At first glance, Vermont’s data would suggest positive news about the spread of Covid-19 in the state. Cases have dropped 13% over the past week, the most significant drop since the Delta surge began this summer.
But at the same time, testing declined a whopping 32%, suggesting that lower case counts were more likely the result of fewer people getting tested. The positivity rate — the percentage of PCR tests that came back positive for Covid-19 — rose 23%, according to a presentation from Mike Pieciak, commissioner of the Department of Financial Regulation.
Pieciak said the people who sought testing on Thanksgiving or the days after were more likely to be symptomatic, raising the positivity rate. Colleges and K-12 schools also did not conduct regularly scheduled testing because their students were on break.
The Department of Health reported 183 Covid cases among K-12 students and staff in the past week, its lowest weekly total in the past month.
Testing dropped across the region as well, except in Quebec, where cases have continued to steadily rise. (Canadians celebrate Thanksgiving in October.)
Data on hospitalizations, which are less affected by holiday swings, suggests that Vermont is still hard-hit by the virus. The state Department of Health reported a record-setting 82 hospitalizations on Tuesday, including 22 people in intensive care units.
Roughly 70% of hospital patients and 80% of ICU patients are unvaccinated, even though unvaccinated Vermonters form only 25% of the population age 5 or older, according to the state data.
Pieciak presented new data on the effect of boosters on preventing hospitalization. In November, the hospitalization rate for people who were fully vaccinated and had their booster shot was 6 per 100,000 people.
For people who were fully vaccinated without a booster, the rate was 18 per 100,000. For not fully vaccinated people — people with one shot or none — the rate was 81 per 100,000, according to the Pieciak presentation.
Pieciak said the high uptake of boosters among the older population — 64% of people 65 and older — could be why Vermont reported a decline in fatalities in November despite rising case counts.
Vermont has reported 34 deaths so far in November, down from 46 in October and 50 in September, according to Pieciak’s presentation. That may not be the full monthly total, as the state often adds death data retroactively.
It’s also worth noting that death metrics tend to lag behind cases and hospitalizations as the virus runs its course in severely ill patients.
The state has expanded its booster program to all adults. State officials encouraged Vermonters to get their next shot.
[Looking for data on breakthrough cases? See our reporting on the latest available statistics.]
“By protecting yourself, you protect those around you, including family, community and those who are more vulnerable,” said Health Commissioner Mark Levine. “And the more Vermonters that are protected, the less burden on our health care system, which means people who need hospital care for whatever reason can get it.”
Levine also encouraged parents to set up appointments for children 5 to 11 years old to receive their vaccines. About 41% of kids in that age group have received their first dose so far.
Gov. Phil Scott also urged Vermonters to wear masks indoors, particularly in public spaces. But he once again defended his decision to not impose a mask order, despite public pressure from the Legislature and health experts.
“The continued debate about whether it should be mandated or whether it should be utilized is just making the problem worse, from my standpoint,” he said.
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