[V]ermont would need an additional 200 to 350 acres of photovoltaic cells each year to meet anticipated power demands in Vermont by 2050, according to future scenarios presented to state leaders Thursday.
The proposed scenarios could meet the legal requirements for power generation by the year 2050, but they are meant to be considered as possible developments, rather than understood as plans or goals, state experts told members of the Solar Siting Task Force.
At the second meeting of the task force, a legislative study committee charged with helping write a law to guide where solar farms can be built, Asa Hopkins, Director of the Planning and Energy Resources Division of the state’s Public Service Department, presented the challenges in meeting the state’s long-term energy goals.
Renewable energy sources account for about 16 percent of Vermonters’ total energy consumption. The 2050 goal is to raise that to 90 percent. All of the energy-production scenarios Hopkins presented were based on the assumption that Vermonters want most of their energy produced in state.
“This 90 percent goal reflects a strong desire among Vermonters to be energy secure and energy independent, to ensure stable prices, and as much as possible to rely on sources indigenous to Vermont,” Hopkins said.
“We don’t have local fossil fuel resources, or nuclear fuel resources, and so the resources indigenous to Vermont are renewables,” he said.
“We’re trying to do our part to try to mitigate climate change, and meet the state’s greenhouse reduction goals … moving to a more efficient and renewable energy mix helps keep more money local, resulting in a state economic benefit,” he said.
The figures make up an important piece of the state’s new Comprehensive Energy Plan, which officials anticipate releasing to the public within weeks.
The plan raises the state’s 16 percent renewable energy use to 25 percent by 2025, Hopkins said.
The state is using current technology to develop models for energy-production projections decades into the future, Hopkins said. Current projections show that 150 kilowatts of power is generated for every acre of solar panels, Hopkins said.
If the state used solar cells to deliver the majority of future power needs, an additional 8,000 to 13,000 acres of panels would need to be built over the next 35 years.
Policymakers intend to put their “thumb on the scale” and encourage solar developers to install panels on structures, several task force members said. There are at present roughly 3,650 acres of commercial building area in the state, Hopkins said.
Demand for power in Vermont is expected to be 9 terawatt-hours per year in 2050, Hopkins said. That projection assumes dramatic reductions in power requirements as the result of improved efficiency and conservation measures, Hopkins said.
The state of Vermont currently uses between 5 and 6 terawatt-hours per year.
Members of the Solar Siting Task Force say they’re in an “exploratory phase” now, prior to developing and delivering recommendations to the Legislature by mid-January.
The nascent task force had some detractors during a half-hour public comment period following Hopkins’ presentation and another by landscape architect and planner David Raphael.
Kathleen Nelson disputed the group’s credibility. The task force, she said, does not include a single public advocate and is stacked with industry representatives.
“This task force is devoted to promoting the industry,” she said.
Montpelier resident Ben Eastwood said communities might benefit from community solar arrays as an alternative to large installations put in place by out-of-state corporations.
Vermonters in general support the state’s renewable energy goals, Gabrielle Stebbins, the executive director of Renewable Energy Vermont and a task force member.
“The majority of Vermonters, when you poll them, they still poll very much in support of conservation, and renewables, and having local energy, just like they support local foods,” she said.
Noelle MacKay, commissioner of the Department of Housing and Community Development, said task force members are still trying to pin down what issues confront the group.
“I think we’re still in the exploratory phase,” she said.
The group’s goals still need to be precisely articulated, she said. They must also determine how to arrive at those goals, how to meet the concerns of members of the public, and how to meet the needs of developers.
“I think this issue is really complex,” MacKay said. “There are a lot of different pieces.
“The Legislature put this committee together, and assigned who’s on it,” she said. “The people who are there will do their best to find the facts, to understand the issues, and make some thoughtful recommendations to the Legislature this year.”
