With another Covid-19 surge in full swing, Vermonters have continued to raise concerns about breakthrough infections: cases among fully vaccinated people. But data on the vaccination status of people who have caught the virus remains hard to come by.
Readers have repeatedly asked VTDigger to report the vaccination status of daily new cases and hospitalizations, as well as more details on active outbreaks.
But the state has not made those data points public on a frequent basis. Limited statistics about breakthrough infections and outbreaks are currently published by the health department every two weeks, while analyses by the Department of Financial Regulation are made public at Gov. Phil Scott’s press conference every Tuesday.
Health officials have pointed to logistical challenges to more frequent reporting and said that in certain categories, statistics on vaccination status would have limited value. Some experts argue that, as preventive measures are increasingly left to personal preference, more data could help individuals make decisions about how best to protect themselves.
Cases and hospitalizations
Health Commissioner Mark Levine said Tuesday that the recent focus on breakthrough cases is misplaced, suggesting that some are mistakenly interpreting those numbers as evidence that the vaccines are less effective than previously thought.
“If you look at news of the so-called breakthrough cases as a reason to not get vaccinated, take my reassurance that this is completely unjustified,” Levine said.
While the number of breakthrough cases has increased alongside the total number of cases, the rate of vaccinated people who have been infected has increased only slightly, remaining below one-tenth of a percent. Vaccinated people are also still protected against severe illness, Levine said.
Turner Osler, a research epidemiologist and emeritus professor at the University of Vermont Larner College of Medicine, said Wednesday that public interest in breakthrough data was legitimate.
“For folks to make informed decisions, knowing their personal risk is an important, if not paramount, consideration,” Osler said. “Yes, Covid for the vaccinated is a less lethal proposition, but I think we can make that part of [the] messaging.”
The recent rise in hospitalizations has also caused alarm. Levine said that, of the 24 people reported hospitalized on Tuesday, 75% were unvaccinated.
The health department is working to better track and report on the vaccination status of hospitalized people, Levine said, but the logistics are challenging. Individual hospitals have different reporting schedules, and the vaccination status of a person entering a hospital in distress might not be immediately available.
In an interview Wednesday, Josh White, the chief medical officer for Randolph-based Gifford Health Care, offered another reason that daily statistics on hospitalized people might be misleading: The numbers are too small.
Even with the recent uptick, Vermont hasn’t reported more than 30 hospitalizations in one day since February. That means just two or three new patients in a day could constitute a double-digit growth rate.
“You can very easily make those numbers look different than a real representation when a small number of individuals can make a huge difference in percentage,” White said.
Outbreaks
After the health department reported an outbreak among mostly unvaccinated youth at a summer camp in Waterbury last week, readers asked whether other youth settings had seen infections. (On request, the department confirmed that two outbreaks this summer have been associated with camps and three outbreaks have been associated with child care facilities.)
Outbreak data is also limited. The health department’s summary report every two weeks includes the total number of active outbreaks, as well as a running tally of cases in five types of settings throughout the entire pandemic.
A count of current outbreak cases by setting was sporadically provided last fall, but the state has not regularly shared that data since.
Data for specific types of settings has been inconsistent. The health department reports on cases and outbreaks in long-term care facilities in a monthly report. Data on K-12 schools, though not a full breakdown of in-school transmission, was published every other week through June 23. That report “may resume in the fall,” according to the health department website.
Levine said Tuesday that most current outbreaks are small, thanks to widespread vaccination, and they’re occurring in the same types of settings as in previous stages of the pandemic.
White, from Gifford Health Care, said sharing more outbreak data could help inform Vermonters’ decisions about personal behavior. If a certain type of activity appears to drive more infections, he said, “people will know — ‘Oh, that may be riskier than I appreciated. And I may or may not want to do that.’”
Osler, the research epidemiologist, concurred, adding that proactively sharing more data could help to curb misinformation and gossip.
“Bottom line: I think people who want information will find it,” he said. “If you make accurate information easily available, they will find accurate information, which will in the end work out better for all of us.”
Liora Engel-Smith contributed reporting.
