Editor’s note: “Facing climate change” is series about the impact of global warming on Vermont’s people and environment.
The icons and traditions that define our state’s character — long winters, brilliant autumns, and working landscapes — are also the things a warming Vermont is likely to change beyond recognition.
There is tremendous uncertainty about what a hotter future will look like. It depends on how soon and how much humans curb greenhouse gas emissions, how we choose to prepare for these changes, and in what complex ways a multitude of moving meteorological and ecological parts interact. Under a lower-emissions scenario, many of these losses wouldn’t happen, or would be less dramatic. But humans are currently on a high-emissions track and that spells doom for many of Vermont’s character-defining traditions. To keep emissions below the low-emissions threshold, humans would need to cut greenhouse gas pollution by 80 percent below what it was in the year 2000.
Scientists and state planners predict a number of changes that will utterly alter Vermont’s nature. The winter tradition of predicting ice-out is on its way out. Likewise, winter sports like snowmobiling and ice-fishing will suffer, though ski resorts are hedging their bets with all-season activities. Autumn classics, like leaf-peeping, and spring traditions like maple syrup, will eventually move north out of Vermont, along with our maple trees. Dairy farms will struggle to make ends meet because cows produce less milk in warmer weather. Apple trees will bud early only to get nipped by frost. Shorter, warmer winters means less of cool-season crops like kale. More volatile weather means trouble for Christmas tree farms. The shady hemlock forests that shelter cool streams and dank, needle-padded forest floors will die off as invasive insects suck their life-giving sap. With the loss of hemlocks will go the decline of brook trout due to fewer shady trees coupled with already warming streams. Some bird species will no longer be able to make a living in Vermont, while others may find an increased abundance of juicy insects to enjoy.
Depressed yet? Don’t despair–in June, VTDigger will publish a slideshow of the ways Vermonters are contributing to solutions.
