Editor’s note: This op-ed is by award-winning journalist Telly Halkias. It first appeared in the Bennington Banner.
An old saying about poker can easily apply to election politics: “If you lose your cool, you’ll lose all your chips.”
Last week the national media dealt us too many trump cards to stay away from the table: Speculation on whether President Barack Obama should enlist Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as his vice presidential running mate this fall.
Four years ago, pundits hailed a so-called “dream ticket,” one that would land the first black president and female vice president in office in a barrier-busting barrage.
Much has changed since then. The president, who remains personally likable, nonetheless has lost the luster heralded by his “hope and change” mantra. Many have complained of his passivity when dealing with Republicans and with power brokers from his own party. But at voting time, these constituents aren’t going anywhere. Rather, Obama’s challenge is the loss of confidence from independents, as well as rejection from moderate Republicans who gave him a chance at the ballot box in 2008.
Purportedly, this is where Clinton can make a difference, as her favorability ratings nationally are 20 points higher than the president’s. She can win back some voters, mostly the key demographic of independent females who currently show a vast decrease in numbers to re-elect Obama.
That’s the easy part. Here’s the hard part: Much hasn’t changed since 2008. That summer, as the election approached, I wrote in an op-ed:
Clinton is in an excellent position, because she’s the one candidate who can’t lose. Barring an 11th hour surprise that would give her the nomination, she has run an historic campaign as the first female to challenge for a major party presidential bid.
In hindsight, Clinton took a chance by running her campaign as a general election bid rather than a celebration of the party base. To be fair, though, no one could have predicted Obama’s surge. Some suggest Clinton join Obama on a “dream ticket.” But Obama’s numbers against McCain are not as strong as Clinton’s, and risking defeat might make her the John Edwards of 2012.
Politics are about measuring risk, and then acting on it. In the fall of 2008, Obama’s standing against Sen. John McCain turned in the blink of a market meltdown. Thereafter, he didn’t need a running-mate boost.
This year, though, the president can use Clinton, given her four years in the Cabinet’s most powerful position — a scenario created by her appointment to the post in one of Obama’s savviest moves.
Yet, with Gov. Mitt Romney’s emerging invincibility for the GOP nomination, and his consistent polling as able to beat the president, the associated jeopardy is evident: Such a move could be exploited as one of desperation.
Furthermore, since veeps have vague job descriptions, could the president stomach four years as a lame-duck with a rock star VP spending the entire term planning her own coronation?
The other “legacy” question facing Obama is the anticipated presence of President Bill Clinton dominating the public eye, almost as a shadow executive. Having also lost a measure of confidence from some Democrats, how much weaker a public image can the president afford if all of the above comes to pass?
Finally, there’s Hillary Clinton’s associated risk. As in the 2008 “dream ticket” scenario, she stands to lose everything.
If Obama wins without her — which, as an incumbent, history is on his side to do — she is perfectly situated to take on all challengers in 2016 while building more credentials at State. Importantly, Clinton would do this while staying above politics. If he loses without her, she can then marshal her considerable forces and spend four years campaigning and fundraising to topple any Republican.
But if the president brings her on board and Romney wins, then Clinton is finished. In 2008, she could survive a primary loss; today, she can’t afford a general election defeat, even as No. 2. Staying off the ticket remains a win-win for her. Joining forces with Obama is the only move with substantial risk.
Setting ideology aside, what’s left is a helluva poker game, with all the chips at stake. This summer, it’ll be time to deal. We’ll see if anyone loses their cool.
