Vermont state Senate races are heating up as the campaign season accelerates towards Election Day, and both major parties are aiming to conquer new territory.
The battlefield is overwhelmingly blue, save for a swath of red and an array of political hues found only in Vermont — like that purple created when a candidate runs under the banners of the Democratic, Republican and Working Families parties.
Of the 55 candidates competing for 30 seats in the state’s 13 senatorial districts, 42 percent are running as Democrats, 22 percent are running as Republicans and 13 percent are running as independents, according to the Secretary of State’s office.
Another 7 percent are splitting the party line Democrat and Progressive and/or Working Families, 5.5 percent are splitting the line Republican and Democrat (with a Working Families nod for senior most Sen. Bill Doyle of Washington County), and only Richard “Terry” Jeroloman of Chittenden County is running for Senate as a pure Progressive. The Liberty Union, Green, Tea, and Peace and Prosperity parties each have a candidate running in that race, too.
Vermont’s sagely political wonk Eric Davis sees the races in Chittenden, Franklin and Essex-Orleans as the hottest Senate contests this election season, as they all have open seats vacated by incumbents.
Senate President Pro Tempore John Campbell, D-Windsor, Democratic Party Chair Jake Perkinson and Republican Chair Jack Lindley are also keeping a close eye on the Franklin and Essex-Orleans races, as well as those in Caledonia, Washington and Windsor counties.
Will a “pure” Progressive make it to the Green Room? Will the GOP hold onto eight seats in the Senate? Those questions won’t be answered until Election Day, but one thing is fairly certain: The Democrats will likely dominate, given the odds and their level of incumbency. Eighteen Senate Dems (several of whom also bear the Progressive label) are running again, as opposed to just six Republicans.
Chittenden County
While Chittenden County doesn’t present the major party battleground that other districts do, a particularly close three-way race is shaping up in what Davis said is the nation’s largest state senatorial district.
This year, 14 candidates will vie for Chittenden’s six Senate seats. Of those candidates, five are incumbents: Tim Ashe, D/P-Burlington; Sally Fox, D-South Burlington; Ginny Lyons, D-Williston; Diane Snelling, R-Hinesburg; and Phil Baruth, D/WF-Burlington.
Campbell and Davis both think that Ashe, Fox, Lyons and Snelling are shoo-ins.
Lyons won the 2010 election with the most votes of any candidate, and Davis thinks she has a good chance of clinching her seventh term as the front-runner. Snelling, who is seeking her sixth term, is the only Republican candidate on the Chittenden ballot, giving her an edge with GOP supporters. Fox is seeking her second senatorial term, and Davis said she has a strong support base in the suburbs. Ashe, who is gunning for his third term in the Senate, ran for mayor of Burlington last year and has strong support from the Democratic and Progressive parties, and, as Davis added, he has the good fortune of having his name at the top of the ballot.
Davis and Campbell say Baruth, David Zuckerman, P/D-Hinesburg, and Debbie Ingram, D-Williston, are in a three-way race for two seats.
Environmental activist Bill McKibben of Ripton issued a statement supporting Baruth, who is a first-term incumbent, and McKibben and Burlington Mayor Miro Weinberger are both in a radio ad for the UVM professor.
Zuckerman, with his 14 years of legislative experience in the House, is running for Senate for the first time after taking a one-term leave from the Legislature, as he switched House districts when his family moved to a new farm in Hinesburg. Ingram, a Williston Selectboard member and an ordained minister for the United Church of Christ, is seeking her first term in the Legislature.
Although Zuckerman, a longtime Progressive, beat both Baruth and Ingram in the Democratic primary, a political action committee (PAC) run by Senate Democrats chose to support the other five candidates and not Zuckerman. As Seven Days’ Paul Heintz first reported, the Vermont Senate Victory PAC, which Campbell oversees, sent out thousands of letters calling on voters to support the other Democratic nominees. In addition to that mailer, said Campbell in a separate interview, the Dems also sent out letters advocating for Chittenden’s completely blue nominees: Lyons, Fox and Ingram.
Campbell said that he and the Dems made the call not to back Zuckerman because they wanted to focus resources on those candidates who were more loyal to the party. In this case, said Campbell, Ingram got the party nod.
“In the situation where there’s a full Democrat, someone who has been a Democrat all her life, and is running under the Democratic banner, then we want to support her,” he said. “David has no intention of becoming a Democrat or working with the Democrats anymore than he would work with the Republicans.”
Zuckerman said that he frequently sides with Democrats and he says he told Vermont’s Democratic leaders early on that if he won a Democratic nomination he would run as a Progressive/Democrat.
“My allegiance is to the issues, and 90 percent of the time I find myself on the side as the majority of the Democrats,” he said. “The proof of that is that the speaker named me chair of Agriculture (in the House) and that the issue groups that are important historical partners to the Democrats have endorsed me 100 percent.”
Zuckerman listed off a series of pro-union, pro-choice, pro-conservation, gay marriage and other left-leaning groups that support him, like the AFL-CIO, Planned Parenthood, the Sierra Club and others.
When Campbell was asked why the PAC supported Ashe, a Democrat/Progressive, but not Zuckerman, he said Ashe has shown a clearer allegiance to the Democratic Party, citing his Democratic run for Burlington mayor as an example.
