Editor’s note: This op-ed is by Kevin Ellis, a partner in the Montpelier lobbying firm Kimbell Sherman Ellis.
With the elections one week away, KSE partners handicap the Governors’ race.
In a post shortly after the primary and before the Democratic nominee for governor had been decided, we promised readers we’d use this blog to predict the outcome of the election for governor. Here we offer our prognostication. Like the polls the KSE partners are divided. Thus we offer two views: Kevin Ellis, Bob Sherman, and Chuck Storrow believe Peter Shumlin will win and Scott Mackey and Jackie Hughes make the case for a Brian Dubie victory.
To recap: Bob Sherman wrote a lengthy posting last spring suggesting that Republican Brian Dubie would win in this bluest of blue states. He opined that the five-way Democratic primary was good for democracy and bad for Democrats because it meant that Dubie would be unopposed all summer. In September, after the primary but before the recount had been completed, Kevin and Bob wrote that the race had tightened, primarily because the election had been civil and the heavily-contested race had attracted new primary voters to the polls.
With one week to go, we offer these observations and make these predictions. We flipped a coin and Scott and Jackie get to go second!
Kevin Ellis, Bob Sherman, and Chuck Storrow
Peter Shumlin will win by four percent. This bucks the national trend. The nation is swinging hard to the right and the pundits say the GOP will win the U.S. House, make gains in the U.S. Senate, sweep governor’s races in the Midwest and pick up seats in every legislature in America. They argue Republicans have the momentum and the energy everywhere in this mid term election. Vermont is the exception.
First, all politics are local. Vermont is different. We have no Tea Party. Our partner Scott has argued in the past we do not have any real conservatives here. He notes the Vermont GOP is a moderate party by national standards. We agree. Brian Dubie, however is not a moderate by Vermont standards. He is socially conservative (pro-life) and would support using state resources to finance religious schools. He has supported keeping Vermont Yankee open. These issues are far to the right of most Vermonters who vote. These issues have dogged him through the campaign this fall and will hurt him next Tuesday with the independent voters who will decide this race.
Second, Shumlin and Dubie care about the same things: balanced budgets, jobs, education, health care, the environment and how much all the above costs. They offer different policy solutions. Both are equally vague. Dubie portrays Shumlin as a tax and spend career politician who will pick your pocket to solve problems. Shumlin chides Dubie for saying he will balance the budget and refusing to say what programs he would cut. Neither candidate has provided a level of detail that policy wonks, let alone voters, can objectively analyze. Thus neither will win the election on policy alone.
Third, both have “gone negative.” This means their debate demeanor and their paid advertising has all been about how bad the other guy is. The hand wringers are appalled: they say it’s dirty politics and that Vermont politics should be “clean!” We agree the campaign rhetoric has been rough. But it has not been dirty. Dubie has argued Shumlin is slick. Dubie’s corrections/pornographer advertising was especially harsh. Shumlin has argued Dubie is slow, uninformed and dishonest. His Pinocchio advertising was equally tough. We think both camps scored with their negative ads. Neither has won the day either so we call this a draw.
Fourth, to win Shumlin needs to carry Addison, Chittenden, Washington Counties and all of Vermont south of Route 4. Dubie needs a large turnout everywhere else and a big win in Rutland and Franklin counties. Shumlin has already won one close election this year. He will get out the vote again.
Finally, progressives will vote for Shumlin. In an election that is close, this is an important factor. The left will back Shumlin and US Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-VT, is promoting Shumlin heavily this week. It will make a difference.
One more thing – Shumlin has an irrepressible personality that is beginning to show through. The campaign appears to have taken a toll on Dubie’s own sunny personality. In an interview with Bob Kinzel on VPR this week, Dubie was prickly in the face of tough questions about education taxes and the negative ads. Nothing gets Shumlin down. He reminds us of Bill Clinton in New Hampshire in 1992 as the Comeback Kid.
Scott Mackey and Jackie Hughes
We agree with our partners that any pro-life Republican faces an uphill battle winning statewide office in liberal Vermont. Brian Dubie also has to overcome a mainstream Vermont media that is clearly rooting for Peter Shumlin and doing what it can to help him win, both with endorsements and with selection and placement of stories in the weeks before the election. For example, the media hounds Dubie to get specific on how he will close a $100 million budget gap while accepting “we’ll get a waiver” as an answer for how Shumlin will pay for a new multi-billion dollar, taxpayer-funded “single payer” health care program.
However, despite these formidable obstacles, we think Dubie still wins by about 2 points. Here’s why:
* Enthusiasm gap. Democrats were very fired up in 2008 when Obama won big, both nationally and in Vermont. This time, it’s the Republicans that are fired up. This enthusiasm gap will help Dubie, even in Vermont where the effect will not be nearly as large as in other states where Republicans are going to win big.
* Independents. Vermont independents went big for Obama in 2008 because they were mad at George Bush over many issues. However, independents that vote on fiscal and pocketbook issues are now upset with Obama and the democrats. These independents are also more likely to be concerned about the possibility of one-party domination in Montpelier and what it may mean for taxes and spending. Look for Dubie to do well with independents.
* Older voters. Older voters are nervous about their future. Shumlin’s proposals to add state-funded preschool, allow schools to spend more even as enrollment declines, and create a single payer health system are popular with younger families, but not so much with older Vermonters. These folks do not have kids in school and are already covered by Medicare. Also, they are not enthusiastic about putting more prisoners – even non-violent prisoners – on the streets. Look for Dubie to do fairly well with older voters, who tend to vote in disproportionately higher numbers.
* Phil Scott. It seems like every small contractor and other home-based small business person with ties to the trades has a Scott sign. Phil Scott will win big, and he will bring these “sometimes voters” to the polls this year. They will support Dubie.
For these reasons, we believe that Brian Dubie will survive Peter Shumlin’s momentum surge and will be elected the next governor of Vermont.
