Sen. John Rodgers’ reelection bid for one of two Essex-Orleans seats likely won’t be hampered by his inability to meet a deadline or string of controversial comments, political observers in the Northeast Kingdom say.
But the option that was left for the incumbent Democrat — to run as an independent after missing his party’s primary filing date — makes his prospects more uncertain than expected in this five-way race.
“There’s a powerful advantage to incumbency,” said Rep. Sam Young, D-Greensboro, who beat Rodgers by one vote in a five-way House race 10 years ago. “But missing that deadline really threw things in doubt.”
The Senate district consists of about 40 communities across Essex, Orleans, Franklin and Lamoille counties. Rodgers, 55, serves alongside partymate Sen. Bobby Starr, the longtime Troy legislator seeking reelection, and many believe Starr has a lock on his seat.
The two incumbents face challenges from Democrat Ron Horton of Jay, Republican Russ Ingalls of Newport and Republican Jonathan Morin of Holland.
Rodgers missed his filing deadline in May. He had tried mailing his election documents to the Orleans County clerk a few days before the cutoff, thinking he had enough time. But the paperwork didn’t arrive until the day after the deadline, the Caledonian Record reported at the time.
That may have emboldened the three challengers — all political newcomers — said Scott Wheeler, a former Barton Chronicle reporter who runs the Northland Journal, a monthly magazine chronicling Orleans County.
“The missteps there got the other people, the other candidates, thinking there’s a real opportunity,” said Wheeler, who also represented the Orleans-1 House district as a Republican from 2006 to 2010.
Wheeler chats with people as he delivers copies of his magazine to stores around the area, and he said most believe Ingalls, a real estate agent, could pose a strong threat to Rodgers.
“His name has been emblazoned throughout the years on radio ads,” Wheeler said of Ingalls. “A lot of people vote for name recognition.”
Wheeler and others think few voters will care about the deadline bungle.
“I have not had a single person give two hoots that John missed the deadline,” said Candy Moot, a part-time Morgan resident who worked as a Statehouse lobbyist for 30 years and supports Rodgers.
But Moot thinks voters may be charged to vote straight-line tickets because of national politics, and she fears that could hurt Rodgers’ chances down the ballot.
“I don’t know how this one will sugar off, with two Democrats, two Republicans and an incumbent who’s now running as an independent,” she said.
Young had a similar prediction. “If they’re just voting party line, which I think a lot of people will be doing in this election, it’s going to cost him votes,” he said of Rodgers, whom he supports.
To people watching Kingdom politics, the election this fall seems like a race for second among Rodgers, Horton and Ingalls. The potential for a tight contest has some considering whether controversies involving Rodgers could tip the scales.
The Glover senator has turned heads with some of his comments in recent years.
During a legislative debate on a gun control bill in 2018, Rodgers said it seems like the state has been overpopulated by people who want to take away Vermont traditions.
Laura Wilson, then chair of the Essex County Democratic Committee, called the remarks an “ugly attack” on newcomers to the state and said the committee could pull its support of the senator.
This January, Rodgers called a critic a “clueless f—” via email. In June, he wrote an email to Senate colleagues challenging “any snippy little bitch” who questions why he misses meetings to walk a mile in his shoes.
The comment drew criticism from the Senate’s Democratic leadership.
But those in Kingdom political circles say those incidents probably won’t mean much come election time.
“The Northeast Kingdom has people who work with their hands and their back and take a shower at the end of the day and not in the morning,” said Essex County State’s Attorney Vince Illuzzi, who served in Rodger’s seat for 32 years as a Republican and sometimes Democrat.
“So the niceties of interacting with others, although important to some, is not important to all,” Illuzzi said. “Some segments of the community are rough and tough, and although I think it will be a consideration, I don’t think it will be a paramount consideration.”
