[B]URLINGTON — The Burlington City Council could have a substantially different makeup after Tuesday’s Town Meeting Day election.
Or it could be essentially the same, with 11 of 12 current councilors returning to City Hall.
Four of the twelve seats on the council are on Tuesday’s Town Meeting Day ballot, and the Progressive Party sees a real chance to gain significant political power on the council. Three of the four races are considered to be toss-ups, while longtime Democratic incumbent Joan Shannon is the favorite in her South District race.
A couple of wins by Progressive candidates could make it more difficult for Democratic Mayor Miro Weinberger to continue to advance his agenda. Weinberger currently has a solid grasp on the council, as Democrats and other Weinberger supporters outnumber the Progressives.
But if the Progressive challengers pick up one, two or even three of the open seats, the party would have significantly more influence in City Hall, observers say.
Progressive Jack Hanson is running a competitive race with incumbent Democrat Richard Deane in the East District. The North District race between Democrat Franklin Paulino and Kienan Christianson, who was endorsed by the Progressive Party but is running as an independent, is a toss-up.
The Central District is also hard to predict, as longtime Progressive councilor Jane Knodell is running as an independent after losing the nomination at the caucus to Progressive Perri Freeman. Freeman and Democrat Jared Carter are both to the political left of Knodell, who has served on the council for a total of 19 years.
Two Visions
Weinberger laid out the case for the Democrats during his speech at the party’s December caucus. He said that the city is much better off now than it was when he took office in 2012, due to the efforts of his administration and council Democrats.
For example, Weinberger said the Democrats have stabilized the city’s finances, invested in infrastructure, revitalized the city’s waterfront, resolved the Burlington Telecom lawsuit and increased housing development.
Weinberger stressed that re-electing council Democrats was key to continuing the progress the administration has made.
“We face new threats of a softening economy and those that are still attempting to stop our progress with our parks, with our infrastructure, with housing,” he said. “Fulfilling Burlington’s promise as an open, inclusive and vibrant city of opportunity requires constant vigilance.”
Dave Hartnett, a Democratic councilor who is leaving the council, is campaigning hard for Paulino and supports Shannon, Deane and Knodell.
He said while he has been a critic of the Weinberger administration at times, Weinberger and the Democrats on the council have brought the city to a much better spot than they were seven years ago.
“We have to have young professionals living in our downtown, we have to make sure companies like Dealer.com and Burton are welcome here,” he said. “The Democratic Party understands we want young professionals, better paying jobs and smart development.”
Hartnett said the Progressive Party has drifted leftward and has become a “radical” party.
“They’re whole message is about stopping progress,” he said. “They don’t have any solutions, they just say no to everything.”
Freeman said if the Progressives do gain more political power, the party would be able to push some of its own priorities. For example, the Progressives would prioritize more urgent climate action at the local level, participatory budgeting and strengthening the Neighborhood Planning Assemblies.
Progressive Councilor Max Tracy said Progressives on the council are more willing to ask tough questions of the mayor, which are always helpful as the council weighs major projects.
“We’re at a moment now where we have a number of crucial projects coming, and we need as much transparency and accountability as possible,” he said.
The city is currently considering renovation projects for Memorial Auditorium and the Moran Plant. Construction on a City Hall Park renovation is expected to begin this spring, and the city is also moving forward with the Champlain Parkway project which would connect Route 7 and I-89.
Additionally, the new Progressives on the council would place more of a focus on climate issues, Tracy said. They’d also seek alternative means of funding for affordable housing and push for more protections for tenants.
More so than any specific policy changes, Freeman said winning Progressives would work to make the council more accessible to all of the city’s residents.
“I think it would be a change in tone,” she said. “My vision and desire is to bring in more people, not less.”
Who’ll win?
The 12-member council currently consists of five Democrats, one Republican and one independent who are generally supportive of Weinberger and his vision for the city. There are also four Progressives — one who runs with Democratic support — and an independent who leans Progressive.
Eight votes are needed to override a mayoral veto.
Even if Progressives pick up just one or two seats, they would have more influence than they have now, which would make the council harder for Weinberger to navigate.
So who’ll win on Tuesday?
Shannon appears to be safe, as she has been re-elected with wide margins in the reliably-Democratic South End. She is running against Progressive Mohamed Jafar and Independent Paco DeFrancis, the former chair of the Burlington Republican Party.
The East District is going to be close, as Hanson has been campaigning hard against Deane, who was elected in 2017. The seat covers the area surrounding the University of Vermont, and the student vote could prove significant.
The North District covers the New North End, which is historically the city’s most conservative region.
Paulino has the support of Hartnett, who currently holds the seat, and other members of the city’s political establishment, including Republican City Council president Kurt Wright and Weinberger. Ericka Bundy Redic, who had been running as a conservative independent, announced Friday she was dropping out and endorsing Paulino, as well.
But Christianson entered the race earlier than Paulino and has been running a fervent campaign. The race could go either way.
The Central District is even more of a head-scratcher. Knodell has a name recognition advantage and years of experience, but Freeman is an experienced organizer who has been campaigning hard.
Carter is a wildcard in the race. He’s running as a Democrat and could get some support from Democrats, but his positions are much more in line with Progressives. Knodell is the most moderate candidate.
There could also be a runoff if none of the candidates receive 40 percent of the vote.
What does it mean?
A Progressive takeover of the council could hamper development in Burlington, Wright said.
“I think they have a more anti-development attitude,” Wright said. “I think it probably could be a tougher political climate for Mayor Weinberger, potentially, on a couple of things.”
Tracy said a Progressive council would push against a wider trend of neoliberalism in city politics, which prioritizes public-private partnerships.
“I think that there will be certainly a desire to work with the mayor, but there certainly won’t be rubber stamps,” Tracy said. “There will be many more questions asked of the administration.”
Tracy said the fact that the Progressives have fielded a competitive slate of candidates across the city is reflective that the party is alive and well.
“I think that we’re in a position to pick up some seats, I don’t know what races they’ll be,” he said. “We’re really competing at the city-wide level in ways that have pleasantly surprised me.”
Councilor Adam Roof, an independent who frequently votes with the council’s Democrats, said that a councilor’s party affiliation is less important than their willingness to collaborate with others. He highlighted that votes often don’t break down by party.
“Rhetoric doesn’t get you really far around the council table, or in committees,” he said. “At the local level, we should be communicating as community members and neighbors, not agents of different political parties.”
Knodell said that she thinks wins from the Progressives would replace councilors with a lot of experience with newcomers with a big learning curve.
“You’d have … on balance, a more activist approach to city council work,” she said. “Let’s pack Contois [Auditorium] with a bunch of people and hope to put pressure on elected officials to get them to do what we want to.”
In her view, the council has gotten less partisan over time, and wins from the Progressives could make it more polarized. She said the new council would be more antagonistic toward Weinberger.
“Around the national debate around income inequality, tax equity and climate change, these are all really important issues,” Knodell said. “For city council, what’s the job at the local level? It’s not a debating society … if you turn it into a debating society you’re never going to get anything done and you are letting people down.”
Freeman said that win or lose, the young cohort of Progressives in the city would continue to be involved and fight for the issues they believe in.
“I’m overwhelmingly just proud of what not only the various candidates have done, but also their campaigns and their volunteers,” she said. “It’s an incredible inter-generational momentum.”
