This commentary is by Nicholas Adams, a resident of South Burlington.
Vermont is in a very dangerous position with the current housing issues, but the continuing climate crisis will bring insurmountable pain to this already critical issue.
Climate change is already being felt and seen all over the country, from prolonged drought to shorter maple syrup seasons. Climate change is not uniform and impacts regions based on a multitude of factors, such as current climate systems, past and current human influence, topography, height above sea level, and more.
The vast majority of scientists agree that anthropogenic climate change is here and is going to become more extreme, even with immediate action. We have seen more extreme and intense wildfires all over the West from a decades-long drought, creating conditions so dry that scientists say they have not been seen in the region in over 1,200 years. This is all while the East Coast sees more severe storms and hurricanes.
Nowhere on Earth is safe from any impacts, but it may appear that some are currently feeling the impacts more today than others.
Vermont has yet to see extensive drought that distresses our agriculture or creates wildfires that tear through our communities or sea level rise on our coasts. Many are beginning to see the New England and the Great Lakes Regions as safe havens from these most visible outcomes of climate change.
This has driven the conversation for those that have been impacted — like the residents of Paradise, California, in 2021, after a wildfire destroyed most of the town — abvout where to move their families to be safe from future climate change driven catastrophes. Many of the residents of the lost town of Paradise moved across the country to New England, with three families known to have moved to Vermont.
A recent small NBC poll asked recent arrivals to state their reasons for moving here and one-third of all participants gave climate-related reasons for their move. PBS Terra, a member station of PBS, used six experts on climate change to create metrics for climate change safety and then used county data to see what areas were most “safe” to climate change. They found that Lamoille County, Vermont, was the safest county in the nation for the most direct climate change impacts.
These findings give way to a narrative of Vermont being a safe haven for those driven from their homes in the most visible of climate change impacts to date.
This does not mean Vermont is safe from climate change. The ecosystems that much of the state and its culture have depended on for hundreds of years are changing rapidly. More severe storms, shorter winters, and even some droughts have already been seen across the state in the past years, partially due to climate change and its effects on the now-erratic jet stream.
The story that is currently being created as Vermont as a safe haven is partially true and untrue and could put the state in a very precarious position as the climate crisis worsens.
As many Vermonters know, the state is in a deep housing shortage, much like the rest of the country. When, and not if, even more refugees from the climate crisis come, the state’s poor housing stock will not be able to support them, as it cannot even support the current small population growth.
The majority of economists agree that climate change will significantly impact finances. As Vermont begins to economically feel the harsh impacts of climate change, the state will have already passed the window of opportunity where it is able to mitigate climate change impacts and support future climate refugees. Any money now is far more crucial than the money in the future, so action must be taken today.
The state must invest and support demand-side mitigation like green zoning, small-scale renewables, and green infrastructure, while also planning these houses with climate change impacts in mind and incentivizing climate mitigation like small wetlands for water runoff.
Large-scale single-family zoning will not be wholly conducive to effectively balance housing and ecosystem protection, where mixed-use housing could be far more beneficial.
The state has many of these incentives and policies in place, but they need further resources and financing to be able to effectively create affordable housing for the current and future residents of Vermont.
This state can be a safe haven for those driven from their homes and continue our path on climate change mitigation and adaptation, if we act now.
