This story by Patrick Bilow was first published in News & Citizen on Jan. 15, 2026.
A study commissioned by the Lamoille South Supervisory Union predicts that school enrollments in Stowe, Morristown and Elmore will decline 10% by the 2030 school year, reflecting trends in rural towns throughout Vermont as the state ages and grows increasingly expensive.
At recent Stowe and Elmore-Morristown school board meetings, Lamoille South Supervisory Union Superintendent Ryan Heraty introduced the study to school board members and explained how the supervisory union might react to a slow enrollment decline over the next four years.
The study was produced by the Boston firm Statistical Forecasting LLC. In 2021, the supervisory union hired the New England Development Council to conduct a similar study, but the results were largely rejected due to controversial options for utilizing Lamoille South’s eight buildings, including shuttering some of them and rerouting students to different locations.
Heraty said the new report is focused more narrowly on student population and doesn’t make recommendations. Enrollment trends in local schools are frequently referenced in housing and affordability discussions throughout Lamoille County, particularly in Stowe, and the Stowe School board wanted a study that dovetails with the Town of Stowe’s Housing Needs Assessment.
“With all of the statewide discussion around consolidation and thinking about Vermont’s overall demographic trends, leaning towards an aging population, declining student enrollments — all of that — we want to think more local,” Heraty said. “How is this going to impact our schools here? And what do we see around housing trends that are going to impact our kindergarten, first and second grade enrollments so that we can start preparing for the future?”
Although overall town populations in Stowe, Morristown and Elmore have increased over the last decade, and are expected to increase in the future, according to the study, school enrollments in those towns have declined by 10%, from 1,592 in 2016 to 1,406 this year, after peaking at 1,694 students in 2017.
Throughout the Lamoille South Supervisory Union, kindergarten through fifth-grade classrooms have experienced the largest decline over the last eight years. Enrollment for that age group is currently at 544, a decrease of 132 students since 2016. According to the study, school enrollment for that age group is expected to dip over the next three years before leveling out at this year’s figure by 2030.
Enrollment for grades 6-8 has held relatively steady, declining by just 48 students over the last eight years, but that figure is expected to decline another 65 students by 2030.
High school enrollment district-wide has swung by nearly 100 students over the last eight years, ranging from 497 to 589, but figures for 2016 and 2025 are nearly even at 521 and 515, respectively. By 2030, that high school enrollment is expected to decline 12%.
While the study illustrated what many in Lamoille County’s housing and affordability circle already recognize — that a lack of viable housing and declining homestead rates are impacting local school enrollments — members of the Stowe school board said they aren’t necessarily concerned about declining enrollment.
“In my experience, it’s not unusual to see these ups and downs,” Stowe School Board Chair Tiffany Donza said.
In Stowe and Morristown, atypically large high school classes are currently graduating, inflating enrollment trends over the last few years, but elementary school enrollment has been low, partially explaining a projected enrollment decline by 2030 as those students move through the school system.
Prior to Act 60 and Act 68, both of which imposed a new funding formula for Vermont schools, Donza said enrollment wasn’t as much of a consideration. But the new formula started rewarding districts with more students and schools started watching their numbers closely, Donza said.
“It made it so students come with dollars,” Donza said, “Which is a disadvantage to Stowe for so many reasons.”
To understand enrollment trends, Heraty pointed to the median age of a community, saying those small elementary school classes coming up are indicative of greater housing and affordability issues facing families.
According to the study by Statistical Forecasting LLC, a housing boom from 1990 to 2009 benefitted a younger median age group who were moving to town. But as that group ages, and their children graduate, housing development has rapidly declined, and the median age has increased.
From 2000 to 2009, 1,207 homes were built in the Lamoille South Supervisory Union, almost twice as many as the next decade. From 2010 to 2020, there were only 666 homes built, according to the study. Stowe’s grand list has also increased significantly and the homestead rate has declined.
“The problem isn’t demand; it’s availability of affordable housing,” Heraty said. “It’s really hard to be in a position where you know that people want to be here and they want to live in our communities, but the housing just doesn’t exist for them.”
While Heraty is not sounding the alarm of declining enrollment, the Lamoille South Supervisory Union has begun making subtle changes to respond to the trend.
The supervisory union has already reduced central office positions and will reduce support staff positions this year.
“We don’t need to look at this as a negative,” Donza said. “We just need to plan for it and properly staff the schools.”
