As Covid-19 transmission remains near record levels in Vermont following Thanksgiving, Gov. Phil Scott’s administration continues to center vaccination efforts ahead of an anticipated Christmas and New Year’s surge.
The state’s seven-day average of daily new cases is 414 — down from a recent high of 485, but still 35% higher than one month ago.
Those case numbers are largely attributable to Thanksgiving gatherings, officials said at Scott’s weekly press conference Tuesday. And with Christmas and New Year’s Day around the corner, the virus is unlikely to recede for at least several more weeks.
This week’s case counts represent a “reprieve” from the Thanksgiving surge, said Financial Regulation Commissioner Mike Pieciak, who leads the state’s Covid-19 modeling efforts. But an array of forecasts, as well as last year’s data on the effects of holiday gatherings, suggest cases are likely to rise — “probably on the upper end of our projections over the next two or three weeks following those holidays,” Pieciak said.
Scott said that no change in strategy is planned. The administration remains focused on vaccines to curb the worst effects of the surge and does not plan to pursue any statewide mitigation measures.
About 5% of Vermont adults — roughly 40,000 people — remain unvaccinated, Scott said.
Unvaccinated people accounted for 72% of hospitalizations and 77% of intensive care unit patients in the past week, according to data presented by Pieciak. (Those percentages include all ages, though children are being hospitalized at far lower rates than older adults.)
Scott said it would be unfair to impose mandates on fully vaccinated people.
“The vast majority of Vermonters have stepped up, done the right thing and gotten vaccinated. As a result, they’re not the problem,” Scott said. “I simply can’t justify going back into a state of emergency, putting restrictions on the 95% of Vermont adults who’ve done the right thing and gotten vaccinated.”
Scott’s comments arrive as many health experts continue to call for indoor mask mandates, citing the transmissibility of the Delta variant even among vaccinated people and the looming unknowns of another contagious variant, Omicron.
[Looking for data on breakthrough cases? See our reporting on the latest available statistics.]
At least 16 Vermont cities and towns have instituted local mask mandates, and New York and California in recent days adopted temporary statewide mask mandates.
Omicron has now been discovered in every state bordering Vermont, as well as in Quebec. While the variant is still being studied, early reports indicate it is more contagious than previous variants, but the severity of cases remains unclear.
No Omicron cases have been identified yet in Vermont, Health Commissioner Mark Levine said at Tuesday’s press conference. Nor has the strain been detected through wastewater screening in Burlington, according to a statement Monday from Mayor Miro Weinberger’s office.
“We will certainly inform Vermonters when — not if — Omicron is identified in our state,” Levine said.
Both the holiday surge and the Omicron threat make it crucial that eligible Vermonters get booster shots, officials said Tuesday.
Over the past six weeks, unvaccinated people were 30 times more likely to be hospitalized for Covid-19 than people who had been vaccinated and boosted, according to data presented by Pieciak. Unvaccinated people were 34 times more likely to die from the virus than people with their booster shots.
Vermont leads the nation with 42% of the fully vaccinated population having received a booster dose, according to state data. Levine said that rate is not nearly high enough.
“We need to be well above the 50% threshold with Delta, knowing all we know about it, and with Omicron on the horizon,” Levine said. “You are not fully protected until you’ve gotten that booster.”
Boosters are now available to those 16 and older. (Those age 16 or 17 must receive the Pfizer shot.)
Recipients must have received their last dose of the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine at least six months prior or their Johnson & Johnson vaccine at least two months prior. Boosters are available at all state-run clinics and many pharmacies.
Levine also said Vermonters should use common-sense protections for holiday gatherings: talk to participants about their vaccination and booster status, consider wearing masks around higher-risk people, use a rapid test a day or two before the gathering, and test again five to seven days after. Stay home if you are sick, Levine said.
New cases, hospitalizations and deaths
The Vermont Department of Health reported 237 new Covid-19 cases and four deaths on Tuesday, bringing the death toll for the pandemic to 436. Twenty Vermonters have died so far in December, according to Pieciak.
The state reported that 77 people were hospitalized with the virus, with 19 of those people in intensive care. Two more people were hospitalized with suspected cases.
The department is adjusting its reporting of hospitalization numbers, said Secretary of Human Services Mike Smith.
That statistic previously included patients at the Brattleboro Retreat and the Vermont Psychiatric Care Hospital who had tested positive for Covid, Smith said — but those patients were not typically being treated for Covid at those facilities. Moving forward, the state would exclude those patients from the hospital count. It was unclear what date the change took effect, and a request for clarification was not immediately answered.
Tuesday also marked the latest weekly release of data on cases in schools and long-term care facilities.
The health department reported a record-high 258 cases in Vermont schools. The previous high of 256 was reported on Nov. 16.
Cases in long-term care facilities, however, have sharply dropped off. The state reported 29 cases in just seven outbreaks, down from a recent high of 17 outbreaks reported on Nov. 30. All of those facilities are reporting fewer than a dozen cases, and four of those outbreaks have fewer than six cases.
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