Updated 11:15 p.m.
Vermont was expecting a triple threat of heat, wildfire smoke and severe storms — including the possibility of tornadoes — from Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning, the National Weather Service reported.
The weather service has taken the rare step of issuing an “enhanced risk” designation for severe thunderstorms in northern Vermont, particularly in the Northeast Kingdom, said Tyler Danzig, a meteorologist for the weather service.
“The last time we had an enhanced risk anywhere in the state of Vermont was 2024, and that was for southern Vermont,” he said.
That means conditions are favorable for multiple types of hazards: high winds up to 70 or 75 mph, hail and tornadoes. Danzig cautioned there was still a lot of uncertainty about where and how severely the storms would hit.
“Models typically do not do very well” with the kind of cold front and convective air patterns expected tonight, he said. “It’s hard for them to understand how things are currently going since they evolve very quickly.”
On Tuesday afternoon, the Storm Prediction Center raised the probability of a tornado occurring between Essex County and eastern Orleans County from 5% to 10%, Danzig said. That doesn’t necessarily mean that a tornado would be more powerful, though: The current forecast is for a 0-2 out of 5 on the Enhanced Fujita Scale, which is based on wind speed and related damage.
“We’re not going to see any large, wide tornadoes, hopefully, like we would see in the plains,” he said.
Precipitation or mountains might also hide a tornado.
“You’re probably more than likely not going to see the tornado, if there is any tornado.”
Earlier Tuesday, the weather service pushed the expected arrival of the strongest storms later into the evening. As of 9:18 p.m., forecasters said the severe weather threat remained on track through the overnight hours, with damaging winds continuing to pose the primary hazard.
Much of northern and central Vermont remained under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 4 a.m.
The latest weather service reported that wildfire smoke reduced daytime heating, limiting some of the atmospheric instability that fuels severe thunderstorms. Forecasters said uncertainty remained over exactly how storms would evolve overnight, but continued to warn that damaging wind gusts, large hail and isolated tornadoes remained possible as storms moved across the region.
Another, less severe storm is expected to hit the Champlain Valley region between 12 a.m. and 3 a.m., Danzig said.
Danzig said his greatest concern was for people camping in the northern end of the state who may not be aware of what’s happening as it unfolds.
“Cell service might not be that great, and with the terrain, you may not see things coming,” he said. “We want to stress people to be weather aware before they go to bed tonight, or have a plan in place for evacuations or for safety precautions later this evening into the overnight period.”
If you start to experience high winds or lightning while camping, Danzig advised moving to a sturdy building or your vehicle. While significant flooding isn’t in the forecast, he said people should stay away from water sources as much as possible to avoid small-scale, localized flash flooding.
Eric Forand, director of Vermont Emergency Management, said Vermonters should make sure to secure any loose outdoor items like deck chairs so they don’t become projectiles.
“Seventy-plus mile-an-hour winds are obviously problematic in a place that doesn’t have hurricanes or tornadoes very often,” he said.
Danzig added that people at home should close their windows to prevent pressure buildup that could shatter glass. People should move away from windows into a more secure place in their homes if winds get particularly severe, he advised.
Regardless of location, people should consider charging their phones, turning on Wireless Emergency Alerts and keeping a flashlight handy, he said.
At a state level, Vermont Emergency Management is working to put together rescue teams and potential shelter spaces if they are needed, Forand said.
Kristin Kelly, director of communications at Green Mountain Power, said the utility was preparing to direct their teams toward any outages that might come from the high winds.
She said Green Mountain Power customers should sign up for text alerts, allowing them to text the company about any outages and receive updates about their status.
The American Red Cross opened an emergency evacuation shelter at 6 p.m. Tuesday at the Newport Municipal Building Gym, at 222 Main St. in Newport.
“The Red Cross shelters are ready to provide safe, welcoming spaces for anyone who needs it,” said John Montes, regional disaster officer for the Red Cross of Northern New England, who urged campers and people in vulnerable locations to move before conditions worsen.
Heat advisory in effect
The entire state of Vermont was under a heat advisory Tuesday, with the heat index expected to reach above 100 degrees in the Champlain Valley and portions of southeastern Vermont. Danzig said the heat is only expected to last for one day, making it a little less severe than the heat wave Vermont experienced earlier this summer.
As of Tuesday night, National Weather Service forecasters said they were continuing to monitor how the evolving environment would affect storm development as the system moved through Vermont overnight.
Correction: A previous version of this story misspelled Tyler Danzig’s name in one instance.Correction: A previous version of this story misspelled Tyler Danzig’s name in one instance.
