Editor’s note: This article was updated at 7:40 p.m. and again at 4:54 a.m.
[V]ermont Gov. Peter Shumlin announced Monday that he will not seek a fourth term.
Flanked by his girlfriend and current and former members of his cabinet, Shumlin told reporters that after much thought and consideration he wanted to return to private life.
“I decided to make this decision now because I want these next 18 months in office to be focused entirely on continuing the work we started together,” Shumlin said.
The governor made the announcement 18 months before his term expires. Shumlin would not say what prompted the decision and instead emphasized repeatedly that it was his plan all along to serve no more than three terms.
“I have always thought that the right time for a governor to serve is six years,” Shumlin said. “I thought, as often happens in life, that as my third term evolved, my opinion might change. It never did.”
Shumlin told reporters that he had not “raised a penny” since his re-election “because I wasn’t going to ask people for money when I thought I probably was right about the six-year term.”
But the governor’s insistence that he planned to stay in office for three terms contradicts previous statements about his electoral intentions. At a news conference in March when his chief of staff Elizabeth Miller announced her departure, Shumlin told reporters he intended “to serve as governor as long as Vermonters will have me and as long as there is more work to do.”
Shumlin dismissed speculation that his razor thin win over a political newcomer in November was the precipitating factor, and he said he had not conducted any polls to measure his popularity with voters.
His narrow victory over Republican Scott Milne, he said, had “absolutely” nothing to do with his decision. Nor is he looking to further his political career in Washington. Shumlin said it was a personal decision. He had consulted with Katie Hunt, his girlfriend, and his two daughters “and they all agree with me.”
“I truly ran for governor because I wanted to make changes in the state that has given me so much and then go back to private life and frankly to be the business person that I love to be,” Shumlin said. “So I have absolutely no plans except to do the following: Go back to Putney and go back to work to get my brother off my back because that’s something he’s been trying to get me to do for a long time now and prosper in the great state of Vermont.”
In a prepared, nine-minute speech, the governor recited his accomplishments, measuring his achievements against the way he found the state when he first took office in 2011. Shumlin touted his record on job creation, the health of the economy, renewable energy expansion, support for low-income Vermonters and efforts to expand treatment for opiate addicts.
Members of Shumlin’s cabinet were unaware of the governor’s decision until just before the announcement. Secretary of Administration Justin Johnson said he didn’t know about the governor’s decision until a little after noon (“As you can see I’m not even wearing a jacket,” he said). The news conference where Shumlin made his announcement was held at 1 p.m.
Political watchers have speculated that Shumlin might sidestep a 2016 race because of his poor showing in the November election, but most were surprised by the timing of the governor’s announcement. Gov. Howard Dean, a Democrat, and Gov. Jim Douglas, a Republican, said they would not run again in September and August, respectively.
Eric Davis, a retired Middlebury College political science professor, said the governor’s loss of popular support in November put Shumlin in the “most vulnerable position of any governor seeking re-election since Howard Dean in 2000.”
“What surprised me about it was not the substance of his decision, but the timing of it,” Davis said. He anticipated that Shumlin would make the announcement in the late summer or fall, as his predecessors had done.
The governor won re-election by a scant 2,434 votes over Milne, a political unknown in November. Milne did not concede the race and insisted that the Legislature decide the fate of the election as neither candidate garnered more than 50 percent of the popular vote.
Just six weeks after his humiliating comeuppance at the polls, Shumlin announced in late December that he would not proceed with a single payer health care program, his signature public policy initiative. He described the decision at the time as the “biggest disappointment” of his career in public service.
On Monday the governor said publicly financed health care was the “exception” to the “ambitious goals” he set for himself in that it was left unaccomplished. That decision alienated some of the governor’s more ardent supporters who believed he did not do enough to pursue a single payer plan.
“What I learned the hard way was that, I always said you can’t support any health care system in Vermont or America if we keep spending the way we are,” Shumlin said. Bringing costs under control is the only way that publicly financing health care is viable, he added.
The governor won the secret legislative election against Milne at the beginning of the legislative session in January, 110-69, but his popularity has continued to flag. A VTDigger/Castleton Polling Institute survey in February found that for the first time more respondents disapproved of Shumlin’s job performance than approved.
“I think Shumlin decided the risk of being the first governor to lose a re-election race was reasonably high and probably he decided to stand down after three terms rather than going for a fourth and possibly losing,” Davis said.
