In the final stretch, no sure bet for Vermont’s Democratic gubernatorial primary

Garrison Nelson, UVM political science professor

There is no predicting this one. Many Democrats haven’t decided yet who they’re going to vote for in the gubernatorial primary on Aug. 24. Even the pundits are flummoxed by what they see as a strong finish for a wide field of Democratic candidates in an elbow-to-elbow bid for the opportunity to oppose Republican Brian Dubie in the General Election.

The race is tough to call for two reasons, experts say: A large number of undecided voters are having a tough time winnowing out a standout Democratic nominee from a wide field of qualified candidates; and an anticipated low voter turnout for the new summer primary date.

The last time Vermont saw such a contested race was in 1980, according to longtime Vermont journalist Chris Graff. That year, six Republicans vied for a chance to challenge Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., who had just finished his first term in office and went on to win, despite the brace of GOP primary challengers.

Chris Graff

This year’s gubernatorial race is already shaping up to be the most expensive in Vermont history. Dubie and the Democrats have raised nearly $3 million already – two and a half months before the General Election. By comparison, Con Hogan, Doug Racine and Jim Douglas raised $2.26 million in 2002.

Much of the money in this year’s race has been spent on TV advertising. Collectively, the Democratic candidates have spent $500,000 on television ads, according to Eric Davis, professor emeritus of political science at Middlebury College. He anticipates they’ll spend an additional $100,000 in the final primary push.

Eric Davis

The five contenders – Peter Shumlin, Deb Markowitz, Doug Racine, Matt Dunne and Susan Bartlett – have run credible campaigns to the end, and they have managed to do so without engaging in too many bitter personal slams or grudge matches. In spite of the long, intense slog — they have been together constantly over the last 10 months, attending about 60 forums – the gloves have rarely come off. In fact, they agree on most major policy issues with a few exceptions, most notably how to deal most effectively with the state’s $115 million budget deficit in fiscal year 2012.

Garrison Nelson, professor of political science at the University of Vermont, summed it up this way: “These people aren’t all that different. The fact that all five are in the race means there is no (Democratic) party organization in Vermont. If there was, they’d say, ‘Matt, you run for lieutenant governor, Susan you run for auditor.’”

Pundits differ on the outcome

Vermonters (and journalists) turn to Davis, Nelson and Graff for pearls of wisdom on all things political and their deep understanding of the sometimes quixotic, even contrarian, nature of Vermont voters.

This year their insights are more important than ever. That’s in part because there are no polls to go on this year (media outlets, which in the past have sponsored polls, haven’t done so this year, perhaps for financial reasons). Consequently, interested voters are relying more than ever on their own recognizance, and they often count on advice from the aforementioned prognosticators who have assiduously studied the campaigns as they’ve unfolded. Though Davis, Nelson and Graff often separately provide what can become an informal consensus forecast to the political climate as electoral storms pass, in this instance they disagree on who is in the lead and how the current political climate will affect the final outcome of the race.

Davis says there is no clear frontrunner; four of the candidates, he believes, are bunched together in the final push. Similarly, Graff says that Racine, Markowitz and Dunne, for different reasons, are equally viable would-be winners, though he says Shumlin’s recent gained momentum could make him a frontrunner. Nelson is the most definite: He sees two candidates leading the pack – Markowitz and Shumlin.

Peter Shumlin on the trail, photo from Peter Shumlin for Governor Web site

They all agree, however, on three things: whoever gets the most Vermonters out to the polls on Tuesday will win; Bartlett has no chance of beating the other candidates (Graff said she might siphon off 5 percent of the vote); and Democrats are looking for the one candidate who can beat Brian Dubie.

“I’m increasingly of the view that … there’s not going to be much of a gap,” Davis said. “Dunne, Markowitz, Racine and Shumlin will all be bunched close together. I’m assuming somewhere in the 40,000 to 50,000 voter turnout range, and my guess is the first-place finisher will be in the low 30 percent range; 15,000 votes could win this thing. And I don’t think there’s going to be that big a gap between first and fourth place.”

Davis and Graff both said they think the primary winner may only hold a lead of a few thousand – or even a few hundred – votes. If it’s that close, will there be a recount? No, according to Davis and Graff. “I can’t imagine that if a certified count showed a winner, that any of the candidates” would demand a recount, Graff said.

Even now, roughly 25 percent of likely Democratic primary voters have narrowed it down to two candidates but are still undecided, Graff said.

“It gets down to a gut feeling, and you never really know what sways people. Those uncommitted voters are trying to figure out who can beat Brian Dubie. It’s just incredibly fluid. Unless they’ve been committed for months, they’re just not sure.”