Legislators balked at Rodgers’ June remarks, with some labeling the words as sexist or homophobic, which Rodgers has denied. Illuzzi admitted the senator’s choice of phrasing would likely make him “a walking dead man” in places like Chittenden County, but not so in the areas Rodgers serves.
“I bet you there’s not one person in 1,000 in the Kingdom who would think that was a homphobic response,” said Moot, the former lobbyist, adding, “Not one person has mentioned that. … They care about what John has done for them.”
One Democrat familiar with Kingdom politics, however, said the combination of perceived missteps could turn some voters away.
“There had been some concerns about the emails, the tone and the issues that he was spending time and energy on already,” said the person, who asked not to be identified in order to speak candidly about the race. “It sort of felt like the not filing the paperwork on time and not having a great attendance record this summer, for some people, felt like a last straw.”
“I’ve heard more people expressing real frustration and disappointment and not wanting to vote for him as a result than strong supporters,” the person added.
At the same time, Rodgers’ rowdy nature, tendency to butt heads with other Democrats and his work-induced legislative absences might just boost his standing.
Rodgers is a hemp farmer and mason who also runs an inn on a family farm.
“I think, for the most part, that’s one thing a lot of people are looking for, just independent thinkers,” said Wheeler, the Northland Journal head. “And that’s what John’s Senate district has been known for.”
Rodgers has notably fought against his own party on two major issues: gun rights and wind energy. He vocally opposed a 2018 bill that tightened gun regulations, which most of his Democratic colleagues in the Senate supported. The bill’s signing by Gov. Phil Scott ultimately drove him to pursue a write-in campaign for governor that year.
And for years, Rodgers sought to ban new industrial wind developments, arguing that they intrude on the untouched nature of the Kingdom and that local towns have too little input in where projects are placed. Supporters like Moot cite that stance as a plus.
Wheeler acknowledged complaints that if Rodgers doesn’t have time to serve as a legislator, he shouldn’t. But it’s important for the Kingdom, Wheeler said, for working people to be represented at the Statehouse.
“There’s been a decrease of people who work with their hands, or have to make payroll, and it’s become increasingly hard for businesspeople or laborers to serve in the Statehouse,” he said, “people like John Rodgers.”
He added: “What you end up with is a whole Legislature filled with retired people and lawyers.”
Morin, one of the Republican challengers, doesn’t seem to buy the claim that Rodgers is different from other Democrats. In a Facebook post last month, the Holland candidate characterized Rodgers as wanting more regulations and higher taxes. But Morin wrote that he’s told people to vote for Rodgers over Democratic challenger Horton, if they must vote blue, because of Rodgers’ strong pro-gun stance.
For his part, Rodgers said he feels good about his chances.
“I think most of my constituents know that I have always run as a Democrat, but I work in a nonpartisan way,” he said.
Most people in the district vote for whom they know and who has a track record, he said, and that gives him comfort.
He agreed that he might lose some straight-ticket voters because he’s now running as an independent. But he thinks he’s developed enough rapport with constituents over the last eight years in the Senate for his party listing to matter much.
“Quite frankly, I have people tell me all the time that I’m the only Democrat that they vote for,” he said. “They like that I don’t follow the party line. I think that there’s enough people who vote for the person (rather than the party), that that won’t be a problem.”
He thinks the effect of his sometimes controversial remarks will be minimal, too.
“Most of the comments that I have gotten were positive,” he said. Constituents tell him he says what others think. “Of course, we all know we shouldn’t use names,” he said, laughing.
His greatest worry this election is the size of the field.
“I think I’m pretty solid with moderates and independents, but my concern would be more to the conservative and liberal sides of the parties,” he said. Those hardline voters might decide to vote with their party.
“The fact is that you’re dividing the same number of votes five ways instead of four ways.”
In the August primaries, Ingalls earned 3,318 votes, the most votes of any candidate. Starr won 2,835 votes, and Horton won 2,237. Morin, a write-in, garnered 266. As a write-in on the Democratic ticket, Rodgers took home 171.
