[T]he Democrats and Progressives know it. So do the Republicans. And Gov. Phil Scott, he’s acutely aware of it too.
Lawmakers of all political stripes, lobbyists and the administration all know that Scott marches into his second term with fewer troops on his side inside the Statehouse. Of particular importance, Republicans lost 10 seats in the House in the November elections, leaving them at only 43 members, down from 53 last session, which had been just enough for Scott to be able to veto a bill or threaten a veto and know he had the power to back it up.
Scott used that leverage frequently in his first two years, issuing a total of nine vetoes.
Now, with the only way to uphold a veto requiring support from moderate Democrats or independents, Scott will have to play ball more and be more accommodating to the left-leaning leadership in the House and Senate. In addition to fewer vetoes, lawmakers also expect the change in the dynamic will result in fewer proposals they felt came at the eleventh hour and more frequent appearances by administration officials to explain proposals.
Many saw a signal of the sea shift Thursday with the governor’s speech, which lawmakers viewed almost universally as an effort to reach out to them. Afterward, in an interview in his ceremonial office, Scott said the tone of the speech to find “common goals” was an attempt to acknowledge he’d lost political support in the chamber and needed to do a better job working with lawmakers.
“Today was a first step,” he said, trying to present a speech with “common goals” ideas.
His relationship with lawmakers, Scott acknowledged, had not always been smooth. Now, with less support, he said, “I have to do a better job listening to them, and vice versa, so we can agree on the goal, agreeing there first, and finding the path to getting there.”
Part of the communication problems, in the governor’s view, was that he, Speaker Mitzi Johnson, D-South Hero, and Senate President Tim Ashe, D/P-Chittenden, were all new to their roles.
“It was our first two years, it was the dynamics and so forth, I don’t know. I just believe with a clean slate that we’ll be able to engage better. I’m going to work the way I always have, to reach across the aisle to work with others and find ways to do that,” Scott said.
One longtime Republican, Rep. Pat Brennan of Colchester, said he detected a whiff of new confidence among the Democratic leadership, now with a veto-proof majority firmly in hand. On Day 1 of this biennium, Brennan was stripped of his chairmanship of House Transportation, replaced by a liberal Democrat who doesn’t own a car. The move was seen by some as a sign the House will consider some sort of carbon pricing legislation.
Regarding the Democratic leadership, Brennan said: “They seem very self assured at this point. I sense a new, a different kind of assuredness. I won’t say cockiness, that’s not the right word, but they’re very sure of themselves and they’re very pointed in their mission this year and they’re just going to go for it this year.”
Even Brennan — echoing Democrats and Progressives — said Scott will have to be more accommodating.
“I think he’s going to have to be really cognizant of his veto pen,” Brennan said.
“For sure, he’s going to have to be able to bend a little more and without being a little more accommodating, he won’t be able to advance any part of his agenda,” said Brennan, adding this year’s Republican caucus was the smallest since he was first elected in 2002.
Brennan said Scott will have to walk a fine line with liberals and “meet them part way” on issues like increasing the minimum wage.
“He has to be careful to balance the conservativeness with a little bit of liberalness when it comes to budgeting. He obviously needs the support of the majority party but he needs to keep his base party fairly happy too. That’s going to be a little tricky, but I think he can pull it off,” Brennan said.
Sen. Anthony Pollina, P/D-Washington, sent up a signal flare that Scott will have to be more cooperative with left-leaning lawmakers.
“I think that he’ll see soon enough that we’re not going to sit quietly while he unveils policies late in the day or comes up with policies that people know that they’re going to oppose but have to find ways to compromise with him. I think now he’s in a position where he knows he doesn’t have the support he needs to move forward with his agenda, which means it has to be our agenda, a more inclusive agenda and one that we work together from the beginning instead of waiting for the end game,” Pollina said.
Some lawmakers grumbled when Scott rolled out proposals later in the session, two years in a row — the first a proposal to change teachers’ health care plan and last year when his administration recommended using $58 million to avoid a property tax increase.
