A recent VTDigger/Castleton Polling Institute survey shows lukewarm support for single-payer among Vermont’s registered voters. (See poll results below.)
In answer to the question, “Do you support or oppose moving Vermont to a single-payer health care system?” respondents were pretty much split.
Forty percent expressed support, while 39 percent were opposed. The percentages are weighted to extrapolate the sample to represent all registered voters in the state. The margin of error is plus or minus 4 percent.
Twenty-one percent were unsure or had no opinion, suggesting an information gap in Vermonters’ understanding of what single-payer health care would entail.
A recent poll by the Vermont NEA found that universal health care polled better than single payer, suggesting it has become a loaded term in the state.
The poll reveals that opinions on single payer fall along partisan lines, with 75 percent of Republicans opposed, outpacing the 64 percent of Democrats who support it.
Independents appeared to favor single payer, with 41 percent supportive and 35 percent opposed, however Castleton notes that the 4 percent margin of error is higher for subsamples of respondents.
Support for single payer showed a strong correlation with a respondent’s level of education, jumping from 24 percent among those with a high school diploma or less to 60 percent among people with graduate degrees.
The ratio of support to opposition was similar, and well within the margin of error, for men and women, however men were more likely to express an opinion.
Optimism on Vermont Health Connect
When asked, “Despite the problems with the launch of the Vermont Health Connect website, do you think the state’s health care exchange ultimately will provide greater access to insurance or not?” The weighted response showed that 51 percent believe it will.
Unlike single payer, where Republican opposition polled stronger than Democratic support, Democrats’ belief that Vermont Health Connect, and by proxy the Affordable Care Act, will provide greater access to health insurance showed more strength than Republicans’ belief it would not.
Seventy-seven percent of Democrats were optimistic, while only 54 percent of Republicans showed pessimism.
Again, independents fell somewhere in between with 51 percent saying they believe it will increase access and 34 saying it would not, with 16 percent unsure or having no opinion.
The poll showed a strong correlation between age and education and one’s belief that Vermont Health Connect will increase coverage.
Optimism about the exchange’s potential to increase coverage jumped from 24 percent for those with a high school diploma or less to 68 percent among those with a graduate degree.
Fifty-seven percent of people age 18-44 said they believed the exchange would expand coverage, compared to just 45 percent of those 65 or older.
People 65 and older are eligible for Medicare and would have no reason to purchase insurance through the exchange.
The correlation between income and optimism is weaker, with higher income people slightly more inclined to believe it would expand coverage.
Vermonters report high levels of health coverage
When asked, “Are you, yourself, now covered by any form of health insurance or health plan or do you not have health insurance at this time?” only 5 percent of the respondents (from a pool of registered voters) said they were not.
That is roughly the same as the most recent figures from the state, collected in 2012 showed that 6.8 percent, or 42,760 people, in the state were without health insurance.
National polling shows the percentage of uninsured in the U.S. for 2012 was 17.5 and has dropped to 15.9 in the first quarter of 2014.
State officials have been cautious about speculating whether the number of uninsured has dropped following the implementation of the Affordable Care Act in Vermont.
The next Household Insurance Survey, which provides the most accurate information on the uninsured in the state, will be conducted in the fall, according to the Department of Financial Regulation.
The poll shows a correlation between education and coverage with people who have a high school diploma or less at 11 percent uninsured compared to zero for those with a graduate degree.
There is also a correlation with income, however those with lowest income bracket are more likely to be covered than those in the middle.
Though the differences are all well within the margin of error, that could be because people in a household making $20,000 or less are likely to qualify for Medicaid.
Some people in households with income between $20,000 and $40,000 may not be aware that they could also qualify for Medicaid.
People can still log on to the Vermont Health Connect website and check their Medicaid eligibility, even though the window to enroll in private insurance is closed.
