Gov. Phil Scott holds a 10-point lead over progressive Democrat Amanda Janoo in a poll released Monday, a striking reversal from a separate survey last week that showed the race in a statistical tie.
Vermont Public’s 2026 Poll reported Scott is leading Janoo by 10 points, 42% to 32%. These results reflect a 16-point swing from Friday’s Green Mountain State Poll by the University of New Hampshire, which, based on margin of error in the survey, declared a “statistical tie,” with Janoo leading the race 49% to 43%.
“Public polling has always undervalued the Governor’s support,” Scott’s campaign spokesperson Emma Shouldice wrote in a statement Monday. She added that the Vermont Public poll was “much better” than the UNH survey, but still discounted Scott.
Among likely voters — the Vermonters polled who said they would “definitely” or “probably vote” — the margin remained 10 points with the incumbent Scott leading 44% to 34%. Sixteen percent of those likely voters remain unsure or have no opinion, according to the poll.
Vermont Public’s poll also reported former Democratic Lt. Gov. Molly Gray leading Republican incumbent John Rodgers by eight points in the lieutenant governor race. U.S. Rep. Becca Balint, D-Vt. is leading the congressional race against Republican nominee Gerald Malloy, 43% to 28%.
Longtime Vermont political journalist Chris Graff called last week’s UNH poll an “outlier.”
“I think the Vermont Public poll is a little more in line with how those of us who follow this closely see the race, which is that Governor Scott maintains a lead,” he said in an interview Monday. “Amanda Janoo has a strong following but is largely unknown.”
Scott remained the most popular governor in the country as of a July report by the firm Morning Consult. Vermont Public’s polling reported that Scott held a 45% approval rating, a 15-point decline since their last poll in 2022. UNH also reported a 47% approval rating, which had decreased by five points since July.
Graff said that declining approval ratings are to be expected for Scott, but that the drop could be explained by Scott not having “solved the problems that are facing the state of Vermont.” Alternatively, he said, Scott’s ratings could be explained by national sentiment.
“The national mood is such that if you have an ‘R’ beside your name — even if you’re someone like Phil Scott — that ‘R’ is an anchor,” Graff said.
Twenty percent is a significant number of uncertain voters this close to the election, Graff said. He expects that debates will “make a difference,” but that Janoo doesn’t have the “money or organization” to reach the “larger number of voters” across the state who are undecided.
“We haven’t seen (the candidates debate) yet,” Graff said. “She is not yet defined in the public. People haven’t seen her in person, so I think she was able to beat Aly Richards by being the candidate of change, and really electrifying that base, but it was a very narrow win. Now in a general election, you have a far, far larger number of voters you have to reach.”
Scott’s team remains confident that he and Vermonters are on the same page, Shouldice wrote.
“What we are certain of is that Vermonters share the Governor’s frustration on affordability issues and that’s why we’re focused on getting commonsense legislators elected that will work with him to lower property taxes, housing, healthcare and energy costs,” she wrote.
Janoo, an economist, had never run for office and was relatively unknown before her grassroots campaign. She also remains optimistic about November’s election, according to a Monday press release.
“This is going to be a close race but no matter what,” she wrote, “I’m incredibly proud of the way we’re bringing people together to celebrate the things we love about where we live, to invite people to articulate the Vermont we want for our children and grandchildren and to recognize together, we have everything we need to get there.”
