The newly elected members of Vermont’s Legislature met virtually for the first time Thursday, a few weeks before they begin a new legislative session that will be held remotely — at least for the month of January.
Lawmakers were briefed on the state’s dire financial outlook and discussed initial plans for conducting legislative business during the pandemic.
Tom Kavet, the Legislature’s economist, gave an overview of the state’s financial picture, and said revenues are performing 10% better — about $100 million higher — than fiscal analysts had expected for the current fiscal year, which began July 1.
Kavet has said state revenues are up because of federal aid totaling nearly $5 billion. The state has received pandemic financial relief from the CARES Act, emergency loans for businesses and spending on unemployment benefits.
“The reason that we’re ahead in revenues right now is because of the massive deficit spending that’s occurred,” Kavet said. “The total national deficit spending is likely to ultimately exceed that allocated for World War II.”
The state expects to lose millions of dollars because of the pandemic’s impact on sales taxes, rooms and meals taxes, and other levies that rely on consumer spending, plus major hits on transportation taxes and the education fund — even though revenues are now performing better than anticipated.
State officials had dramatically downgraded revenue forecasts in August, anticipating the state would lose nearly $300 million in tax receipts because of the pandemic.
Kavet also highlighted the “significant near-term uncertainty” about the economy in Vermont and the nation. It’s difficult to forecast what federal aid states can expect or the path that the virus could take, he said.
“Clearly the worst of this is not necessarily behind us,” Kavet said. “And I think that’s the major point with respect to the epidemiological path of this, and even with prospects for a vaccine looking good, there could be a lot of distress prior to that.”
The Covid-19 crisis and the economic fallout will cast a long shadow over the upcoming legislative session.
At the beginning of Thursday’s briefing, Senate President Pro Tem Tim Ashe, D/P Chittenden, said Vermont is going into the “second half” of the battle against the pandemic.
“The sort of halftime score is Vermont 1, Covid 0,” Ashe said. “So the information you’re going to get today is instrumental in helping keep Vermont ahead in this battle.”
Both the House and Senate plan to operate remotely during the first month of the legislative session, except for the first day, when the chambers need to swear in members and appoint new leaders.
Neither Ashe nor House Speaker Mitzi Johnson, D-South Hero, will return in January. Johnson lost her reelection bid and Ashe lost in the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor. The presumptive leaders of the House and Senate are Rep. Jill Krowinski, D-Burlington, and Sen. Becca Balint, D-Windham.
Earlier this year, lawmakers had hoped to begin in-person business during the upcoming session, with social distancing protocols in place. That idea isn’t entirely off the table. But when Covid-19 cases began to climb again in Vermont last month, prospects for in-person legislative work dimmed.
The speaker said Thursday the House Rules Committee will meet later this month to discuss plans, which are “still up for discussion,” to bring lawmakers back to the Statehouse for the first day of the session and again in February.
On Jan. 6, the House, which has 150 members, plans to meet at the Barre Municipal Auditorium, which can accommodate 238 people practicing social distancing requirements, plus 112 more in the basement. Not all members would be required to convene in the auditorium. The rules committee will give members the option to meet remotely.
The Senate plans to swear in its 30 members on Jan. 6 in the upper chamber of the Statehouse. Ashe said this would likely require lawmakers to enter the room in “shifts” to make sure it can be done safely.
Both chambers are also figuring out how the Legislature will conduct the Jan. 7 joint assembly for swearing in newly elected officials, including the governor, lieutenant governor and secretary of state.
The ceremony may be held in the House chamber as usual, but with limited in-person attendance.
“Joint Rules has been talking about how to maintain as much of the tradition as possible, in particular for the constitutional officers in the swearing-in, and striving to make sure that happens in the House chamber, even if the joint assembly is otherwise conducted in a remote manner,” Ashe told House and Senate lawmakers.
