Nine months before the general election, Republican Gov. Phil Scott leads his only announced Democratic rivals by more than 20% in head to head contests, according to the VPR-Vermont PBS 2020 poll.
Scott enjoys substantial leads in overall support, name recognition and favorability among both Democrats and Republicans compared with his two gubernatorial challengers.
If the November election was held today, Scott would receive 52% of the vote to Progressive/Democrat Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman’s 29%, according to the poll.
If the governor’s opponent is former education Secretary Rebecca Holcombe, the margin of victory would be even steeper, with 55% of the 600 Vermonters polled saying they would support the governor, while 20% said they would vote for Holcombe.
In a race between Scott and Zuckerman, 15% of voters said they did not know who they would support; between Holcombe and the governor 22% said they were undecided.
In 2018, Scott won reelection with 55.4% of the vote, besting Democratic challenger Christine Hallquist, a former utility executive, who received 40%.
Scott, who has consistently been rated as one of the most popular governors in the country, has an approval rating of 57%, with a 26% disapproval rating.
More Democrats than GOP voters approve of the job Scott is doing, with the Republican governor receiving an approval rating of 58% from Democrats while only 54% of Republicans polled approve of Scott’s performance.
In a statement, Rebecca Kelley, a spokesperson for the governor, said the numbers demonstrate that Vermonters support Scott’s approach to dealing with the state’s most pressing issues.
“As he travels across Vermont, he hears about the struggles to find and keep workers, the need for Montpelier to focus on growing the economy and making Vermont more affordable, and he sees firsthand the growing regional inequity from county to county,” Kelley said.
“He will continue to focus his work on addressing these challenges – which includes working to make these issues a priority in the Legislature – for Vermonters in every corner of the state,” she added.
Eric Davis, professor emeritus of political science at Middlebury College, said Scott’s popularity among Democrats may be an insurmountable obstacle for Zuckerman or Holcombe in a general election.
“If more than half of the other party thinks you are doing a good job, that is something difficult for a challenger to overcome,” Davis said.
Zuckerman, however, said Democrats’ willingness to support Scott could offer him an unique opportunity to gain back their votes as the election cycle continues.
Zuckerman said Scott’s decision to veto bills that would raise the minimum wage to $12.55 and create an involuntary paid family leave program, show that Scott is out of step with what most Vermonters want.
According to the poll, 41% of Vermonters support the wage increase and 56% favor instituting a paid family leave program.
“Some of the issues the governor has taken veto measures on, and not led on, are broadly supported,” Zuckerman said in an interview. “As the campaign gets going and we can discuss his actions, I think a lot of Democrats, who have supported him in the past, will come home.”
Zuckerman, who has 79% name recognition, added he is confident as the election nears he will be able to whittle away Scott’s lead in their head to head to contest, saying they will both be vying for the 50% threshold by November.
“When you look at the name recognition and the issues, it shows real potential to bring him below 50%,” Zuckerman said. “People pay more attention in the last few months before an election and when that happens the choice will be clear and we will get him below 50% and we will be above it.”
While it will be an uphill battle for Zuckerman to put that type of dent into the support for the incumbent governor, for Holcombe — who has a favorability rating of 16%, but with only 39% name recognition — the challenge is even more extreme.
“The first thing is, Rebecca Holcombe is unknown to more people than are able to rate her,” Davis said. “Her biggest challenge is to get known.”
Cameron Russell, Holcombe’s campaign manager, said the campaign is “excited” by the poll results and by the work that has to be done to make its case to Vermonters why the former education secretary should be the Demcoratic gubernatorial nominee.
“It definitely shows that as far as the issues go, Phil Scott is out of touch with where most Vermonters are,” Russell said.
“Vermonters aren’t yet doing their homework on the gubernatorial race. So to be where we are now is encouraging,” he added. “Rebecca is in the race because Phil Scott is out of step with where Vermont is.”
But while Russell was quick to contrast Holcombe with Scott, he was not looking past Zuckerman in the Democratic primary, and said he was pleased to see how Holcombe fared against the Progressive/Democrat who has been in Vermont politics for more than 20 years and has held statewide office.
“We are thrilled where we are right now,” Russell said. “There is no question we are going to be competitive in the primary.”
The primaries for statewide offices are in August.
However, Davis said judging by the poll, Zuckerman is currently the candidate with the best chance of taking on Scott in the general election.
“I think Zuckerman, as the better known candidate, as someone who has been around longer, he has an advantage going into the primary. That’s not to say it’s open-and-shut,” Davis said. “If she has raised enough money, it could be quite competitive.”
“Zuckerman’s best shot is to hope Bernie Sanders is the presidential nominee and he can hang on to his coat tails,” he added.
