Updated at 6:05 p.m.
Vermont officials expect a significant rise in Covid cases, peaking in the next four to five weeks, members of Gov. Phil Scott’s administration said at a press conference Tuesday.
The projected increase comes amid a national surge in cases led by the more infectious Delta variant of the virus, which now appears to account for the majority of cases in Vermont, according to Department of Health data.
Vermont reported 282 cases in the past week, compared to 171 the week before and a low of 34 cases per week in late June. This latest weekly total is the highest since mid-May, but still far lower than the highest weekly total of 1,231 in early April.
Covid case rates are highest in Chittenden County, followed by Franklin, Orleans, Grand Isle and Bennington counties.
Despite that rise, hospitalizations remain low. The state has a seven-day average of 3.5 hospitalizations at any one time, roughly the same level it’s had for the past two months. The hospitalization rate peaked at nearly 30 in early April.
Two deaths were reported for the month of July, and the state predicts between 0 and 6 deaths in August.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention last week added Chittenden and Essex counties to its risk map, which indicates "substantial" spread of the virus. On Tuesday, it removed Essex from the list but added Bennington, Grand Isle, Franklin and Orleans counties. The CDC recommends the use of masks in indoor public settings in such counties.
Scott said the state’s low hospitalization rate was a reminder of why Vermont put mitigation measures in place back in the early phase of the pandemic.
“In March of 2020, we talked a lot about flattening the curve in order to protect our health care system. And we did it better than any other state,” Scott said. “Now, we have effective vaccines that are saving lives, and Vermonters stepped up and did the right thing by getting vaccinated.”
The median age of unvaccinated people recently infected is 30, said Mike Pieciak, the commissioner of financial regulation. He said that "makes sense since the younger population is much less vaccinated, but they're also much less likely to experience severe, severe illness.”
About 84% of eligible Vermonters have received at least one dose of the vaccine, and 75% are fully vaccinated. The state continues to be highest in the nation in its vaccination rate.
The state now reports that 93% of Vermonters 65 and older have gotten at least one dose of the vaccine, compared to 76% of Vermonters between 31 and 64 and 57% of Vermonters 12 to 30 years old.
Another 2,400 Vermonters have gotten their first dose of the vaccine in the past week, a 14% uptick in the pace of vaccinations compared to the previous week. The state continues to host pop-up vaccine clinics and offers vaccines at a broad range of pharmacies and health centers.
Recent data on a mass spreading event in Provincetown, Mass., shows that vaccinated people are more susceptible to getting Delta variant than other variants of the virus. But Health Commissioner Mark Levine pointed out that the cases among vaccinated people are “generally mild.”
“First, vaccinated people represent a very small amount of total transmission,” Levine said. “Second, and again, data shows that if you're vaccinated, you are well protected from the worst outcomes.”
He emphasized the spread of the Delta variant makes it even more important for unvaccinated people to get vaccinated.
“If you are not vaccinated, but could be, you're leaving yourself without protection to an often-serious illness that has actually killed 260 of our friends and loved ones,” Levine said. “People who are not vaccinated are the biggest drivers of virus spread, which allows for more mutations like the Delta variant.”
