Editor’s note: This commentary is by Garrison Nelson, a political science professor at the University of Vermont and the editor and co-editor of the seven volume Committees in the U.S. Congress, 1789-2010 (Congressional Quarterly/SAGE, 1993-2010) and most recently, “Pathways to the U.S. Supreme Court: From the Arena to the Monastery” (Palgrave Macmillan, 2013).
[M]any Americans are thankful that the World Series has arrived to capture our attention for a week or so from the god-awful train wreck of the 2016 presidential election. The fact that the two teams – the Chicago Cubs and the Cleveland Indians — have a combined total of 174 years without a World Series victory has inevitably led to the lingering impacts of curses that have doomed their respective franchises. As a Boston Red Sox fan who gleefully celebrated the end of their 86-year “curse” in 2004, I can now turn to some Vermont history for evidence of some political patterns that have impacted the state’s politics, one of which appears to be a curse.
The Curse of the Lieutenant Governorship: In 1958 Lt. Gov. Bob Stafford was elected governor of Vermont. It was not considered remarkable at the time because six of Stafford’s seven immediate gubernatorial predecessors, including the legendary George D. Aiken, had moved into the governorship of Vermont from the office of lieutenant governor. That was 58 years ago. Among the 14 lieutenant governors who followed Stafford, only Howard Dean moved directly into the governorship. But that was when Gov. Dick Snelling died in 1991 and not by election. Twelve of the others fell by the electoral wayside. Phil Scott’s fate will be decided Nov. 8.
Because Vermont’s lieutenant governors are elected separately from its governors, we often have the two posts occupied by members of different political parties. Needless to say, these party differences will lead to lieutenant governors of one party challenging incumbent governors of the other party. This has resulted in defeats for incumbent Republican Lt. Govs. Ralph Foote in 1964 and Peter Smith in 1986 and Democrat Lt. Gov. Madeleine M. Kunin in 1982. Kunin gained the governorship in 1984 as a former lieutenant governor. Also included should be Lt. Gov. Tom Hayes who failed in his 1970 primary bid to unseat fellow Republican Gov. Deane Davis. Republican Lt. Gov. Barbara Snelling might have broken this streak when a cerebral hemorrhage aborted her 1996 challenge to Democrat Howard Dean.
Open seat governorships were lost by lieutenant governors in general elections by Democrats John Daley in 1968 and Doug Racine in 2002, and Republican Brian Dubie in 2010, while Republican Bob Babcock in 1960 and Democrat Brian Burns in 1976 never got past the primaries. Republican John S. Burgess lost the open U.S. House primary in 1974 while fellow Republican Lt. Gov. T. Garry Buckley failed to secure his own renomination in 1978, losing to Peter Smith.
While this is not a happy set of precedents for Lt. Gov. Phil Scott, the Red Sox and the Indians have demonstrated that negative streaks can be broken. There is another Vermont streak that is more promising for Scott and that is the party alternation one.
Party Alternation: Although Vermont is now a two-party state when it comes to gubernatorial contests that was not always the case. Democrat John S. Robinson, who governed Vermont from 1853-54 broke a string of victories by eight Whig governors who had held the office from 1835 to 1853. When the Whigs collapsed and were replaced by the Republicans in 1854, Vermont’s governorship became the property of the GOP for the next 108 years with 50 Republican governors holding the reins in Montpelier. All that differentiated them was their Green Mountain locations as the Republicans maintained party harmony by alternating candidacies between the eastern and westerns slopes of the mountains.
While the “mountain rule” has passed into history, the latest alternation pattern in Vermont to emerge is a consequence of the two major parties becoming more competitive for the governorship. For most of the past half century, when the governor’s office comes open, the party victories alternate. It occurred in 1968 when three-term Democrat Phil Hoff was replaced by Republican Deane Davis; in 1972 when Davis was succeeded by Democrat Tom Salmon; and again in 1976 when Republican Dick Snelling followed Salmon. Democrat Madeleine Kunin, who had failed to defeat Snelling as lieutenant governor in 1982, succeeded him in 1984 but when she left the office in 1990, he regained the office. Snelling’s 1991 death led to the succession of Democratic Lt Gov. Howard Dean, who left the post to explore his presidential aspirations. Dean’s departure led to the 2002 victory of Republican Jim Douglas. It was Douglas’ 2010 retirement that opened the seat for Democrat Peter Shumlin. With Shumlin stepping aside, it would appear that this year’s Republican nominee Phil Scott should be the frontrunner for the post.
