Editor’s note: This commentary is by Robby Porter, of East Montpelier, a self-employed woodworker and the owner and partner in small scale hydroelectric projects. He is the author of “Doodlebug, A Road Trip Journal.”
“The millstones of the gods grind late, but they grind fine.”
Sextus Empiricus — Ancient Greek philosopher
[I]n the national tragicomedy called “The 2016 Presidential Election” (with spin-off and follow-up productions still playing on the stage that is Washington, D.C.), all the main characters save one are linked by a common flaw, the hubris of thinking they know the future.
Humans know probabilities. Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight blog knew that Hillary Clinton had a 71 percent chance of winning the presidency. But knowing probabilities is different from knowing what will happen, as we all now know. This is, apparently, an easy lesson to forget.
Everyone knew WMDs existed so we went to war with Iraq. Everyone knew that mortgage-backed securities were safe until they blew up the economy. And everyone knew that Hillary Clinton would be the next president. (By everyone I mean everyone who is important enough to make decisions the rest of us have to live with for generations.)
• Obama knew that Clinton would win so he didn’t go after the Russian interference aggressively enough.
• Trump knew Clinton would win and so he pumped up his stature by running for president.
• Comey wanted to protect the FBI’s reputation so he told us about reopening the Clinton email investigation because he knew she would win anyway.
• Clinton knew she deserved to win so she didn’t bother campaigning in Wisconsin.
• Putin knew Clinton would win, but he wanted to weaken her by strengthening Trump.
• Ivanka knew Clinton would win and she thought she could lever the campaign fame to get better parties with her liberal friends in New York.
It is plausible to think that if just one of these important people had given more weight to the possibility of being wrong about the future, then the election would have turned out more happily for all of them. Instead what happened was a big middle finger pointed at the arrogance of the ruling class.
When you compromise your morality because you’re certain that future events will prove you right and absolve your dishonesty, then you’re taunting the Fates who seem to defend intrusion into their territory with a cruel sense of irony.
Obama — Who’s tarnished now?
To avoid casting a pall on Clinton’s inevitable presidency or look like he was interfering in the election, Obama went too easy on the Russian meddling.
Trump — Just deserts.
Trump pretended to 360 million Americans that he wanted to be president because a near miss with the presidency would polish his brand and legitimize his life of money, porn stars and sycophants. Then he won — days full of briefings, legal investigations, and a dented brand. As he has observed, he had it awfully good before. The only familiar thing between his old life and his new one must be the sycophants
Comey — First prize.
Jim Comey applied a double standard to Russian election meddling and the Clinton email scandal so he could protect the FBI’s reputation, and then Trump won and is now trying to destroy it.
Clinton — Cosmic comeuppance.
She was so sure she was going to win that she lost.
Putin — Too smart by half award.
Remember “The Hunt for Red October” where the Russian submarine commander turns off the safety features on his torpedoes and then his own torpedo blows him up? The United States economy is 14 times the size of the Russian economy. How beneficial will it be for Russia to have a generation of American suspicion, mistrust and ill-will?
Ivanka — Betrayer.
Ivanka, hawking her poise and sincerity. How does it feel now?
“you’d better take your diamond ring, ya better pawn it babe.” — “Like a Rolling Stone” — Bob Dylan
There is one character in this play who doesn’t seem to be counting on the future for absolution but instead is methodically leaving nothing to chance. Maybe there is something about running through gunfire to save a wounded comrade that focused his mind on letting time, destiny and the future take care of themselves, but we don’t know because Mueller doesn’t talk about that experience.
What we do know is that the old adage about the millstones of the gods has been proved true time and again. As for irony, although the special prosecutor is descended from millers, this is not, strictly speaking, irony, but it is poetic.
