Since Don Turner, R-Milton, became the House Minority Leader in 2010, his party goal has been to control 60 seats in the House after this election.
But Vermont’s Grand Old Party might end up fighting for the status quo on Election Day this year, as nine of the 48 current Republican representatives are either retiring or running for Senate.
“These are very competitive races, and it will be disappointing to the candidates, to me and to our entire caucus if we don’t retain those seats,” said Turner. “We need to get to 60 seats in my mind to really put the pressure on and make for more viable debate and discussion about these bills.”
This year, a number of close contests for Vermont’s 150 House seats are spread generously through the state, with nail-biters in counties like Rutland, Chittenden, Windsor, Franklin, Lamoille, Orange and Addison. While most races will go to the Democrats or Republicans, the Progressives are hoping to expand their five seats, and a new independent representative down south will get elected.
If the Republicans can retain the nine seats their party members are vacating, and add an additional three, then they would be out of the super minority. The left-of-center Legislature, which controls more than two-thirds of the House and Senate across party lines, hasn’t used the super majority power to override a governor veto since Democrat Gov. Peter Shumlin took office in 2010.
Meanwhile, House Speaker Shap Smith, D-Morrsville, and Nick Charyk, who runs the Democrats’ House campaign, are hoping to hold or add to the party’s 94 seats in the House. The odds are in their favor.
The 74 Republicans, which includes 14 candidates who also have a Democratic nomination, are up against 104 solid Democrats, seven Democrat/Working Families, six Progressive/Democrats, one Democrat/Progressive, five pure Progressives, and 15 independents. Two candidates on the Liberty Union ticket and one on the Justice Party round out the competition.
Of the GOP candidates, Turner says 65 are strong contenders. With so few numbers on the right, minority whip Brian Savage, R-Swanton, said every race this election counts.
“With our numbers so low, it is critical that we win every race,” he said. “They are all important. Going into this we are hoping to gain seats.”
Smith acknowledged a number of close races this year, but he doesn’t think the Republicans will grab more than 50 seats in the House.
“I don’t know what would get them out of the super minority status,” he said.
Then again, he admitted, sometimes the races are anyone’s call.
“We always find after the election there are races that we didn’t think would be close or we’d lose or win, and we end up losing or winning them,” said Smith. “That’s just the way it happens.”
Rumble in Rutland
Ask any of the Democratic or Republican Party leaders where the most hotly contested races are, and they’ll kick off their list with Rutland.
When the Legislature created new House districts last year, they drew a one-candidate district around the border of Windsor and Rutland counties that included the homes of two incumbents: Eldred French, D-Cuttingsville, and Dennis Devereux, R-Belmont.
This year, they’ll go head-to-head.
“Both parties agreed this would be a fair fight and a competitive election with neither side having a clear advantage,” said Eric Davis, a retired Middlebury College political science professor.
The other major Rutland contests are in the three city districts where, in two of them, Democratic incumbents Rep. Margaret Andrews and Rep. Herb Russell will try to fend off Republicans Larry “Cooper” Cupoli and John Mattison Jr. Rutland city Democrat Gale Courcelle decided not to run, leaving an open slot for either Democrat Sherri Durgin-Campbell or Republican Douglas Gage.
In Rutland’s two-seat second district, Davis said he thinks Republican incumbent Tom Burditt of West Rutland is safe, but he said Democratic incumbent David Potter of North Clarendon could lose his seat to challenger Glenn Eno of Wallingford.
Give and take
There’s room for a lot of give and take between major parties, the Progressives and independents this election season.
One of the closest races, agree leaders from both major parties, is the race in Windsor and Orange counties between David Ainsworth, R-South Royalton, and Sarah Buxton, D-Tunbridge. In 2010, Buxton ousted Ainsworth, a then two-term incumbent, by just one vote. This year, Ainsworth is looking for reclaim his seat.
