Voters will go to the polls Tuesday to select the candidates to run in the November elections, including for the offices of governor and lieutenant governor. Both positions are open because the current office holder is either not running for re-election or is seeking higher office.
Two Republicans are running for governor: Lt. Gov. Phil Scott and former Wall Street businessman Bruce Lisman. On the Democratic Party side, five candidates are trying to get on the ballot for November: former Transportation Secretary Sue Minter, former Google executive Matt Dunne, former ambassador Peter Galbraith, and lesser-known candidates H. Brooke Paige and Cris Ericson.
Scott and Lisman have focused largely on economic issues. Scott says Vermont has an “affordability crisis” of high property taxes and government costs. He promises to slow the rate of growth in the state budget. Scott also believes Vermont’s population needs to expand from 625,000 to more than 700,000 to help spread the cost of services. In the last few weeks of the campaign, including at a TV debate last week, Scott has criticized Lisman for negative campaigning.
Lisman has highlighted his management skills and, like Scott, has emphasized controlling the costs of state government. He has sought to link Scott to policies promoted by Gov. Peter Shumlin, a Democrat who is not seeking re-election after three terms. Lisman has also raised ethical questions about Scott, particularly about his ownership of a construction company that has done business with the state. Scott has said he will put his ownership interest in a “blind trust” if he’s elected and that Lisman’s charges are unfair attacks.
On the Democratic side, Minter and Dunne have been considered the front-runners, with Galbraith lagging, according to political analyst Eric Davis.
The Democrats’ race was viewed by some media outlets as a snoozer with few policy differences emerging. That changed, however, in the past week when Dunne faced criticism after strengthening his position on wind project siting, saying he would use the power of the governor’s office to stop projects opposed by residents in the hosting town. Dunne also faced criticism for putting money into his campaign after he said he would not and had criticized Galbraith for doing so.
Davis, a retired Middlebury College political science professor, said he is giving Minter a slight edge after Dunne had a difficult week and because he said Minter has more grass-roots support as measured by in-state contributions of $200 or less. She also has appeal, Davis said, because she would be the first woman in the governor’s office in 26 years and has avoided negative campaigning. However, Davis wondered if Dunne secured enough support in early voting to counteract his problems late in the campaign.
“Dunne hurt himself in the final 10 days with his position on wind and trying to go negative” by attempting to link Minter to the alleged “Ponzi-like” scheme in the Northeast Kingdom involving EB-5 investor money.
The Democrats, like the Republicans, have highlighted economic issues, including raising the minimum wage. Minter has pushed for community revitalization programs and made gun control a major issue. Galbraith was the first to push for a higher minimum wage and wants to end state financial incentives for companies like GlobalFoundries. Dunne has emphasized his tech skills and the need to expand broadband services statewide.
Turnout, Davis said, will be key. He predicts roughly 20 percent of the approximately 450,000 registered voters will go to the polls, split roughly 60 percent to 70 percent for Democrats and 30 percent to 40 percent for Republicans. This is the first year the primary will be held this early. In the last election cycle it was the last week of August, and before that the primary was in early September.
Davis said he expects a Scott victory despite the low turnout and the large amount Lisman poured into his campaign — at last count more than $1.6 million of his own money, for television and other media buys.
The spending in the race has been unprecedented. In 2010, the last time there was an open governor’s seat, Shumlin spent $500,000 to win the primary against four opponents. This year, Minter and Dunne will both come close to or exceed $1 million in spending for the primary alone; Lisman could top $2 million.
“This portends a very high spending general election campaign. The total could be more than $4 million for the general election when adding together candidate, party and outside group spending,” Davis said.
Lisman, Davis said, is on track to beat the record set by U.S. Senate candidate Rich Tarrant for spending the most per vote. In 2006, Tarrant spent $86 per vote losing to Bernie Sanders. Lisman, according to Davis, could top $100 per vote on the primary alone.
In the lieutenant governor’s race, Davis believes it is too close to call between House Speaker Shap Smith and Sen. David Zuckerman to claim the Democratic nomination, with Rep. Kesha Ram, who has significantly lower name recognition according to a Vermont Public Radio poll, in third.
Smith, who ran for governor until his wife was diagnosed with cancer and in May entered the lieutenant governor’s race after his wife’s treatments ended, was viewed more favorably than Zuckerman in the VPR poll, but they were close in name recognition. Can Smith, the less liberal of the two, carry the middle, or will Zuckerman, a progressive, be able to draw out the left? What effect, Davis asked, will Sanders’ endorsement of Zuckerman have?
The winner of the Democratic nomination will face off against Republican Randy Brock, a former state auditor and senator, who faces no primary opponent.
There are also several state Senate races being closely watched. In Chittenden County, a host of Democrats are vying for the nominations to seek the district’s six seats. Two of the seats are wide open after Zuckerman decided to seek the lieutenant governor’s job and Sen. Diane Snelling, a Republican, resigned to take over the state Environmental Board and her replacement, Helen Riehle, said she would not run for the post in November.
In Franklin County, there is a three-way race on the Republican side for two slots on the November ballot, with suspended Sen. Norm McAllister seeking re-election along with Sen. Dustin Degree, and Rep. Carolyn Branagan making a bid to move up.
