Vermont reported 113 cases of Covid-19 Monday, in line with the average over the past few weeks.
The state’s numbers have slowly dropped from the peak they hit around Jan. 6, according to the latest Department of Health data.
The state’s test-positivity rate has gone down to 2%, another sign that the state has turned the corner on combating the virus. National and regional positivity rates and case numbers have also declined, according to analysis from the Department of Financial Regulation last week.
But even as case numbers decline, hospitalizations have remained stubbornly high. The state reported that 60 people are hospitalized with the virus as of Monday, one of the highest numbers since the start of the pandemic. Six people are in the ICU.
In fact, when cases peaked on Jan. 6, only 33 people were hospitalized with Covid. But hospitalizations hit a new high on Jan. 31, with 63 people in the hospital.
These hospitalization numbers are not totally unexpected. On Jan. 12, after it became clear Vermont was seeing a post-holiday surge, Department of Financial Regulation projections showed that the state would face increased hospital needs well into February — and could even surpass the state’s typical ICU capacity, although not its surge capacity.
And although Vermont’s case numbers have been lower than state officials predicted, hospitalizations are partly a reflection of new cases from weeks ago. The state reports that Vermont Covid patients are hospitalized for seven days, on average, but some stay for up to 43 days. It’s not clear if currently hospitalized patients are included in that data.
Data on how many people are newly admitted to the hospital over time is limited since the state itself does not report those numbers. One dataset from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services shows facility-level data, but hospitals report only the totals by week and don’t report them at all if the total is small.
However, the federal data indicates that the surge of cases in Bennington County has helped to drive up hospital numbers, as Southwestern Vermont Medical Center has admitted more patients in the past month than it did at any point since it began reporting Covid figures in July.
Bennington County’s cases are still only a fraction of the state total. The county has had 327 cases in the past two weeks, compared to 490 cases in Chittenden County, which has a much larger population.
But depending on the nuances of who is getting infected now in Bennington County, the county’s high case rate could continue to drive up hospitalizations even as the statewide numbers get lower and lower.
One bright spot is that deaths in Vermont have begun to plateau. The state reported a total of 175 deaths from Covid as of Monday, meaning that the state has had 12 deaths in the past two weeks. That’s compared to 38 deaths during the last two weeks of December.
On Tuesday, state officials reported that long-term care cases and deaths declined from December to January, a sign that the many outbreaks in those facilities are slowing down.
They did not attribute the decline directly to vaccinations, which are only one strategy to reduce cases in long-term care; others include testing, tracing and staff support from the state. But vaccinations have been completed at every skilled nursing facility, the most at-risk locations, and a large percentage of assisted living facilities.
Overall, 8.8% of Vermont residents 16 and over have received at least one dose of the vaccine. About 67,000 doses have been administered, with 33,600 people receiving one dose and 16,700 receiving two doses.
To register for a vaccine appointment or get information on walk-in clinics, visit healthvermont.gov/MyVaccine or call 855-722-7878.
You will be asked to provide your name, date of birth, address, email (if available), phone number, and health insurance information (if available, but not required).
