This commentary is by Jim Stiles of St. Albans, a member of the Vermont Healthy Soil Coalition.
The Global Warming Solutions Act — the name says it all. Vermont has made solving global warming — inherently a global problem — the lead focus for Vermont’s climate action.
Unfortunately, until a whole lot of people around the world cooperate, no one gets much benefit from cutting greenhouse gases. Given recalcitrant nations like Russia, China and India, and climate deniers in the U.S. (including Vermont), Vermont’s global warming “solution” isn’t going to actually solve anything, at least not anytime soon.
If the Global Warming Solutions Act does manage to meet its greenhouse gas reduction goals for Vermont, the only actual victory will be a moral victory. And although I would love to have that moral victory — I embrace our greenhouse gas-cutting goals — it is not enough.
Vermont’s primary goal — or at the least, co-equal goal — for our climate action should be protecting Vermont and Vermonters from climate change impacts. We do owe it to the world to do our fair share in solving the larger problem.
However we also owe it to our children, loved ones, friends and neighbors, and to ourselves to protect ourselves from climate change’s impacts. Unlike the global goal of reversing climate change, we can succeed in this effort. Moral victories are fine things, but practical victories that save lives and make our lives better are much better things.
Climate adaptation — working out ways to live with climate change impacts — was a lesser mandate under the Global Warming Solutions Act. Unfortunately, the adaptation section of the Climate Action Plan was extremely weak. It did not put us on a path to protecting Vermont and Vermonters from climate impacts.
A good plan for adaptation must account for the most challenging conditions we might reasonably expect to face. This is closely related to how much Vermont and the world warm. The dream of limiting global temperature increases to 2ºC (which means something like 5ºC rise here in Vermont) is a pleasant one, but for the purposes of planning for adaptation is pretty worthless. Even dewy-eyed optimists are now acknowledging that 2.4 to 2.8ºC is much more likely.
Since those values assume that the world immediately gets serious about cutting greenhouse gases, reasonable worst case estimates must be higher.
This gets us to a point where reasonable people can differ. Of course, it is always possible that the world will get better at cutting greenhouse gases. If so, great — we will have erred on the safe side. However, if we are to confidently protect ourselves, friends and loved ones, we need to prepare for well over 3ºC of global temperature increase.
Although it appears unlikely that global averages will rise as much as 4ºC, there is no compelling evidence that they won’t. The lack of evidence to the contrary suggests a reasonable worst case (for the purposes of planning) of 4ºC of warming globally is justified. This translates to something like 10ºC (18ºF) of warming in Vermont, most of which will occur in colder months.
The current Climate Action Plan fails utterly to address such conditions in Vermont.
In previous commentaries, I have discussed specific actions people and communities can undertake to prepare for climate impacts. I recently encountered an exciting new climate initiative taking shape in central Vermont. In a proposal to the Environmental Action Network, a program for creating community hubs (modeled on hubs found in some cities ) was introduced.
In larger cities, these hubs mostly focus on emergency services for climate disasters. The new proposal is for hubs matched to the needs of our smaller communities. Although emergency services are included, Vermont communities have some advantages over big cities in responding to emergencies. On the other hand, big cities tend to already have lots of ordinary services and amenities, which are often absent from Vermont communities, which increases our reliance on cars.
Hubs that provide such services make communities and neighborhoods more walkable and reduce the need for cars and driving. Since transportation is the biggest source of greenhouse gases in Vermont and a major drain on Vermont’s economy, benefits could be large. Transportation services at these hubs would greatly improve the lives of people who don’t have cars, and allow others to get rid of a car that might no longer be needed.
Reliable access to services and amenities that make our lives better IS resilience. Many thanks to the Vermont Energy & Climate Action Network for recently hosting a Zoom presentation on this initiative.
There are lots of ways to prepare for climate change. Although the planning process should include cutting greenhouse gases, it should prioritize protecting the safety, health and prosperity of Vermonters. Unlike strategies based on cutting greenhouse gases, the prospects of success in climate adaptation in Vermont are excellent.
