[N]ew research out Tuesday from the Vermont Student Assistance Corp. shows 34 percent of Vermont’s class of 2012 received a college degree within four years of graduating high school.
The newly released data is part of a longitudinal study the nonprofit has been conducting to follow about 5,900 Vermonters who graduated in 2012, a sample that represents about 85 percent of high school graduates from that year.
This week’s research is the third in the series looking at the class’ post-secondary outcomes, and earlier research conducted by VSAC on the cohort echoed this week’s findings – namely, that there are stark disparities in outcomes based on gender, academic preparation, parental education, and geography. Researchers used data from a student survey and the National Student Clearinghouse. A fourth study is expected in 2019.
First generation males – boys whose parents did not go to college – did the worst, with only 16 percent getting a degree in the four years following graduation, according to VSAC’s most recent study. Second-generation females did the best – 54 percent went on to get a degree in four years. Overall, 24 percent of first-generation graduates got a degree in four years, while 46 percent of second-generation graduates attained a degree within that time period.
“That’s shocking for me. I think we’re in danger of leaving our first generation students behind, from a post-secondary education perspective,” VSAC research analyst Robert Walsh told Vermont educational leaders at a summit held at the nonprofit’s headquarters in Winooski on Tuesday.
The research only pertains to two- and four-year degrees and doesn’t include information on credential programs. That’s because National Clearinghouse data on such programs isn’t reliable yet, VSAC research director Wanda Arce said.
“We’re probably understating the level of attainment slightly,” Arce told the summit’s audience.
It’s also important to note that 15 percent of 2012’s high school grads were still enrolled in college when the latest study was conducted, and might still get a degree.
The research noted some successes. Of those graduates who did enroll in college full time immediately after high school, 60 percent completed a degree in four years, 13 points higher than the national average.
But the bulk of the study and Tuesday’s presentations focused on disparities in outcomes.
Students who transferred or who left school to re-enroll later were much less likely to get a degree within four years, the study found. Eighty-four percent of students who stayed continuously enrolled at the same school attained a degree within four years. Fifty-four percent of students who transferred received a degree in four years, and just 14 percent of students who took a break for at least one semester did the same.
VSAC’s study also suggests academic preparation plays a key role. Completing Algebra II or an Advanced Placement course and graduating with an A average were all correlated with better outcomes. Sixty-one percent of those students who enrolled in a four-year school after graduation who completed Algebra II in high school got a degree within four years; only 30 percent of those who didn’t complete the math course got a degree within the same time frame.
Kirstin Boehm, VSAC’s director of career and educational outreach, shared data about the nonprofit’s one-on-one counseling with at-risk middle and high school students that showed substantially improved outcomes.
“Socio-economic status doesn’t have to determine destiny for these students,” she said. But Boehm said the program’s success was likely predicated on a difficult-to-scale model: a counselor following the same student from seventh-grade through the first year of college.
Southern Vermont University President David Evans shared strategies with the group about how to get vulnerable students across the finish line. But he argued that a key hurdle was that disadvantaged and struggling students inevitably end up at schools with the least amount of resources.
VSAC’s study included granular information about how academically prepared students are by type of college they attend. Students who started at one of the Vermont state colleges, for example, were the least likely to report completing Algebra II or graduating with an A average in high school.
“The farther down the preparation scale you go, the more expensive they are to deal with. And the problem is that the best students also go to the richest institutions,” Evans said.