Regarding an increase in the minimum wage, family leave and college financial assistance, Pollina said a majority of “Vermonters want these things and now we’ll have an opportunity to try to put them together and push them through in a way that actually meets the need of Vermonters.”
Senate Minority Leader Joe Benning, R-Caledonia, said Scott knows the score.
“I think it’s fair to say he knows and understands the numbers. The numbers are such that if the other side wants to do anything, they can do it without too much worry. So it is going to inject a spirit of cooperation (from Scott and Republican lawmakers) and hopefully people will reach consensus,” Benning said.
Stowe Republican Rep. Heidi Scheuermann said she also sees more confidence in the eyes of the Democratic leadership, but think it comes more from gaining experience than increased power. (In the Senate, Democrats and Progressives hold an even larger veto-proof majority, with only six Republicans in the 30-member chamber.)
Scheuermann took a deep breath as she listed all the proposals that Democrats could raise: an increase in the minimum wage; family leave; a carbon proposal; clean water funding, all of which she was concerned would be too expensive in total.
She said her biggest concerns were the governor’s priorities of affordability “could be put in jeopardy now.”
“I felt the last two years we started to turn the financial ship around and I’m afraid we’ll start turning that progress back,” Scheuermann said.
Former Gov. Jim Douglas, who had two vetoes overturned, implored Scott to keep pushing forward. For half of Douglas’ eight-year tenure, the Democrats held a veto-proof majority.
“I would recommend the governor not do anything differently. He has a huge mandate from the people of the state, a strong re-election,” Douglas said. The demographic challenge, he said, should be of concern to all parties. He warned if lawmakers didn’t slow spending, the next recession would be hard.
Asked about the Democratic gains, Douglas said: “The governor has the bully pulpit. He should do exactly what I did, continue to get around the state and talk to people in their communities, and their clubs and businesses and take his message directly to the people.”
Johnson, the House speaker, said Scott overused his veto pen and hoped the change in the power balance in her chamber would lead him to work more collaboratively with lawmakers. She said working on proposals for weeks or months and then having them vetoed, not working together, was “frustrating.”
She said she felt no temptation to push through the Democrat/Progressive agenda.
“That doesn’t do anybody any good. It doesn’t get you legislation that will get you 100 votes” to override a veto, Johnson said. “It’s not the way to sustainable change.”
Sen. Chris Pearson, P/D-Chittenden, agreed with Johnson.
“It’s so tempting to just think of it as yes or no, our way or their way. Actually, the reason this building works well, when it works well, is because everyone is around the table hammering out solutions together,” he said.
One lobbyist pointed out that all Scott had to do on controversial proposals, such as the minimum wage, would be to win over eight moderate Democrats or independents. In the Senate, a veto could also possibly be sustained, though with difficulty. With only six Republicans, sustaining a veto would require support from five conservative Democrats, the lobbyist said. He then ticked off the names of Dick Mazza, Grand Isle; John Rodgers and Bobby Starr, Essex/Orleans; and Jane Kitchell, Caledonia; as four likely supporters of Scott.
In the House, “All he has to do is get eight” Democrats, the lobbyist said, who asked not to be named so he could speak candidly on the topic.
One upside, according to Scott, is that Republican lawmakers who felt they had to back the Republican caucus because they had so few members to spare might be “liberated” to come up with another idea.
“This governor is a collaborator and I think he’s going to continue to do what he does best, which is to collaborate and work with them to achieve the common goals,” said Susanne Young, Scott’s administration secretary.
She said Scott won’t be able to veto legislation as easily but believed there was an “appetite” to find tripartisian solutions.
“He may not have the numbers to override a veto partywise, but it’s going to force all of us to come together, the right, left and the middle and avoid vetoes and potential sustaining of those vetoes and overrides,” she said.
“Our goal is to work together,” Young said.