John Walters is a political columnist for VTDigger.
It’s still very early, but we may already have seen the signature moment of this year’s Legislature: last Wednesday’s attempt to override Gov. Phil Scott’s veto of a mandatory paid family leave program that, tantalizingly, fell a single vote short. The implications of that failure will be felt through the rest of the session and, perhaps, in this year’s statewide elections.
The initial attention focused on three lawmakers who voted against the override: Rep. Randall Szott, D-Barnard, and two members from Bennington County, Reps. Linda Joy Sullivan, D-Dorset, and Chris Bates, D-Bennington. (Rep. Cynthia Browning, D-Arlington, also voted “no” but that was not a surprise to anyone.) As Seven Days reported on Friday, caucus leadership was convinced that Sullivan’s vote was in the bag, which would have meant a successful override.
“I never committed to a yes or no vote,” Sullivan insisted in a Friday interview. “It’s sad that the party may have misinterpreted my openmindedness as a possible flip.” She said she remained undecided, still poring over the bill, until “about five minutes before they called my name.”
Sullivan had the weirdest political week in quite some time. On Monday, she announced she was running for state auditor — challenging four-term incumbent Doug Hoffer for the Democratic nomination. That’s a tough undertaking at best; she made it even harder two days later when she effectively killed the override. If there was a political calculation in all of this, it’s hard to see what it is.
The run for auditor might prove to be Sullivan’s swan song as a Democrat. If she loses the primary, she could run for reelection as an independent. “That’s always an option,” she said. “I will focus first on the auditor’s race, and deal with that if the time comes.”
Szott came in for his share of opprobrium, partly because he was the only Democrat or Progressive to vote “no” from a left-wing point of view — and also because he seemed to take delight in his caucus’ defeat. “They didn’t listen,” he said immediately after the vote. “I told them they didn’t have the votes, and they didn’t listen.”
He said those exact words to at least three different reporters.
In the past, members who went against their caucus could have expected retribution. “If Ralph Wright were speaker, that whole gang would have been shuffled to other committees where their expertise would have been wasted,” said Rep. Warren Kitzmiller, D-Montpelier, referring to the legendary House speaker who served from 1985 to 1995. Kitzmiller knows from experience; it happened to his late wife Karen, who preceded him in the Legislature. She backed the losing candidate in the vote to succeed Wright, and found herself shunted off to an undesirable committee for two years.
Nothing such from today’s leadership. “My focus right now is on moving forward and preparing members for important upcoming votes,” said House Majority Leader Jill Krowinski, D-Burlington.
That may be more humane than Wright’s arm-twisting, but it doesn’t help caucus discipline. Very soon, the House will face an override vote on a hike in the state’s minimum wage; at least one Democrat who voted “yes” on paid leave, Rep. Charen Fegard, D-Berkshire, has made it clear she’s a “no” on minimum wage.
More showdowns may follow. Legislative leaders are on track to approve bills to create a tax-and-regulate structure for cannabis sales, fight climate change and impose new gun regulations, which may all be vetoed by the governor. Each bill presents its own challenge to the House’s majority caucus, which must keep its members unified to override a veto.
And if the Democrats fail on attempted overrides, they could enter the campaign with little to show on their top priorities. Remember 2018, when the party’s House candidates emphasized paid family leave, minimum wage and climate action? Well, they may be saddled, yet again, with the familiar narrative of Democrats failing to overcome a recalcitrant governor.
Three Democratic renegades — Bates, Sullivan and Szott — may face consequences back home. There is talk of recruiting challengers for their respective Democratic primaries. “I’ve heard rumors, but nothing definite,” said Tom Haley, chair of the Bennington County Democratic Committee, of possible opponents for Bates. Off the record, local Dems are working hard to find some competition for the man who calls himself “The Fishin’ Politician.”
Feelers are also out in Szott’s district, but nothing definite so far. “We had to search pretty hard before we turned him up last time, when [then-representative] Sue Buckholz didn’t run again,” said Bill Kuch, former county committee chair.
On the other hand, some Democrats who voted “yes” may give the Republicans some hope. In 2018, Fegard won by a narrow margin in a normally Republican district. “We are certainly looking at everyone’s vote,” said Deputy Minority Leader Rob LaClair, R-Barre Town. “Our objective is to get more of us down there. We are much more organized than last time.”
Override failures could play a part in statewide contests as well. They’d be a net positive for Scott, who positions himself as the responsible counterbalance to the legislative majority. They might also be good for his Democratic opponent, be it Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman or former education secretary Rebecca Holcombe. Either could argue that Scott is the only obstacle to progressive change, and a new governor is needed to break the stalemate.
The candidate who may have the most to lose is Senate President Pro Tem Tim Ashe, who’s running to succeed Zuckerman. As the legislative insider in a four-way Democratic primary, Ashe could find himself weighed down by the failures of the House majority, over which he has no control.
In reality, though, a string of unsuccessful overrides may make a difference on the margins, but the fundamentals have nothing to do with Statehouse controversies. The Democrats enter 2020 with big advantages in base support, organization and funding — as does Scott in personal popularity and centrist credibility. And the biggest motivator for voters of all stripes will be the presidency of Donald Trump.
There are two definite lessons from the failure of paid family leave. First, it’s extremely difficult to override a gubernatorial veto. A caucus large enough to have a chance is too ideologically diverse to hang together under most circumstances. Second, a divided government will continue to prevent either side from advancing dramatic new initiatives.
Which may be exactly what the voters want.
