In Vermont’s most competitive statewide race, Democrat Molly Gray and Republican Scott Milne are crisscrossing the state, holding honk-and-waves, and flooding the airwaves as they compete for Vermont’s second-highest political office.
At stake Nov. 3 is a lieutenant governor’s office that holds little direct power over policymaking, but comes with a large political platform. Many of Vermont’s past lieutenant governors have gone on to seek higher office, including Gov. Phil Scott.
Early Thursday morning, as commuter traffic snaked onto the St. Albans State Highway to get on the interstate, Scott Milne and about a dozen of his supporters and fellow Republican candidates stood along the roadside, waving green campaign signs.
The day before, Democratic nominee Molly Gray stood near a church on Burlington’s North Avenue, her eyes peering out over a mask and under a winter hat, standing with supporters and Democratic House members seeking reelection, waving at drivers and holding up her blue campaign sign.
Milne, wearing a mask decorated with small shapes of the state of Vermont, said the Covid-19 pandemic has made it a “weird year” for campaigning.
As Election Day nears, Milne has been attending honk-and-waves, holding Zoom calls with Vermont student groups, and making some stops at local diners.
But the pandemic has made it a challenging year for traditional retail politics.
“You lose votes if you try to shake somebody’s hand,” Milne said.
The closing days of Gray’s campaign are starkly different from the pre-Covid beginning in February, when she launched her campaign in a packed brewery in Burlington’s South End.
Gray says the pandemic has highlighted the importance of her political priorities, including a paid family leave program and expanded access to child care and broadband.
“This pandemic has exposed the same issues that are the generational issues that we face. And I think it’s really been a testament to the moment that we’re in, and out of our greatest challenges come our greatest opportunities,” Gray said.
Polling issued by Vermont Public Radio and Vermont PBS in late September found that, while Gray had a 4% lead with support from 35% of voters, Milne was close behind at 31%. The survey was a statistical tie, given the poll’s 4% margin of error. At the time, about a quarter of voters were still undecided.
In recent days, both candidates have been buying 11th-hour television advertisements. Gray has spent $32,000 on TV ads since Oct. 25, according to campaign finance filings, and Milne $35,000.
Milne leads Gray in overall fundraising, according to the latest campaign finance filings from Oct. 30. He has raised $452,000, and spent $444,000 on his campaign. But $287,000 of that was raised from his personal funds, including $140,000 he spent in late October.
Since Gray announced her run, she has raised $427,000 and spent $360,000.
In the August primary, Gray, who had never run for office before, scored a commanding victory over three other Democrats, including Senate President Pro Tem Tim Ashe, D/P Chittenden. Gray received endorsements from former Democratic Govs. Madeleine Kunin and Peter Shumlin, along with former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine, and won the vast majority of counties across the state.
Milne won even more towns than Gray during the primary, but faced a less competitive race.
In an interview in August, former Democratic Gov. Howard Dean praised Gray’s statewide approach to campaigning, noting that she didn’t focus only on voters in liberal Chittenden County.
“There’s a lot of Chittenden County politicians who have done well here — they’ve piled up huge margins in the county that is three or four times bigger than every other place,” Dean said. “Molly didn’t do it that way and when a politician comes out with her numbers like that throughout the state, you better watch out.”
Matthew Dickinson, a professor of political science at Middlebury College, said this year’s lieutenant governor’s race could set the stage for future races for governor and Congress.
“Holding statewide office in Vermont has been historically a stepping stone to those more important positions, so obviously winning a statewide office has put you in the conversation about moving up,” Dickinson said. If she wins on Tuesday, Gray could “sort of move up to the forefront of the party.”
For Milne, Dickinson said, the race is probably his “last shot at statewide office.” In 2014, Milne nearly unseated Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin, losing by only 2,434 votes. In 2016, he challenged Democratic U.S. Senator Patrick Leahy, but got only 35 percent of the vote compared to Leahy’s 60 percent.
“He’s run twice before, he’s investing a lot of money in this, and I think it’s important for him to win something,” Dickinson said.
