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It was never going to be easy for Democrats to beat Gov. Phil Scott in November.
The moderate Republican entered 2020 as a heavily favored incumbent, and one of the most popular governors in the country, boasting a 65% approval rating.
Since then, Scott, like other governors across the country, has led Vermont through the early stages of the Covid-19 crisis.
His management of the pandemic has so far earned praise from Republicans and Democrats alike, and a recent national U.S. survey found that 75% of 158 Vermonters polled approve of how Scott has handled the Covid-19 crisis — only 7% disapproved.
University of Virginia’s Center for Politics also recently changed its 2020 gubernatorial race rating for Vermont from “leaning Republican” to “likely Republican,” as it has taken incumbent governors’ Covid-19 response into account.
While many believed Scott was already well-positioned to win a third term in November, some say his response to the pandemic will only bolster his advantage.
“I think an already strong candidate has become stronger,” said Matthew Dickinson, a professor of political science at Middlebury College.
“He is in charge of handling the crisis and sucks the oxygen out of the give and take that is characteristic of a gubernatorial race,” Dickinson said.
But with months until the general election, Democrats, who for the most part have refrained from criticizing Scott’s Covid-19 response, are still hopeful they will be able to take back the governor’s office.
“We don’t know what is going to happen with Covid-19. There is so much uncertainty,” said former education secretary, Rebecca Holcombe, a Democrat vying for the party’s gubernatorial nomination.
“No one should be pretending to know what is going to happen in November,” she said.
Holcombe gives Scott credit for how he has handled the novel coronavirus outbreak and that she and the other candidates have been reluctant to criticize the governor as the state has come together to combat the pandemic.
“In that crisis when you’re in the moment of an emergency everyone else has to stand down because there can only be one leader — it was the right thing to stand back and let him lead,” she said.
But now, Holcombe believes it is time to begin discussing policy to make Vermont stronger as it moves beyond curbing the spread of the virus and begins to address the economic fallout. She said this includes making paid family leave a reality and making sure there is broadband throughout the state.
“We’ve coped with the immediate crisis and now it’s time to look forward,” Holcombe said.
While Scott has been lauded for his handling of the pandemic, his administration has recently come under fire for a backlog of unemployment claims and a reluctance to approve mail-in voting for the general election.
Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman, a Progressive/Democrat who is also seeking the governor’s office in 2020, said that it is premature to make assumptions about how Covid-19 will impact the election.
The lieutenant governor said that overall Scott has done an “admirable” job handling the pandemic, except for the overwhelmed unemployment system that has delayed benefits from reaching Vermonters.
“I know that my office has had countless calls of people incredibly upset about the handling of the unemployment situation and their inability to put food on their table and pay their bills,” Zuckerman said.
“Some of those folks have said ‘Up until this point I was all in for the governor,’” Zuckerman said.
While Democrats have been campaigning for months, the first debate, held virtually, between Zuckerman, Holcombe and political newcomer Patrick Winburn is scheduled to take place Monday, May 11 — giving the candidates an opportunity to challenge one another face to face.
Meanwhile, Scott has refused to detail his reelection plans, even as he faces a primary challenger — Republican John Klar, who is running as an Agri-publican.
Earlier this year, Scott had said he would announce his intentions in May — after the end of the legislative session. But now that timeline is out the window as he has turned his attention exclusively to dealing with the state’s response to the coronavirus.
“It’s probably been the last thing on my mind — I got a lot on my plate as you might imagine these days and so that that hasn’t been something that I’ve been considering,” Scott said during a May 1 press briefing.
But for months, Democrats and Republicans have operated under the assumption that he will run again. Last week a digital ad created by the Republican Governors’ Association (RGA) began to run on Facebook — the latest evidence signaling a likely run.
Scott, however, will have to make the decision in the coming weeks as major party candidates must register with the Vermont Secretary of State’s office by May 28 to participate in the Aug. 11 primary election.
Even before the crisis, Scott’s odds looked good. In a VPR-Vermont PBS poll in February, the incumbent governor held a strong lead over Holcombe and Zuckerman.
Longtime political observers believe that Scott is likely to dominate in November and that candidates with low name recognition, will not fare well in the Covid-19 political landscape.
