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While the outbreak of Covid-19 in Winooski has reached a total of 84 confirmed cases, state officials say data is promising in the rest of Vermont.
At a press conference Friday, officials pointed to the success Vermont has had in containing the new outbreak and said that the rest of the state continues to have a low level of cases.
“Our northern New England neighbors of New Hampshire and Maine continue to see case growth that is far higher than Vermont,” said Michael Pieciak, commissioner of the Department of Financial Regulation, who has led the state’s modeling of the Covid-19 outbreak.
The state has had a higher number of cases in the past week than predicted by its most recent model, created on May 12. The outbreak marks the first time the number of Covid-19 cases has run above the state’s models.
Vermont reported 10 new cases on Friday, roughly in line with the average of the past week, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in the state since the beginning of the outbreak to 1,119. The state hasn’t had a new death since Memorial Day but reported two people with the virus were in the hospital.
State officials’ other metrics of Vermont’s recovery remain below the level of concern, according to the presentation from the state. The outbreak has had few hospitalizations, and ICUs remain below capacity.
Pieciak said testing at the outbreak center in Winooski and across the state remains high, meaning that the percentage of tests that are positive remains relatively low. Positivity rate is one of several indicators the state uses to determine whether it is testing enough people.
“Taken together, these metrics provide the best insight on our progress during restart,” he said. “We continue to watch them very closely, but they do not signal any troubling signs, as of today.”
The states around Vermont also show signs of progress. The recent case count of nearby states is 35% lower than last week, according to the presentation. Covid-19 cases continue to rise in states elsewhere in the country, particularly in the South, the Midwest and the Southwest.
Department of Health Commissioner Mark Levine said the outbreak continues to mostly affect younger Vermonters, with 40% of cases found in children. Only one in five cases had symptoms of Covid-19 and the outbreak has led to only one hospitalization.
He said the lower level of hospitalizations in recent weeks was a sign that the virus was absent in many communities, rather than an indication that doctors are doing a better job of treating it.
“Not only are the ICUs doing very well, which means of course no one’s on a ventilator, but our daily count of people in the hospital with a diagnosis of Covid is in the low single digits on any given day,” he said.
The state has recently made a change to one aspect of treatment: providing people who test positive for Covid-19 with an oximeter so they can measure their oxygen level from home.
A lingering concern with the virus is the strong disparity in Vermonters of color. Black, Asian and Hispanic Vermonters have a higher case rate than white Vermonters, a difference that has risen in recent weeks. Black and Asian Vermonters also have a higher hospitalization rate.
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