In Franklin’s St. Albans district, Republican Dustin Degree will leave his seat for a shot at the Senate, and Mike McCarthy will try to pick up an extra place at the table for the Dems, along with incumbent Kathleen Keenan. They will take on Republicans Stephen Trahan and Casey Toof.
In Addison County, Davis said five-term Rep. Harvey Smith, R-New Haven, could have his hands full with Ed McGuire, D-New Haven. While Smith is well known and well respected in his district, McGuire is locally well known, having taught math at Mount Abraham Union High School for 18 years. Davis, also a resident of Addison County, said former Democratic representative and Senate candidate Chirstopher Bray of New Haven has helped McGuire build a strong campaign.
The Dems also hope to grab a seat from the newly configured Lamoille Three District. With Republican Adam Howard of Cambridge hanging up his gloves, Nick Charyk said the Democrats have high hopes for Democrat Peter Ingvoldstad, who is the retired ski school director at Smuggler’s Notch. The Jefforsonville Democrat will face off against Independent Justin Marsh and Republican Bernie Juskiewicz, both of Cambridge.
Down in the Windham-Bennington-Windsor district, Republican Oliver Olsen’s decision not to run again will keep a seat away from the major parties, as neither one has a candidate in that contest. The southern race is between independents Emmett S. Dunbar of South Londonberry and Charles “Tim” Goodwin of Weston.
Paul Heintz of Seven Days noted that the Democrats are aiming to steal Republican Rep. Jim Eckhardt’s seat in Rutland-Windsor District 1 and will try to hold onto a Windsor seat vacated by Rep. Ernie Shand of Weathersfield. The political reporter also pointed out that Republican Alex Defelice of Wilder will have a second go at the two-member Windsor district, which lost Rep. Chuck Bohi of White River Junction, the district’s “top Democratic vote-getter,” as Heintz put it.
In Orange County, Davis said to watch for the Republicans targeting Progressive Rep. Susan Hatch Davis of West Topsham. He expects Republican incumbent Rep. Philip Winters of Williamstown to hold onto his set, and he thinks the other Williamstown Republican on the ballot, Rodney Graham, could beat Hatch Davis.
Longtime Progressive Rep. Sarah Edwards of Brattleboro is not running for re-election this year, which has given way to a battle for the Windham 3-3 district between Democrat Tristan Toleno and Liberty Union candidate Ian Diamondstone.
Prog power
Although Edwards isn’t running again, incumbent Rep. Chris Pearson, P-Burlington, is confident the Progressives will add to their five-representative team.
In Burlington’s Old North End, the Progs and the Dems are going to have an old-fashioned duel. Kit Andrews and Gene Bergman of the Progs are duking it out with Curt McCormack and incumbent Rep. Jill Krowinski, both of whom represent the Dems and the Working Families parties. Pearson expects at least one of his party’s two candidates to clinch a victory.
Progressive Mike O’Day is facing off against Republican John Mitchell and Independent Bob Shea for the Fairfax seat Democratic Rep. Gary Gilbert is leaving. Just north in the Franklin area, Republican incumbent Albert Chuck Pearce, Republican Steve Beyor and Democrat/Progressive Bob Irish are going toe-to-toe for two seats — one of which was previously occupied by Norm McAllister, who is trying his hand at a Senate race.
In the Orleans-Lamoille district, Progressive/Democrat Katherine Sims is in a race against Republican incumbent Mark Higley. As Davis pointed out, the fact that Dexter Randall held the seat for the Progs from 2005-2008 means the area is open to a Progressive candidate. In addition to Sims, Pearson said he thinks Progressive Cindy Weed could very well beat out Republican incumbent Rep. Peter Perley for the Enosburg and Montgomery district.
“I’m excited,” said Pearson. “We’ve got some great candidates running, and I think we’ll end up with more than we had.”
Correction: The Republicans are vacating nine seats, not 10 as originally reported, and Rep. Sarah Buxton won her seat by one vote, not two.
