Vermont reported 106 cases of Covid Wednesday, another sign of the rising wave of the coronavirus after the holidays.
The latest numbers, in addition to the 166 cases Tuesday and 182 cases a few days before, have formed one of Vermont’s highest seven-day Covid averages over the course of the pandemic.
It’s now been 12 days since Christmas, enough time to begin to see the effects of the holiday and related social gatherings, but not enough time to show the full effects of the post-Christmas holiday and New Year’s celebrations.
Officials warned Tuesday that Vermont’s rising numbers are a part of the general trend across the Northeast of steep case increases. Quebec faces another lockdown because of rising cases, and the test positivity rate is rising in many states.
Vermont’s seven-day positivity rate is 2.8%, roughly in line with the average in the past few weeks. That is higher than the summer, when the rate often remained below 1%, but is lower than the 5% benchmark the state has for reopening metrics.
Chittenden County reported the most cases Wednesday, 32. Windsor County had 17 new cases; it’s been experiencing a rise in cases since the holidays.
Vermont reported three new deaths Wednesday, bringing the total to 152. In the latest wave of the pandemic, the vast majority of deaths have occurred at the state’s long-term care facilities.
Cases at long-term care facilities have begun to slow down, with 46 new cases reported in the past week, compared to 100 or more in the weeks before. But deaths may continue long after the outbreaks slow, since it can take time for severe symptoms of Covid to develop and for deaths to be added to state data.
The state reported 33 people were hospitalized for the virus, including six in the ICU.
When will we see the effects of the vaccine?
Vermont reported Tuesday that 17,657 people have had a first dose of the vaccine, or just above 3% of the target population — Vermonters age 16 and over.
However, it may be a while before those vaccinations translate to lower cases and deaths. For one thing, it’s unclear how much the vaccine affects the transmission of the virus, so its effects will be more visible on severe complications of Covid — hospitalizations and deaths — than it will on the total case count in the state.
But even then, the people who have been vaccinated don’t have full protection from the virus yet. The state has not yet given anyone a second dose of the vaccine, although officials said Tuesday that second doses will start soon.
The second dose is shown to provide immunity seven to 14 days after it’s administered, so Vermonters won’t start developing immunity until weeks from today.
Then it will take another few weeks to see the results in hospitalization and death data, because more severe complications from the virus take time.
The good news is that long-term care patients, the state’s main source of deaths, will be among the first to develop immunity — meaning that hospitalizations and deaths could drop rapidly among that population in the weeks ahead.
And long-term care staff members, who have been cited as a reason outbreaks develop in facilities, are also getting prioritized for the vaccine, so cases may also drop among patients because of those vaccinations.