Davis says the governor’s lame duck status over the next 18 months will have policy implications. Local communities may push back on the recently passed education reform legislation being implemented by the Agency of Education now that it’s clear that a new governor will be in power soon.
“When Rebecca Holcombe talks to school districts about consolidation do people think they can wait her out?” Davis said. “We will have someone new as secretary of education when we get a new governor, and how does that all play out?”
Renewable energy siting is another issue that could be affected by Shumlin’s decision to bow out, Davis says. The governor has had close ties to Vermont Gas, which is building a pipeline in Addison County, and Green Mountain Power, the largest electric utility in the state. GMP has been a proponent of renewable power.
“If there is a new governor in 18 months, that relationship might not be as close as it might have been and the new governor could be more subject to the concerns of local activists another issue where there could be some big changes,” Davis says.
Johnson, the secretary of the administration, said he’s not troubled by Shumlin’s announcement. Johnson was appointed deputy commissioner of the Agency of Natural Resources in June of 2009 just two months before Gov. Jim Douglas announced he wouldn’t seek re-election. Most people working for the Shumlin administration didn’t sign up for the job security, he said.
As for whether Shumlin’s lame duck status will make it more difficult to pass a budget in January, Johnson said people have said the governor was already in a weakened position following his tight election, and he said he doesn’t think the announcement will have any greater impact.
“For right now, you know, I still have all the statutory authority I have to run the government, and we’ll continue to do that,” Johnson said.
At least nine candidates are eyeing the governor’s seat.
Reaction
Shumlin’s plans to step down at the end of his term came as a surprise to some Democratic leaders.
“It was quite a shock,” said President Pro Tem John Campbell, D-Windsor, who heard the news directly from Shumlin earlier on Monday.
Campbell acknowledged that the governor’s health care agenda had faced hard times, culminating in the abandonment of his single payer health care ambitions late last year. But, Campbell said, he had expected the governor to make a comeback in a fourth term in the Pavilion.
“It was one of those things where he was really down because of the single payer not going through and I thought that he was going to try to do something, try to see if there was some other way that we could attack the cost of health care,” Campbell said.
Still, the Senate Democrat said that he thinks that Shumlin’s legacy will be one of “leadership,” pointing to the recovery from Irene.
Campbell said that he does not see any “direct heir apparent” for the job, and that he considers it too early for anybody to be entering the race. In the meantime, he does not anticipate that Shumlin’s announcement will have a big impact on the Democratic agenda in the Senate in the second half of the biennium.
“There’s not going to be a big change in game plan,” Campbell said. “The governor is going to be there, we’re going to be working with him.”
Shumlin’s announcement “surprised” House Majority Leader Sarah Copeland Hanzas, D-Bradford, she said Monday, adding, “I very much respect the governor for being decisive about his plans.”
Copeland Hanzas expects to continue to work with the governor on party initiatives when the Legislature returns next year, including universal sick leave benefits and continuing to work on education reform.
Sen. Anthony Pollina, D/P/W-Washington, however, was not surprised by Shumlin’s news.
“He saw the writing on the wall that there was not enough support for him in the next election,” Pollina said.
Pollina criticized the governor for failing to realize big promises he made with health care. Although the administration has taken up issues like clean water and broadband, Pollina said there has not been “enough focus on what’s happening to real Vermonters.”
The Vermont Democratic Party lauded Shumlin’s record in office in a statement Monday, pointing to his work on opiate addiction, business growth and more.
“It is without question that our party and our state are both better off because of Governor Shumlin’s leadership,” party chair Dottie Deans said in a statement.
Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., credited Shumlin for his “Vermont Strong” leadership after Tropical Storm Irene in 2011.
“Marcelle and I are deeply grateful for Governor Shumlin’s leadership and public service. We thank him for all he has done to serve our state and wish him all the best in his future endeavors,” Leahy said in a statement.
Rep. Peter Welch, seen by some as a possible candidate for governor, also praised Shumlin’s leadership during Irene.
“Peter has been a tireless advocate for the state he loves and for the success of all Vermonters,” Welch said in a statement. “I have tremendous respect for him, what he has accomplished, and what he no doubt will continue to accomplish as our Governor for the next 18 months.”
VTDigger’s Morgan True, Elizabeth Hewitt, Erin Mansfield and Tom Brown contributed to this report.