Editor’s note: Jon Margolis is VTDigger’s political columnist.
[T]he conventional wisdom around the Statehouse these days is that Republican Gov. Phil Scott is in control and the Democratic leaders of the Legislature are floundering.
Or as commonly expressed in the Capitol corridors, “Phil is eating their lunch.
Like most conventional wisdom, this is not entirely incorrect. Most people in and around politics are not stupid. Were a judgment totally without merit, it would not become the conventional wisdom.
But as is also often true of the conventional wisdom, it might be a bit simplistic. Reality is too complex to describe in a slogan that can fit on a bumper sticker or in a tweet.
And as one Statehouse regular said, if the governor is in fact “eating their lunch,” what is on the plate of Vermont Democrats is “a very small lunch.”
So it seems. If the Democrats had a fuller plate, some of them would not have felt compelled to hold a meeting to plot their “messaging” strategy. Messaging strategies are needed only for those who have nothing to say.
But it’s worth remembering that for all the talk of Scott’s dominance of the session, he hasn’t yet actually accomplished much. He comes across as the serene (if occasionally stern) guy in charge. That’s a good way to come across. It does not guarantee success.
Still, there’s little doubt that he’s in better political shape than his adversaries. His re-election this November is assumed. He has, as of the most recent public poll, a 60 percent approval rating. That’s good for any governor. For a Republican governor in one of the most Democratic states in the country, it is very good indeed.
He seems so invulnerable that no elected Democrat — in fact, no one who has ever tried to be an elected Democrat — plans to oppose him. Considering that the Democratic presidential candidate carried the state by almost a 2-1 majority, the reluctance of any Democratic officeholder to challenge Scott is remarkable. Just consider that in Idaho, where the Republican presidential candidate won by 2-1, a Democratic member of the Legislature has announced she is running for governor this year. Usually someone who holds office challenges the other party’s governor. Not here.
There is no mystery to Scott’s strong position vis a vis the Democrats. To begin with, he’s the governor, and they are not. For at least two reasons, the governor (any governor of any state) finds it easy to overshadow legislators. First, there is only one of him and there are many of them. There being only one of him, it is easy for him to speak with one voice. There are always at least two legislative leaders, not to mention some talkative committee chairpersons. So a cacophony competes with the one voice. The one voice wins.
Besides, most people know who the governor (any governor in any state) is. Walk down almost any Vermont street, stop ten people at random, and ask them who is speaker of the Vermont House of Representatives or president pro tem of the Senate. Fewer than half are likely to know. Most will be able to identify the governor.
In addition, by all evidence and appearances Scott is a decent and honorable gentleman, a pleasant fellow. Voters want their governors to be decent, honorable, and likeable, and some voters don’t demand much more than that. There are voters who pay scant attention to public policy. If their governor doesn’t do anything scandalous or embarrassing, that’s good enough for them.
It isn’t that Speaker Mitzi Johnson or Senate President Tim Ashe are not also decent, honorable, and likable. They are, as are many other lawmakers. But they’re not governor.
With his one voice, Scott has taken other steps that strengthen him politically. He has distanced himself from Donald Trump as far and as firmly as any Republican can. And he has held firm on the position that was central to his campaign and is central to his governorship: not another penny of new taxes, fees, or any other charge to Vermonters.
That leaves the Democrats in a quandary, with their own divisions showing. Democrats know that no one wants to pay more taxes him/her-self. What they argue about is whether voters would approve seeing someone else — in this case the wealthy — pay more.
Nationally, polling leaves little doubt that most people favor higher taxes for top earners. Whether that means most Vermonters would approve a state income tax increase on the richest taxpayers is less certain. Some Democrats think it’s good idea and are convinced voters agree. Others, whatever their own views, are wary about raising the issue. So they say nothing while Scott repeats his “hold-the-line” mantra almost daily.
To which he has now added a new mantra: cut school spending.
How?
Oh, that’s not his department. He won’t make that decision. Instead, he gave the legislators a list of 18 options, each likely to infuriate some faction of the body politic (and some possibly in violation of a court order), and left the dirty work to them.
More good politics. It makes him look like the responsible adult, somewhat above the battle. It does not, in and of itself, reduce the cost of education.
As such, it seems consistent with the governor’s overall record, the highlights of which are looking good and preventing tax increases. It isn’t that he hasn’t accomplished anything. Some school programs, child-care services, and affordable housing availability have been expanded under his leadership.
But his big proposal last year to impose a statewide health care system for public school employees was not adopted. And his big proposal of this year — creation of a 925-bed prison and psychiatric care facility in Franklin County — appears headed for a similar fate.
So far, Scott’s has been a caretaker governorship. It’s possible that this is just what Vermont needs right now, that simply keeping tax rates steady will allow economic growth to solve most other problems.
Besides, when a governor (any governor, of any state) doesn’t try to do much, it’s easier for him to look like he’s the one in control.
