Unvaccinated Vermonters are three to four times more likely than vaccinated Vermonters to contract Covid-19 in the current period of spread, according to new data from the Vermont Department of Health.
Every other Friday, the department provides a summary of new cases, outbreaks and other data on the spread of the coronavirus. The report includes the only regular release of information on the vaccination status of new cases. Infections among vaccinated people are known as breakthrough infections.
Health officials have repeatedly emphasized that since vaccinations began, breakthrough cases have involved only a small percentage of the vaccinated population. That rate hovered around 0.06% throughout the summer. In the reporting period ending Aug. 25, the rate rose to 0.27%.
Since mid-July, the weekly rate of new cases among the unvaccinated population has been three to four times higher than that of the vaccinated population.
Data presented this week by the Department of Financial Regulation showed that, in the week leading up to Aug. 22, the case rate for unvaccinated people (28%) outpaced that of fully vaccinated people (18%).
Breakthrough cases are expected to increase in part because the number of Vermonters who have been vaccinated is increasing every day.
Focusing on breakthrough infections is “not a fair comparison or analysis,” Gov. Phil Scott said at his weekly press conference on Tuesday, noting that the vast majority of the state is vaccinated. As of Friday, 85.8% of Vermonters age 12 and over have gotten at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine.
But experts have argued that, while vaccines offer substantial protection compared to being unvaccinated, recent data shows the Delta variant poses a greater risk to vaccinated people than previous Covid strains.
Data from August shows that, in addition to representing 36.9% of total cases through Aug. 25, vaccinated people accounted for 14 out of 65 hospitalizations and four out of 13 deaths in that period. (Hospitalizations and deaths occur more frequently among older Vermonters, who are also more likely to have other health conditions.)
Given the heightened risk, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since late July has recommended that vaccinated people wear masks in indoor public settings and get tested after close contact with an infected person. Current Vermont guidelines leave those decisions up to personal choice.
A group of 91 health department employees this week issued a letter to the department’s leaders, urging them to bring state guidance in line with CDC recommendations.
“It is our belief that our current public guidance, which encourages only unvaccinated individuals to wear a mask and makes no mention of the risk of Covid-19 among unmasked vaccinated individuals, is not based on our best understanding of the way the Delta variant is spreading,” the letter said.
On Friday, the health department separately released daily numbers showing there had been 144 new cases of Covid in the past day. It also added two new deaths to the data, bringing the total to 15 deaths so far in August. In total, 275 people have died in the pandemic.
Thirty people are currently hospitalized with the virus, including four in the ICU. That’s a slight downtick in hospitalizations from a peak of 35 this week. It’s unclear how many of those former patients have recovered or died.
Outbreaks continue to rise
The health department data summary also provides a glimpse at the rising number of outbreaks in Vermont. There are 29 active outbreaks, up from 19 in the reporting period ending Aug. 13.
New cases associated with outbreaks were reported in four types of settings:
- Congregate care: 44 new among residents, 14 new among staff
- Schools and child care: 52 new among children and staff
- Workplaces or businesses: 16 new
- Community, referring to social gatherings or events: eight new
Documented long-term care outbreaks include four facilities the state reported on Tuesday: Maple Lane Nursing Home in Barton, Ethan Allen Residence in Burlington, Maple Ridge Assisted Living and Memory Care in Essex Junction, and the Vermont Veterans Home in Bennington.
A separate outbreak at Cedar Hill Health Care in Windsor, reported Wednesday by the Valley News, was not included in the health department’s Tuesday report.
Racial disparities persist
The latest health department data shows that Black Vermonters continue to experience the highest rates of Covid in the state, and their case rate is rising faster than other racial groups.
Black Vermonters have a cumulative Covid rate of 980 per 10,000 people, compared to a rate of 382 per 10,000 among white Vermonters. Asian Vermonters and people marked as “Other race” also reported higher Covid case rates than white Vermonters.
Hispanic Vermonters, who are tallied separately, had a Covid rate of 519 per 10,000, compared to 380 per 10,000 among non-Hispanic Vermonters.
The health department doesn’t share the rate of new cases by race directly, but by comparing the latest cumulative data to older reports, it’s possible to see that Covid cases are rising faster among Black Vermonters.
Covid cases among Black Vermonters rose 43 percentage points in the past two weeks, while they rose only 23 percentage points among white Vermonters.