Graff said with four dogs in the hunt, it’s conceivable that Deb, Peter, Matt or Doug could win. “When you have such a light turnout and this many candidates, it gets impossible to know,” Graff said. “Let’s say, Peter Shumlin has the momentum (and I think he probably does), and he’s gaining votes. Who is he taking votes from – Deb, Matt or Doug? Is it enough that he is in the lead, or is he taking votes from Deb and Doug, and does that leave Matt with the most votes?”

Secretary of State Deb Markowitz on the campaign trail

Had the election been held in June, Davis said, Markowitz would have won and Racine would have come in second place. “She was far enough ahead in June that the others would not have been able to close the gap,” Davis said.

Graff disagreed: “If you were to map this based on the conventional wisdom,” Racine would have beat out Markowitz in June. In any case, the last two TV debates have not been “good for Deb,” Graff said. “(Deb) has tried to get through this whole campaign on JumpstartVT,” Graff said, referring to her economic plan. “It’s a hard fallback position for her.”

Markowitz continues to run a strong campaign, in Davis’ view. She has the most paid staff of any of the Democratic campaigns, and she has worked hard to identify voters who will support her.

Though Racine had a good June – he picked up endorsements from three unions, the Vermont NEA, Vermont State Employees Association and the Vermont chapter of the AFL-CIO, along with the Vermont League of Conservation Voters – Davis said he lost steam in July because of his low fundraising numbers (he raised roughly $100,000 for fiscal year 2010, less than half of what Shumlin and Dunne brought in and less than a third of Markowitz’s total).

Racine may have been banking too hard on the endorsements and his name recognition in Chittenden County, according to Nelson. He expressed surprise that Racine’s endorsements didn’t translate into more money, and he said Markowitz, conversely, has money but few endorsements.

“I don’t know what happened to Doug, but the air has been let out of that balloon,” Nelson said. “You have to show you want it, and you don’t get that feeling from Doug. … He (Racine) just hasn’t expended the effort that Markowitz or Shumlin have. There’s no question Shumlin has stepped up to the plate. He’s working hard. He wants the job. Presumably, if he wins the primary, he’ll hit the ground running.”

Graff said Racine’s fourth-place fundraising finish in July gave Shumlin and Dunne an opportunity to catch up. Shumlin, who isn’t well known in Chittenden County, essentially bought name recognition with a high-energy, focused TV ad campaign, Graff said. The simplicity of Shumlin’s message – “I deliver on tough things” – may give voters the impression he can beat Dubie, Graff said.

The Burlington Free Press endorsed Shumlin on Sunday, and that, too, gave the Windham County senator a boost. Graff described the backing as a “shocker” – he would have expected the newspaper to endorse the known local quantity, Racine, or Dunne, the standard bearer for technology. The Shumlin campaign took immediate advantage of the spotlight by incorporating the announcement into TV and radio ads.

Davis pooh-poohed the newspaper’s endorsement. “I don’t think in and of itself it will help him with votes,” Davis said. “The most important endorsements are those of organizations or senior politicians. Leahy is not going to make an endorsement, but if someone of his stature had, that would have made a difference.”

Sen. Doug Racine

Davis says Racine got back on track in August. “He’s found his voice, he’s telling voters ‘I’m not going to over promise, I’m the pragmatist who gets things done in the Legislature,’” Davis said. “That message is catching on with some voters, and he has good volunteer support from the endorsements.”

Davis said no matter who takes the prize on Tuesday, it’s important for the four who lose to vigorously endorse the winner. In addition, he said the unsuccessful candidates should share lists of donors, committed supporters and contacts.

The Vermont Democratic Party will hold a noon “unity” rally in Burlington next Wednesday. Robert Dempsey, executive director of the party, said the event will be for all statewide candidates. Leahy and Congressman Peter Welch will be on hand to give their blessings to the winners.

The winner will not only get a bounce after the primary but will be battle-tested for the General Election, Nelson said, and ready to challenge Dubie, who has “let his campaign atrophy.”

Nelson predicts Dubie will have a tough time ramping up his campaign after the primary. The lieutenant governor has never won on his own, Nelson said, because he’s been able to rely on the coattails of Gov. Jim Douglas, who is a consummate campaigner.

“Dubie is in rocking chair mode,” Nelson said. “He’s waiting for the Democratic primary to get over. It’s hard to start a campaign if you’re sitting back watching other people meeting reporters and getting the headlines.”

Shortly after the primary, Davis expects Dubie to release his economic development plan. Then the Republican Governors Association, he said, will likely launch attack ads on the Democratic winner.

“That’s been their modus operandi in other states,” Davis said. “The RGA, under its own name or under political action committees, runs attack ads, and they leave the Republican candidate to run positive ads. I’m sure we’ll see that in Vermont.”