As for Burlington’s former Mayor Bob Kiss, Davis doesn’t think the independent has much of a chance.
“I’d be surprised if Bob Kiss wins, but he could pull enough votes to affect other constituents,” he said.
Republicans hopeful in Franklin
Both sides of the fence have their sights set on the two Franklin County Senate seats that will soon be vacated by Randy Brock, R-St. Albans, who is running for governor, and Sara Kittell, D-Fairfield, who is retiring from the Legislature.
Lindley hopes the Republicans pick up a seat here. Longtime Republican Norm McAllister of Franklin and 27-year-old Republican Dustin Degree of St. Albans are vying with two Democrats, 22-year-old Caroline Bright of St. Albans, who was named Miss Vermont in 2010, and Don Collins of Swanton, who previously represented the district until Brock beat him in 2008.
Campbell acknowledged the potential for the Republicans to take the district.
“We have two Republicans that are very qualified and have served in the House and have won a lot of races, so that race will be a priority,” he said. “Fortunately, Don Collins, who was a senator prior, is back in.”
Davis thinks the Franklin race comes down to three candidates: the two Republicans and Collins.
“I’d be surprised if Caroline Bright were in the top two,” he said.
While Rep. Kesha Ram, D-Burlington, won a seat in the House when she was 22, Davis said winning a House seat is easier for a young candidate than winning a Senate seat. A 20-something contender vying for a seat in Burlington is more likely to win a place in the Statehouse because of the Queen City’s younger population.
“It’s easier to run for the House because the constituencies are a lot smaller,” he said. “It’s not unrealistic for a House candidate to meet just about everybody in the district between Labor Day and Election Day. In the Senate, that’s a lot harder.”
Dems aim to take Essex-Orleans
After 32 years representing the Essex-Orleans district, Sen. Vince Illuzzi, R-Newport, won’t be on the Senate ballot; he’ll be running for state auditor.
As the second most senior senator vacates his seat, the Democrats are hoping to capitalize on his absence.
Both Lindley and Campbell said incumbent Robert Starr, D-North Troy, will likely hold his post.
While the Republicans want to maintain status quos in Essex-Orleans, the Democrats are looking to tip the scale by grabbing the district’s second seat. John Rodgers is the only candidate who can do that. The former representative served in the House for eight years before losing in 2010 to Rep. Sam Young, D-Glover, by one vote.
Lindley doesn’t think Rodgers has enough momentum to beat Rep. Bob Lewis, R-Derby, or Jay Dudley, R-Orleans, who is running for his first term in the Statehouse.
“We’ll hold a Republican seat there,” said Lindley. “It’s a pretty strong Republican district. It will be hard for a Democrat in that neck of the woods.”
Caledonia and Washington in flux
Campbell is keeping an eye on the Caledonia race, while he roots for incumbent Sen. Jane Kitchel, D-Danville.
“Jane has been a life-long resident there, and she is extremely important to the Senate as she is the Appropriations chair,” he said. “She has just done such an incredible job. That’s one race I’m certainly paying very, very close attention to.”
Incumbent Joe Benning, R-Lyndonville, and former transportation secretary under the Douglas administration David Dill, R-Lyndonville, are facing off against Kitchel and Wheelock Selectman Stephon Amos, D-Wheelock, for Caledonia’s two Senate seats.
Lindley says Dill has a shot at taking the Senate seat away from Kitchel.
In the Washington County district, Jake Perkinson says all three incumbents — Sen. Ann Cummings, D-Montpelier; Sen. Anthony Pollina, P/D/WF-Middlesex; and Sen. Bill Doyle, R/D/WF-Montpelier — will likely be re-elected.
Republicans are rallying behind Bernard “Buddy” Barnett and Dexter Lefavour, who would be first-time incumbents, if elected.
On Tuesday, Illuzzi endorsed Barnett as “a man of great integrity.”
Lindley is hopeful Illuzzi’s endorsement will boost Barnett’s campaign.
“We could sneak another Republican Senate seat out of Washington County,” he said.
Windsor and Dick Tracy
Windsor’s three Senate seats are presently occupied by three Democrats: Sen. Campbell of Quechee, Sen. Dick McCormack of Bethel and Sen. Alice Nitka of Ludlow.
But Campbell is concerned that one Republican poses a threat to the Democratic stronghold: Dick Tracy of Sharon.
“There’s two things about Dick,” said Campbell. “No. 1, you’ll have a certain number of people who will (vote) for the novelty just to say, ‘I voted for Dick Tracy.” And second of all, Dick is a very smart guy — he’s a property appraiser and a journalist. He’s written weekly columns down here for as long as I can remember.
“He’s very conservative … and certainly with a name like Dick Tracy, you have to be concerned to some level.”
Lindley thinks Tracy has a serious shot at winning a Senate seat.
“Dick Tracy has a really solid campaign going, and he might surprise a few people,” said the Republican chair.
Editor’s note: This story was updated with additional information about Bob Kiss and the Vermont Senate Victory PAC at 10:18 a.m and again at 1 p.m. to include additional information about the Democratic Party’s mass mailings.
Correction: The Republicans currently hold eight Senate seats.