“It favors the incumbent and the well known,” said Eric Davis, professor emeritus of political science at Middlebury College.
“The challenge for Dave Zuckerman, and Rebecca Holcombe, is they have to convince voters to replace the administration — that has relatively done a good job of dealing with the virus —in the middle of the crisis,” he said.
“There’s no doubt that there’s an incumbency advantage in a time of crisis,” Zuckerman said.
“But it’s our job as candidates to point out both the issues of moment, but also the underlying societal challenges that had not been addressed going into this that have exacerbated the impact on many Vermont families.”
Zuckerman declined to detail what those unaddressed challenges are, noting that typically “electioneering” in Vermont doesn’t begin until summer and fall, after the Legislature has adjourned.
“Right now is not the time to be making those arguments,” he said.
While Zuckerman and Holcombe say they are both effectively making that case Vermonters, not all Democrats are convinced that either candidate can beat Scott come November — particularly given his handling of the crisis.
A Democratic insider said Scott should coast to reelection unless problems persist with Vermonters receiving unemployment benefits.
“Other than that, he could get elected as many times as he wants to after this,” he said, adding that Scott could easily receive 60% of the vote against the current Democratic field.
Former Gov. Jim Douglas, a Republican, also believes that Scott will easily cruise to victory on Nov. 3 because of his effective management of the pandemic.
“He’s doing an outstanding job and I think Vermonters will show their appreciation for that leadership, and he’ll want to see it through,” Douglas said.
Douglas pointed to the 1920s, when then-governor John Weeks became the first in the state’s history to seek a second two-year term.
In 1927, Vermont saw a major flood that destroyed bridges, roads and other infrastructure and killed about 80 people — including Lt. Gov. Hollister Jackson. That election year Weeks argued he needed a second term to help the state recover from the crisis.
Douglas believes that Scott will also feel the responsibility to continue to shepherd the state through the Covid-19 pandemic, and that voters will support him in November.
“I think leadership during a crisis does in fact rally the electorate, and I think we’ll see that this year.”
Sen. Anthony Pollina, P/D-Washington, the chair of Progressive Party and a former candidate for governor who ran against Douglas in 2008, disagrees with that assessment.
Pollina says Scott may have the advantage now, but once the public starts paying attention to the 2020 elections, and the state begins to lift social distancing measures, that may change.
“I think it’s reasonable to presume that at this point in time there’s a benefit to the governor because he’s in the public eye as much as he is,” Pollina said.
Scott has been holding press conferences, many lasting as long as two hours, three times a week on the crisis.
“I’m not so sure that translates into winning the election though, as time goes on,” Pollina said.
Pollina said that Democratic candidates can argue that Scott failed to adequately prepare the state for the economic downturn by opposing paid family leave policy and inadequately funding the Vermont State Colleges.
“He’s responsible for the day to day handling of the crisis, but he’s also partly responsible for the lack of an adequate safety net and supports for a lot of families around the state,” Pollina said.
After weeks of putting politics on the back burner during the crisis and as Scott begins to reopen the state, Democrats have become more willing to criticize the governor.
After Scott said Monday that he had concerns with expanding the state’s mail-in voting system for the general election, candidates and the Vermont Democratic Party chided the governor for potentially putting voters’ health at risk, and getting in the way of the Democratic secretary of state’s proposal.
Holcombe immediately released a statement calling on Scott to “not stand in the way of free, fair, and accessible elections” and Zuckerman quickly followed up with an email to supporters asking them to sign a petition demanding the governor support the secretary of state’s plan.
On Wednesday, the Vermont Democratic Party announced it was beginning a five-figure digital ad campaign highlighting Scott’s resistance to the vote-by-mail expansion.
Chris Di Mezzo, the VDP spokesperson, then took to Twitter to criticize Scott’s May 6 decision to allow Vermonters to leave their homes for gatherings of 10 or fewer people, as well as reopening parks and outdoor recreation areas across the state.
“This is irresponsible, misguided and will put the lives of Vermonters at risk.” he tweeted. “There will be a second wave of #COVID19 and these premature reopening guidelines will accelerate the rate of infection.”
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