If Scott wins, he will validate the eight-election party alternation thesis and end the 58-year curse of the lieutenant governorship. If he loses, the party alternation thesis crashes and the curse of the lieutenant governorship will claim its 13th victim.
The Scott candidacy will test both of these trends. If he wins, he will validate the eight-election party alternation thesis and end the 58-year curse of the lieutenant governorship. If he loses to former Transportation Secretary Susan Minter, the party alternation thesis crashes and the curse of the lieutenant governorship will claim its 13th victim.
Presidential Coattails: Among the hoary tales trotted out to explain down-ballot elections is the legend of presidential coattails. Simply put, popular presidential candidates can carry fellow party members into lesser offices on their coattails. This thesis makes sense in states with party column (or Indiana) ballot forms where a voter needs only to check one box and see the entire slate of their preferred party’s candidates receive votes. This ballot form encourages straight-ticket voting. The other ballot form is the Massachusetts or office-bloc ballot. It takes longer because voters must vote separately for each office. The office bloc ballot obliges voters to know something about the contenders if only their party labels. Its major consequence is to encourage split-ticket voting.
Vermont is an office-bloc state where voters must vote separately for each office. With Republicans winning all of the governorships from 1854 to 1960 and all 27 presidential contests from 1856 to 1960, there was never a party differential between presidents and governors. It even held true in 1964 when both Democrats President Lyndon Johnson and Gov. Phil Hoff were victorious in Vermont.
The pattern broke first in 1972 when Democrat Tom Salmon with 55.3 percent of the votes survived Republican Richard Nixon’s 49 state landslide and 62.7 percent of Vermont’s votes by running 18.8 points ahead of Democratic nominee George McGovern. It was the first of five split ticket results in the past 11 elections. Madeleine Kunin was the next beneficiary of ticket splitting when she ran 9.2 points ahead of Walter Mondale in 1984 (50.0 to 40.8) and 5.8 points ahead of her good friend Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis in 1988 (55.3 percent to 47.5 percent). While Howard Dean had the highest differential when he finished 28.6 points ahead of fellow successful Democrat Bill Clinton in 1992 (74.7 percent to 46.1 percent), it was his successor Jim Douglas who twice survived the Republican presidential drags of George W. Bush by 19.9 points in 2004 (58.7 percent to 38.8 percent) and John McCain by 23 points in 2008 (53.4 percent to 30.4 percent).
This year’s election has seen a major outpouring of national Democratic support for Susan Minter with a radio ad from President Barack Obama and an in-state endorsement from Vice President Joe Biden. While Vermont has been listed as solidly Democratic in 2016, it is well to remember that Hillary Clinton lost badly to Obama in the 2008 Democratic primary, 59.3 percent for him and 38.6 percent for her. She fared even worse in 2016’s primary losing to Vermont’s own Bernie Sanders earlier this year 85.7 percent to 13.6 percent. Clinton should win easily but will her coattails be long enough to carry Minter into office?
Ironically, Minter may benefit from another more valuable set of coattails. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders who ran against Democratic candidates 10 times – winning four as mayor and losing six as a statewide candidate has now run (and won) 10 consecutive elections as an independent but de facto Democratic candidate, eight for the U.S. House and two for the U.S. Senate. Bernie has now emerged as the state’s leading Democratic politician and is campaigning for Sue Minter to win the governorship, an office that he lost on three previous occasions.
Phil Scott had a marginal one point lead in one public poll (Castleton/VPR) and a seven point lead in the other (WCAX-TV). Assuming that Vermont’s polls are not “rigged,” he should run sufficiently ahead of Donald Trump to win the 2016 election and end the 58-year lieutenant governor curse. Otherwise, he will join the Chicago Cubs in yet another “wait till next year” lament.
