Editors of “The Almanac of American Politics” share their Vermont political outlook with VTDigger readers in the latest edition of the prestigious 50-year-old publication, due out in August.
Vermont may be one of the most liberal states in the union, but voters have elected Phil Scott, a Republican, as their governor three times, and by increasing margins.
Scott was born in Barre, earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Vermont, and co-owned a company, DuBois Construction, that he sold, as he had promised, prior to his inauguration as governor. A stock-car enthusiast, Scott also founded a program called Wheels for Warmth, which enabled Vermont residents to donate tires they no longer need, with some being resold to benefit heating-fuel assistance programs and others recycled. Scott won a state Senate seat in 2000 and served for a decade. In 2010, he ran for lieutenant governor, which in Vermont is elected separately from the governor. In the general election, he defeated Democrat Steven Howard, 49%-42%, as Democrat Peter Shumlin was winning the open-seat gubernatorial race. As lieutenant governor, Scott started the “Vermont Everyday Jobs” initiative, in which he worked a few hours several times a month in different jobs, aiming to promote state businesses and highlight local workers. Scott was fiscally conservative but steered a moderate course overall; by the time he ran for reelection in 2012, he was endorsed by the state affiliate of the National Education Association. Scott won a second term over Democrat Cassandra Gekas, 57%-40%. Two years later, he won a third term without even facing a Democratic candidate.
When Shumlin decided against running for a fourth two-year term as governor in 2016, Scott jumped into the race. First, though, Scott had to win the August GOP primary against former Wall Street executive Bruce Lisman. On the big issues, such as their stances toward business, taxation and the state’s health care system, Scott and Lisman were generally on the same page. Instead, the race boiled down to a faceoff between a Montpelier insider (Scott) and a political outsider (Lisman). With the backing of much of the party establishment, Scott won the primary, 60%-39%. In the competitive Democratic primary, state Transportation Secretary Sue Minter prevailed decisively over former state Sens. Matt Dunne and Peter Galbraith. But Scott was able to maintain his image as a moderate pragmatist in the mold of the state’s two most recent Republican governors, Richard Snelling and Jim Douglas. Even as Hillary Clinton was defeating Donald Trump by a 57%-30% margin, voters backed Scott over Minter, 53%-44%. (Scott had withheld his support from Trump.) Scott’s victory made him the only Republican to hold statewide office in Vermont.
In his first year, Scott vetoed a marijuana legalization bill, though by January of the following year he reversed himself and signed a similar bill, acknowledging “mixed emotions.” With the bill’s enactment, Vermont became the first state to approve recreational marijuana through legislative action rather than by a popular vote. In 2018, Scott vetoed a range of proposed fee increases as well as a minimum wage hike to $15. Republicans in the legislature sustained Scott’s vetoes. His most consequential action, however, addressed a third rail of Vermont politics: gun control. Scott and legislators enacted a package that included a ban on bump stocks and large magazines; a requirement that gun sales be handled through a licensed dealer; and permission for police to temporarily confiscate guns from individuals deemed to pose an immediate threat. In 2016, Scott had campaigned on not changing the state’s gun laws, but he said he changed his mind after the mass school shooting in Parkland Florida in February 2018, as well as a case that involved a Columbine- style plan to shoot up a school in Vermont that was stopped in time. Scott’s change of heart enraged many Republicans: At the bill signing, he was heckled with calls of “Traitor!” and “BS!”
As the GOP base grew restive, Scott’s once-charmed approval ratings sank and Keith Stern, a political novice and owner of Stern’s Quality Produce in White River Junction, challenged Scott from the right in 2018. But with help from the Republican Governors Association, Scott prevailed, 67%-33%. The Democrats, meanwhile, had a four-way primary, won by Christine Hallquist, the former CEO of Vermont Electric Cooperative and a transgender woman. Despite national media attention, Hallquist was a heavy underdog, due to Scott’s ability to maintain support among moderate-to-liberal voters by openly defying Trump. Scott opposed Trump’s immigration policies; he pledged to uphold the Paris climate accord after Trump pulled out; he declined to endorse Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination; and he opposed GOP efforts to roll back the Affordable Care Act. Scott won another term, 55%-40%, with Hallquist taking only one county, Windham (Brattleboro). Scott flipped the state’s most populous county, Chittenden (Burlington), though Democrats gained ground in both legislative chambers, making it harder for Republicans to sustain Scott’s vetoes.
In 2019, Scott signed a bill that enshrined abortion rights and another that officially changed Columbus Day to Indigenous Peoples’ Day, making Vermont the third state to make that switch. But he vetoed a measure that would have instituted a waiting period for gun purchases. Scott explained his veto by saying that with the earlier package of gun laws in place, “we must now prioritize strategies that address the underlying causes of violence and suicide” rather than passing new restrictions. Scott went on to veto three major bills in 2020; two of them were overridden by the legislature. Scott’s veto of a statewide family leave bill was sustained; he objected to the required $29 million payroll tax. But the legislature overrode Scott’s veto of a bill to increase the minimum wage to $12.55 by 2022 and then index it to inflation. And they overrode his veto of a measure that set targets for reducing carbon emissions to 80 percent below 2005 levels by 2050. Scott said he supported efforts to tackle climate change but opposed the bill’s provision that allowed lawsuits against the state if it fell short of the targets. Meanwhile, Scott signed a bill to accelerate expungements of past marijuana convictions, and he allowed a second bill, to legalize marijuana sales, to become law without his signature. A law to overhaul the rules for the use of deadly force by police also became law without his signature.
What bolstered Scott’s standing among voters the most was his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. He issued an early stay-at-home order and mandated masks statewide in July. Between mid-June and mid-July, Vermont was the only state in the nation to go a full month without a death from the virus. Meanwhile, Scott continued to distance himself from Trump. Scott backed former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld over Trump in the GOP primary, and he announced on Election Day that he had crossed party lines to vote for Joe Biden. “I put country over party,” he said, adding that Biden could “heal the country.” In his own election, Scott faced Democratic Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman, who had won a competitive primary against former state Education Secretary Rebecca Holcombe and two other candidates. But with Scott’s approval consistently high, the race never became competitive; moreover, the last time an incumbent Vermont governor lost a reelection bid was 1962. In the end, Scott almost tripled his margin of victory compared to 2018, from 15 points to 41; he won every county, flipping Windham County and increasing his winning margin in Chittenden County from four points to 37. Scott more than doubled Trump’s vote in Vermont. These days, there aren’t many Vermont Republicans with bright political futures, but Scott’s reputation remains strong.
The 2022 Almanac of American Politics, 50th Commemorative Edition, will be released in August 2021 and can be purchased online at https://www.thealmanacofamericanpolitics.com/ or by calling 1-888-265-0600. VTDigger readers can use the code “15AAP2022” for a 15% discount during check-out.
