Dubie pin
Vermont Governor: Dubie (R) 47%, Markowitz (D) 40%
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Rasmussen reports released its latest poll on the Vermont governor’s race.
Here’s what the site says:
Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie remains ahead of all five of his Democratic opponents in the race for governor of Vermont, crossing the 50% mark in four of the match-ups.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Vermont finds Secretary of State Deb Markowitz as Dubie’s closest Democratic rival. Dubie, a Republican, leads Markowitz 47% to 40%.
In the only previous Rasmussen Reports survey of the race in March, Dubie posted a 46% to 39% lead over Markowitz.
Dubie leads Racine 51% to 36%; Shumlin 55% to 36%; Dunne 52% to 32% and Bartlett 55% to 29%.
Permalink |
If, when they were asking their questions, the firm doing the polling on behalf of Rasmussen told those polled that the Vermont primary is held on September 14th — which is the date provided within their report, then that could lead to confusion and potentially result in people not voting on August 24th when it is actually held this year.
It would help if a copy a script of the poll query that was used by the firm Rasmussen used in their polling of Vermont residents was obtained if at all possible in order to find out.
If they did mention the date of the primary during the polling calls, then they should call back each and everyone one of those people they polled and inform them of the actual primary date or otherwise make sure those persons are provided the information to make up for their error.
Permalink |
Rasmussen polls should be intepreted cautiously. As explained at the methodology link on Rasmussen’s Web site, Rasmussen uses automated prompts with touch-tone responses rather than live operators to collect its data. The Rasmussen method is not as effective as live operators in coming up with a sample that includes likely voters. (For example, how effective is an automated response system in screening out those under 18 who pick up the phone?) Also, rather than make calling a larger number of respondents to get a sample that is representative in terms of age, gender, and other demographic characteristics, Rasmussen weights the responses they do get to come up with an adjusted sample.
Also, this poll is not much help in terms of trying to project results in the Democratic primary, since it attempts to measure candidates’ support in the general election. Hopefully some media organization will have the money to conduct a public pre-Democratic primary poll. Public poll numbers would serve as a useful second opinion in assessing the candidate poll results that will likely leak out between now and the primary.
All of that said, there are some other interesting findings in the Rasmussen poll, which, as noted above, should be taken with caution.
1. Jim Douglas has a 65-34 approval rating as his term ends.
2. Vermonters are much less supportive of repealing the federal health care plan, and of an immigration law such as Arizona’s, than voters nationally.
Permalink |
Eric Davis: When I tried to click upon that link as well as other links provided within the report I was forbidden access to those linked pages or sites. Thank you for providing your analysis of the Rasmussen poll, including concerning their methodology, which — by the way — I agree with you about.
Permalink |
Rasmussen’s poll called my house. I tried to participate but the touch tone response system did not work properly and I was disconnected.
Let the poll show that I am supporting Doug Racine.
Permalink |
No matter what the flaws, it is a sad result, very sad result, considering how Vermont has suffered under the Douglas/Dubie team over their tenure. We have a chance to finally end this and this poll says that Dubie, who has not even bothered to campaign, is well ahead. It’s sad.