With less than a month to go before the voting deadline in the Nov. 3 election, Democratic leaders in the Vermont Legislature hope to maintain a supermajority coalition of Progressive, Democratic and independent lawmakers that could potentially override a Republican governor’s veto.
Little is expected to change in the Vermont Senate, with Republicans clinging to just six of the 30 seats in the upper chamber. Only two races have the potential to create a shakeup.
But in the Vermont House, it’s a different matter.
In the 2018 election, Democrats picked up 12 seats — bringing the party’s total to 95 of the 150 seats. Along with seven Progressives and a handful of left-leaning independents, House Speaker Mitzi Johnson, D-South Hero, and Majority Leader Jill Krowinski, D-Burlington, have held a commanding edge over the House Republicans.
However, this election, with a slew of Democratic retirements, Republicans hope to gain more seats in the House.
Here are the top races to watch in the runup to Nov. 3.
Jump to district:
Senate: Essex-Orleans | Rutland
House: Lamoille-1 | Chittenden-8-3 | Bennington-4 | Grand Isle-Chittenden | Caledonia-Washington | Lamoille-2
The race is on in two Senatorial districts
Essex-Orleans
While there are two Democratic incumbents in Essex-Orleans, Sen. John Rodgers’ failure to file candidacy papers before the primary election deadline has thrown uncertainty into the race.
Rodgers, who has run as a Democrat but whose vote is always a wild card, is now running as an independent.
Longtime Democratic incumbent Sen. Bobby Starr is thought to be safe.
Rodgers and Starr are facing off against Democrat Ron Horton, and Republicans Russ Ingalls and Jonathan Morin.
In the August primaries, Ingalls earned 3,318 votes, the most of any candidate. Starr won 2,835 votes and Horton won 2,237. Morin, a write-in, garnered 266. As a write-in on the Democratic ticket, Rodgers took home 171.
Rutland
With Republican Sen. Jim McNeil’s departure from the Statehouse, there is an open seat in the Rutland Senate district and a crowded 10-person field vying for it.
Incumbent Sens. Brian Collamore, a Republican, and Cheryl Hooker, a Democrat, are both running for re-election, and two Democrats, four independents and two Republicans also eye the vacant seat.
The candidates include Republicans Joshua C. Terenzini and Terry K. Williams, Democrats Larry Courcelle and Greg Cox, and independents Brittney Cavacas, Casey Jennings, Richard Lenchus and Michael Shank.
Races in the House
Lamoille-1
After incumbent Rep. Heidi Scheuermann, R-Stowe, squeaked out a win in 2018 — besting Marina Meerburg 1,366 to 1,280 — she is facing another tough challenge this fall from Democrat Jo Sabel Courtney, a Democrat who was unopposed in the primary.
Sabel Courtney has raised $16,900 and spent $4,200 on the race that the Vermont Democratic Party sees as winnable, since it nearly flipped the district two years ago.
Scheuermann, who did not formally begin campaigning until just before the Aug. 11 primary, has raised $14,755. The Republican incumbent has also spent more than $15,000 on her re-election bid, including more than $3,000 on newspaper advertisements.
Chittenden-8-3
First-time candidate Alyssa Black of Essex is challenging longtime incumbent Rep. Robert Bancroft, R-Westford.
Black has been active over the past two years — along with her husband — in advocating for waiting periods for firearm purchases. Black’s advocacy began after her son Andrew Black went into a Chittenden County gun store, then traveled back to his Essex home and fatally shot himself.
Black has raised $7,656 and spent $3,400 on her campaign. Bancroft has brought in $4,000, including backing from megadonor Lenore Broughton who pumped $3,600 into his campaign.
Bennington-4
This House district in southern Vermont is another case of an incumbent Democrat-turned-independent facing a challenge from the party.
Incumbent Rep. Cynthia Browning is now running as an independent and Seth Bongartz is the Democratic challenger.
Incumbent Democrat Kathleen James is also running for re-election.
As VTDigger reported earlier this summer, Browning has had a reputation in the Statehouse as a political gadfly.
She has held her seat since 2007, is staunchly principled and has often voted against Demcoratic Party priorities.
Browning has also repeatedly challenged leadership, as she did in March when she requested a quorum — for the sake of upholding Statehouse rules — that led to 76 state representatives traveling to Montpelier to gather in person during the heart of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Bongartz spent nearly two decades on the Burr and Burton Academy board of trustees and served in the Vermont House for two terms in the 1980s.
Grand Isle-Chittenden
Democrats are trying to win back the second seat in this district, home of House Speaker Mitzi Johnson.
Andy Julow, a small business owner, is the Democratic candidate trying to unseat Rep. Leland Morgan, R-Milton.
Republican candidate Michael Morgan, who lost to Johnson in 2018, is trying his luck again this fall.
Caledonia-Washington
Rep. Kitty Toll, D-Danville, longtime chair of the House Appropriations Committee, has decided to call it quits in the Statehouse, teeing up what is expected to be a competitive race for the open seat.
Democrat Henry Pearl, a Danville dairy farmer, selectboard member and political newcomer, is facing off against Republican Bruce Melendy. Melendy, who has been chair of the Danville School Board, challenged Toll unsuccessfully in 2010.
Pearl has raised $3,165 and has spent more than $2,000 this election cycle. While Melendy was unopposed in the Republican primary, Pearl beat two other candidates, capturing the Democratic nomination with 48% of the vote.
Lamoille-2
Two-term Democratic Rep. Matt Hill has decided not to seek another two years in the Statehouse, and three candidates are eying Hill’s empty seat.
Incumbent Dan Noyes, D-Wolcott, is seeking re-election in the two-seat district, and the race for the open seat is between Democrat Kate Donnally and Republicans Richard Bailey and Shayne Spence.
In the Democratic primary, Donnally outperformed Noyes, receiving 39% of the vote compared to Noyes’ 35%. Donnally also won the Progressive nomination as a write-in candidate.
