Vermont’s unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1 percent in May, according to the latest numbers released by the Vermont Department of Labor.
The bump matches a 0.1 percent increase in the national unemployment rate, which touched 7.6 percent. Vermont’s unemployment rate is the fourth-lowest in the country and the lowest in New England.
“It bounces around,” said Tom Kavet, consulting economist for the Vermont Legislature. He said the 4.0 percent unemployment rate from April had seemed oddly low, and the latest number reflects more of a steady hold than bad news.
The seasonally adjusted rate describes 14,450 Vermonters who report being unemployed — a decline of 3,250 from this time last year, when the jobless rate was 5 percent.
The May 2013 rate does not reflect the layoffs announced last week at IBM’s Essex Junction facility. Of the employees given notice, most were told July 12 would be their last day, according to attendees at Wednesday’s Rapid Response session; their unemployment status likely will not surface until later this summer.
“Companies go in and out of business all the time. But generally the economy is recovering,” Kavet said. He predicted that there will be more opportunities for displaced workers laid off now than there were three years ago. “That’s not to say a layoff is not tough anytime,” he added, but he’s optimistic about the workers’ prospects.
Kavet echoed the sentiments of Secretary of Administration Jeb Spaulding.
“Our economic well being is more dependent on what happens outside the state borders than inside the state borders,” Spaulding said in an interview Thursday.
Growth and decline by sector
Professional and business services showed the strongest growth in May, having added 600 jobs since April to reach 27,100 — a 4.6 percent increase in the past year.
Mathew Barewicz, Vermont’s economic and labor market information chief, pointed out that many laid-off IBM workers may be well positioned to transition into that sector — which includes scientific and technical fields — from the high-tech manufacturing work they’ve been doing.
Manufacturing saw a more modest gain of 0.9 percent with 300 positions added since last year; no measurable growth (or decline) occurred in production of durable goods.
Education and health services also grew overall since 2012, reaching an estimated 62,000 positions for an annual growth of 3.2 percent.
State government employment declined the most, dropping 3.7 percent since 2012 and shedding 1,500 jobs since April.
Construction employment has dropped 2.8 percent since last year, although the sector’s job numbers did climb by 500 between April and May.
Continued recovery efforts
While the Labor Department prepares to assist potentially hundreds of laid-off workers from IBM, and still more from the Energizer battery plant in St. Albans that’s slated to close by September, redevelopment projects represent much of the state government’s efforts to foster economic recovery.
State officials working in conjunction with federal authorities and private businesses are moving forward on a $600 million set of projects in the Northeast Kingdom that designers say could create as many as 10,000 direct, indirect and induced jobs.
A new Brownfield Economic Revitalization Alliance (BERA) was launched earlier in the week to expedite development of industrial brownfields, which “almost always create jobs,” said Deb Markowitz, secretary of the Agency of Natural Resources, in an op-ed Thursday.
“(F)irst during the construction phase and then again as businesses, restaurants, health services and housing take the place of once abandoned and blighted space in the heart of the community,” she wrote.
The first three projects of the new BERA initiative have been selected: The former Fonda property in St. Albans, the Railyard Enterprise Project in Burlington and the 453 Pine St. parcel in Burlington.
Projects such as these are as helpful as they can be, Kavet said. But he believes there’s very little influence state policy can exert on job creation.
“There are little things around the edges that can be done. … And they’re worth doing,” he said. Kavet pointed to the location of a new state office in Barre as a small choice that can make a big difference for the recipient town.
But for the most part, if the U.S. economy is growing, you’re going to find a lot more growth in Vermont.”
