Going into August, state officials hoped Vermont would see few, if any, Covid deaths, even as the number of cases rose. On August 3, a modeling presentation at Gov. Phil Scott’s weekly press conference forecasted between zero and six Covid deaths in the state for the month of August.
But Vermont has now seen more than twice the high end of that range. The state added two new deaths to its count Thursday, bringing it to 13 so far this month. In total, 273 Vermonters have died in the pandemic.
The Health Department reported 141 new infections Thursday. Thirty-three people are currently hospitalized with the virus, including eight in intensive care units.
Why did reality so far exceed predictions? It could be that the state’s forecast underestimated the full impact of the Delta variant on the latest surge, which had already begun by August 3.
One model the state used, created by Johns Hopkins University and Oliver Wyman, a consulting firm, predicted the state could have over 100 cases per day by mid-August; close to how case numbers actually shaped up.
But another model in the presentation, a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention forecast, predicted that Vermont cases would plateau by mid-August. It’s unclear which model the state used to calculate its death forecast.
Even with 13 deaths, the state’s latest surge is not yet nearly as deadly as the peak of the pandemic last winter and spring. Last December, 71 people died of Covid in a single month. Many of those deaths occurred at long-term care facilities, which reported massive outbreaks.
There have been some reports of outbreaks at long-term care facilities this summer, but they appear to be fewer and less severe so far. Those facilities were prioritized for vaccination last winter.
New cases are still being reported, leading to the possibility of a rising death toll. Deaths are a lagging indicator, often occurring weeks or months after a case is first identified. And it can take additional time for a death to be confirmed and added to Department of Health data.
