This commentary is by Dan Delurey, senior fellow for climate and energy at Vermont Law School.
Vermonters and the rest of the world got an important wakeup call on climate change earlier this week.
I know that it is hard to get one’s head around the fact that we are facing a climate emergency and that we have to act on it immediately. That sounds crazy, right? But that is what the scientists are telling us.
I refer to the United Nations Report on Climate Change released Monday, Aug. 9. This is not the first such report put out by the UN or other entities (including the National Climate Assessment issued every four years by the White House). But it may be the last in terms of us having time to heed its warning.
Let’s first review the basics of climate change that the report is based on. Based on human actions, a large amount of carbon-based gases (such as carbon dioxide) have been emitted since humans began using vast amounts of coal, oil and natural gas as energy. Agricultural practices have also contributed, with 10% of U.S. carbon emissions coming from that sector.
These heat-trapping gases remain in the atmosphere for up to hundreds of years, effectively creating a thicker and thicker thermal “blanket” around the Earth, which leads to global warming, which in turn causes climate change. Trees can’t suck carbon dioxide out fast enough and technology to do that isn’t there yet, so that means each day the concentrations of greenhouse gases grow and grow.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which issued the report, was created in 1988 by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations. Its mission is to provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies. Approximately 200 nations are members of the IPCC, and scientists and other experts from around the world work on its reports.
The IPCC, and the new report, focus on a 1.5-degree (Celsius) rise in world temperature since the Industrial Revolution. Scientists know how much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere will lead to how much temperature rise. The 1.5C degree target was agreed to at the Paris Climate Target as the point where serious adverse climate impacts would set in if it was exceeded. Spoiler alert: The new report essentially says reaching that level is unavoidable.
Should you read the report? Being a scientific document, it is not something one would call light reading. But the key section in line with its mission is the one for policymakers. That is readable and allows you to put yourself in the shoes of a policymaker that the report is aimed at. Better yet, that section itself has a two-page “memo” to policymakers.
Here are some key takeaways of the report.
- “It is unequivocal that human influence has warmed the atmosphere, ocean and land.”
- “Widespread and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere have occurred.”
- “Human-induced climate change is already affecting many weather and climate extremes in every region across the globe.”
- There is now strong evidence of “observed changes in extremes such as heat waves, heavy precipitation, droughts and tropical cyclones, and, in particular, their attribution to human influence.”
- “Many changes due to past and future greenhouse gas emissions are irreversible for centuries to millenia.”
- Without human-caused warming, there was “a near zero probability” of some of the recent heat waves and other extreme weather events.
Perhaps one of the most important things to understand about the report is that it does not talk about a “cliff” — that is, this is not a situation whereby we either stop climate change immediately and completely or all is lost. Climate change is already taking place and more is baked in. We can’t stop it. All we can do is slow it down and stabilize the change.
In that sense, the decision on how bad climate change will be is in our hands. The degree of “bad” is up to us.
What does the report say to Vermonters, where, in addition to higher sustained temperatures, the climate impacts will include a change in growing seasons and crop viability and more frequent storms, extreme rainfall and flooding?
As has been evident by the criticism of efforts like the new State Climate Council, some may say that the state and its citizens should not be doing anything on climate, because collectively we are too small to have any real impact so therefore why even try. That logic is valid, given the numbers.
But it is far from valid when one considers the way humanity works. It depends on people not always looking out for only themselves. It also relies on a certain amount of trust that if we act appropriately, others will too, especially when each party understands that if the climate battle is lost, they will have no immunity to its impacts.
For climate change to be stemmed, Vermonters must do what they can and trust that other Americans will also act. In turn, Americans need to trust that other countries will do what they should do. We are clearly all in this together and to not think and act like that is a one-way ticket to the infamous Tragedy of the Commons.
Any change is hard. Changing government, society and industry to reduce emissions and slow down climate change will not be easy. Don’t believe anyone who says otherwise. The hard truth is that there will likely be some pain because we have waited so long to start.
But, just like with a medical condition, the pain may be worse later if not treated immediately, and nontreatment may result in the worst of all outcomes.
We know all we need to know about the science of climate change. We also know the kinds of things that individuals, businesses and governments can do to reduce emissions. (I hope to talk more about the first one in a future column)
Some of us are likely to think that we can wait a few more years, and not make any changes. But emissions of greenhouse gases is a 24/7 occurrence. Any emissions that could have been reduced yesterday are now part of the buildup in the atmosphere today. There is no do-over. And so on.
Climate change is like a heavy plane taking off on a runway. Accumulating emissions are weighing down the plane and scientists are telling us that we are almost at the end of the runway.
Finally, let’s take a generational look at the situation. The new report says that, if we do not stop emissions, our descendants cannot make up for it when they grow up and/or are born. The die will have been cast. The world’s climate and all that is governed by it will have changed too much.
The question to any of us is: Are we going to start acting like we are in a climate emergency or are we going to wait for another report? What kind of information could the next report possibly have that would spur us to action more than this one?
If we are not going to act now, then when?
Regardless of your age, you are going to see the impact of climate change grow over your lifetime due to the emissions that have already happened. Importantly, the report says that, if we do not stop new emissions, those in the future will not be able to make up for it when they grow and/or are born. They will live in a different world than you grew up in. And not all those people in the future are abstract strangers. They include your children, grandchildren, nephews, nieces and other descendants.
If this sounds alarmist, that is because it should be. The alarm is going off and every day we hit the snooze button we will cause a greater impact on us as we live out our lives and as our descendants try to live out theirs.
