Just one week ago, Vermont state officials were cautiously pointing to a seven-day drop in Covid-19 cases as evidence that the Delta wave may be coming to an end.
Those numbers have now completely rebounded. The state Department of Health on Tuesday reported a seven-day average of 217 infections per day, close to the record of 218 set on Sept. 20.
That average includes 132 new cases reported on Tuesday. The state also disclosed seven new Covid-related deaths over the long weekend. In total, 339 people with the virus have died since the start of the pandemic and 14 have died so far in October.
State officials had predicted in August that infections would begin to subside as soon as early September, based on an analysis of Delta trends that showed case number declining in other countries after eight weeks.
The United States as a whole has reported declining case levels, hospitalizations and deaths.
At a press conference Tuesday, Gov. Phil Scott acknowledged that his administration had been surprised by the duration of the surge. “They went back up for whatever reason. I don't know, I wish I had the answer,” he said. “I think we all wish we had the answer.”
The governor suggested that small to midsize gatherings may be partly responsible, rather than larger public gatherings. He said his administration would watch the trends in Massachusetts after large gatherings at Fenway Park and the Boston Marathon.
Levine said community transmission, not a pattern of outbreaks, has led to the latest surge.
Vermont currently has no Covid restrictions for the general public. State Health Commissioner Mark Levine said that a “total lockdown” may prevent Covid deaths, but “at the same time, I do think a total lockdown for much of the population, never mind in Vermont but anywhere in the country, would be intolerable for many.”
Levine defended the lack of a statewide mask mandate, saying there’s no clear evidence that a mask mandate would prevent community transmission during the Delta surge.
But, he said, “I've been very consistently standing up here recommending indoor masking in concert with the [U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention].”
“Look at who would abide by a mandate, which would probably be the people who have already been vaccinated … and who would not abide by it, which might be the people who [we] would want most to abide by it,” such as unvaccinated people, he said.
Health experts recently questioned Scott’s claim that mask mandates in other states hadn’t worked, saying that the data doesn’t support his opinion.
The latest data from the Department of Health shows that 49 people were in the hospital as of Tuesday, including 16 people in intensive care units. Commissioner Mike Pieciak of the Department of Financial Regulation said new hospitalizations have declined in the past seven days, particularly among fully vaccinated Vermonters.
Case rates are highest among children from 5 to 14 years old, but hospital stays for Covid are highest among people over the age of 70, according to data from Pieciak’s department.
Officials at Tuesday’s press conference encouraged Vermonters to get vaccinated or to get their booster dose of the Pfizer vaccine if they meet broad eligibility categories. About 498,100 Vermonters have gotten at least one dose of the vaccine. About 29,000 people have gotten a booster dose.
Schools still hit hard
The Department of Health on Tuesday also reported 158 Covid cases in K-12 schools within the past week among students or staff who were infectious while in a school building. That’s the second-highest one-week total the state has reported this school year.
The department retroactively added another 18 cases to previous weeks, raising the school year total to 827 infections.
Leading the data in the past week were Barre Elementary, with 10 cases, and Hardwick Elementary School, with nine cases. Derby Elementary reported no new cases in the past week, but continued to have the highest infection count, with 31 cases.
Secretary of Education Dan French said Tuesday that the department had prepared school districts for the “test-to-stay” program, which tests close contacts while keeping them in school, by helping them get a federal waiver and training 35 people to conduct antigen testing.
Scott said he understood that the first six weeks of the school year had been “tough,” but called for civility and cooperation from parents.
Some parents have not complied with guidance to keep their children quarantined or faced difficulty getting childcare when their children are told to stay home from school, French said.
“Schools are not designed to work in conflict with their parents and their communities. The educational process is a partnership,” French said. “So I’m hopeful test-to-stay will not only be efficient and effective, but also lead to less conflict in our communities, since it enables more students to stay in school full time.”