Milne said he is confident this year, and senses an enthusiasm among voters that reminds him of the last 10 days of his 2014 race for governor.
This year, Milne has aligned himself with Gov. Phil Scott, the popular moderate Republican who’s seeking reelection. Milne says he wants to be “a partner, not an adversary,” for Scott.
The current lieutenant governor, David Zuckerman, is a Progressive Democrat, and is challenging Scott in the gubernatorial race.
Milne’s policy platform includes tax breaks and incentives, and a proposal to reform the state’s education finance system. His campaign has also been characterized by political attacks against Gray.
The Milne camp has repeatedly criticized Gray for not voting consistently in elections, including the 2016 general election, and has attempted to characterize her as dishonest. The campaign often points to a false claim she made about voting in the 2016 election.
“I have questions about my opponent’s credibility,” Milne said. “I think the more people looked at my opponent, the more they realized ‘God forbid something happens to Phil, who’s ready to be governor?’ We win that race hands down.”
Earlier this month, Milne’s campaign challenged Gray to prove she filed taxes in Vermont between 2016 and 2019, part of a broader line of attack questioning Gray’s “residency” in Vermont during 15 months living in Switzerland. Gray argues that she remained a resident, and compared her human rights work with a National Guard member being deployed abroad.
Gray provided documents to VTDigger last month showing that she filed taxes on time those four years, including 2017 when she lived for most of the year in Switzerland. But Gray didn’t pay Vermont taxes that year.
“In 2017, Molly filed Vermont income tax returns, but did not owe Vermont taxes,” Gray’s campaign manager, Samantha Sheehan, wrote in an email to VTDigger. “As stated repeatedly, Molly returned home permanently to Vermont in 2011 and filed Vermont income taxes every year since.”
Peter Teachout, a constitutional law professor at the Vermont Law School, is among a half dozen prominent attorneys who have said Gray is eligible, and would prevail in court if challenged. Milne hasn’t said whether he will contest Gray’s eligibility should he lose.
Gray, a prosecutor in the attorney general’s criminal division, criticized Milne this week for running a negative campaign.
“Scott Milne has spent almost the entirety of his campaign focused on attacking his opponent. The only other person who I know who does that is Donald Trump,” Gray said. “We don’t need Donald Trump in Montpelier; we don’t need Donald Trump in Vermont. We reject that.”
While the Gray campaign has avoided negative campaigning, a pro-Gray super-PAC funded an ad this month criticizing Milne for the support he has received from the Republican State Leadership Committee, which the ad said is funded by “corporate tobacco, the NRA, Koch brothers and Trump donors.”
The organization has spent more than $200,000 on media buys for Milne.
Despite the pandemic, the Gray campaign has focused on statewide retail politics. Between the primary and the general election, she held eight community forums in different parts of the state.
“I think that’s why we were so successful in the primary — to really get statewide support — and the strategy is the same in the general,” she said.
Milne said Gray’s Democratic Party affiliation is an advantage in the race, and early endorsements from members of Vermont’s Democratic establishment will give her a boost.
“St. Patrick and the pairs of Peters and Queen Madeline and everybody else came out and anointed her over everybody else in the party in the spring,” Milne said, referring to Leahy, Shumlin, Kunin and U.S. Rep. Peter Welch. “It’s unprecedented isn’t it?”
Welch and Leahy didn’t formally endorse Gray until after the primary.
But Milne has received endorsements from some Democrats, including Sen. Debbie Ingram, who ran against Gray in the August primary; Rep. Linda Joy Sullivan, D-Dorset; and former Democratic Sen. Bob Hartwell.
Former Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, who was campaigning with Milne on Thursday morning, said he believes Milne will appeal to voters because “he’s very middle of the road on issues.”
Dubie said Milne has an advantage because Vermonters have “already gotten to know him” during his previous runs for office.
“The fact that he’s had the previous campaigns and this campaign — he’s worked hard, and I think Vermonters will recognize him and reward him for that,” Dubie said. “He’s been to the Barton Fair, he’s been to Bennington Battle days, he’s done these things, the retail side, that campaigns this time just aren’t all able to do.”
Colin Meyn contributed reporting.
