That’s how the state’s senior political analyst described the 2016 race for Vermont governor, a contest that has pitted a popular Republican lieutenant governor against an energetic Democratic technocrat who held several posts in the Shumlin administration.
More than a year and $12 million later, after dozens of forums and debates, thousands of television commercials, two hard-fought primaries and a spirited general election campaign, voters head to the polls Tuesday to decide between Republican Phil Scott and Democrat Sue Minter to conclude the most expensive governor’s race by far in state history.
Also on the ballot is Liberty Union Party candidate Bill “Spaceman” Lee, whose campaign full of bizarre comments may draw just enough support to force the Legislature to decide the race if neither Minter nor Scott reaches 50 percent.
Eric Davis, a retired Middlebury College political science professor who has analyzed Vermont elections for five decades, said Friday the race is one of the tightest he remembers.
“My sense is that it’s one of those that really is too close to call,” Davis said.
The race, he said, began with Scott holding an on-paper edge because of his popularity, but about a month ago, Davis said, Minter seemed to pick up momentum, particularly after Sen. Bernie Sanders endorsed her, finally, in mid-October.
Key questions include whether Scott’s popularity — he races cars at Thunder Road and scored the highest rating for a statewide candidate in name recognition and approval combined — can outweigh the gravitational pull toward Minter because of Vermont’s heavily left-leaning electorate.
Will Minter’s more specific proposals, including plans for downtown revitalization and workforce development, as well as boosting college attendance, appeal more to voters than Scott’s more general call to hold down spending and make the state a more affordable place to live? Will Minter be dragged down being tied to an unpopular Shumlin, who was nonexistent on the campaign trail.
Will Vermonters follow the trend since Phil Hoff was elected in 1962 of alternating between a Democrat and Republican in the governor’s chair? Will Vermonters want Scott to balance a large majority of Democrats in the Legislature, or will he be seen as a caretaker who will not be able to get anything passed? (Or be able to stop what the Democrats want if the Republicans don’t hold the 53 seats they currently hold in the 150-member House to sustain a gubernatorial veto. In the Senate, the Democrats hold a 21-9 edge.
What hot-button issues raised in the campaign might resonate with voters: gun control, wind power development and abortion rights, just to name a few? Or, as the polls suggest — and both candidates have argued, Scott in particular — are the financial challenges many Vermonters face the paramount concern? Do Vermonters want to see new programs like those Minter has proposed or pull back on the reins of new ideas as Scott has suggested?
If politics is personal, will voters favor the Harvard-educated Minter, a fired-up Waterbury soccer mom raised outside Philadelphia, a policy wonk and self-described “problem solver” who served six years in the House before leading the Tropical Storm Irene recovery effort and running the Transportation Agency? Or will they be drawn to Scott, a Barre native and University of Vermont graduate who co-owns a construction company and has served in Montpelier for 16 years — including 10 as a state senator and six as lieutenant governor — and whom even opponents describe as personable and “a great guy”?
Douglas won about 40 percent support from those who voted for Democratic presidential nominees John Kerry in 2004 and Barack Obama in 2008 in relatively easy re-election victories when he ran in presidential election years. Douglas served from 2003 to 2011.
Davis said Scott has to win at least 25 percent support from voters who don’t back Donald Trump — those pulling the lever for Hillary Clinton, Libertarian Gary Johnson or the Green Party’s Jill Stein. The pundit predicts Trump will get about 35 percent of the vote in Vermont and 55 percent will go for Clinton, with 10 percent for the rest.
“I think it’s an open question whether Scott can get the roughly quarter of the non-Trump vote or whether they stick with the party and vote for Minter,” Davis said.
Team Scott thinks it needs 160,000 votes to win. In 2012, the last presidential election year, Gov. Peter Shumlin racked up more than 170,000 votes in an easy victory over Republican Randy Brock.
If Minter wins, Davis said, it will likely be because of a big turnout; a boost from being endorsed and campaigning side-by-side with the state’s most popular politician, Sanders; as well as support from Progressives who will be drawn to the polls to vote for Sen. David Zuckerman for lieutenant governor.
The secretary of state’s office reports a record number of Vermonters, more than 465,000, are registered to vote. Turnout in presidential election years in Vermont is typically 65 to 72 percent, according to Secretary of State Jim Condos.
Minter may also benefit from a Democratic Party organization that has more money and staff and a better ground game than its Republican counterpart, Davis said.
A poll by Vermont Public Radio three weeks ago had the race a dead heat. The following week, WCAX-TV had Scott up by 7 points. An analysis in the VPR poll showed that if the economy was the primary concern, voters had more faith in Scott. When it came to issues including education and the environment, Minter scored higher.
Both candidates said in interviews Friday that they are confident of victory, proud of the race they ran, and ready for it to be over after more than a year crisscrossing the state.
“It’s been quite a year,” Scott said. “At times it seemed so far up in the future. With three days left, it’s hard to believe it’s wrapping up.” The most demanding part was “going 24/7,” but Scott said he paced himself.
“I always thought it was going to be a long, close race,” he said.
“It’s been a journey and an evolution for me and a great experience,” she said.
“As I sometimes feel the burden of these challenges we face, I continue to be inspired by some of the people who I meet who are stepping up to the challenges.”
Both candidates are early risers and tireless campaigners. Minter, 55, said she tried to get in a run while it was still dark in the morning as often as possible. Scott, 58, reported getting up 4:30 a.m. and going to bed at 11 p.m. throughout the campaign, a practice he said he’s followed for decades as a small business owner.
Pleased overall, Scott and Minter both acknowledged mistakes. Political analyst Davis said Minter improved significantly as a public speaker after a rocky start. (He moderated one of the first forums.) At times, particularly early on, one supporter said, her answers were too long and sounded too much like a policy wonk.
For his part, Scott said he had to learn to be clearer and more careful in his answers after his Republican primary opponent, Bruce Lisman, tagged him as a supporter of a mileage tax based on a comment Scott said was taken out of context.
One source wondered if Scott should have spent more on advertisements in local newspapers and on radio and less on television.
Scott has also largely campaigned alone. Last week Brock, way behind in the polls in his race for lieutenant governor, joined Scott on the trail. Meanwhile, Minter has toured the state — including this weekend — with the Democratic statewide slate, which Davis said he expects to cruise to victory. It includes Zuckerman, attorney general candidate TJ Donovan, Secretary of State Jim Condos and Auditor Doug Hoffer, not to mention Sen. Patrick Leahy and Rep. Peter Welch.
Sanders, who has joined the Democratic Party bus tour, is campaigning this weekend for Clinton.
Scott, Davis said, is the Republicans’ only hope for winning a statewide office. Scott portrayed the phalanx of Democrats embracing Minter, including President Barack Obama, as “daunting” and with a verbal wink exaggerated the support as “almost like David versus Goliath.”
Both Scott and Minter also acknowledged they suffered low points in the campaign. Scott said agreeing to sell his half of DuBois Construction if he wins the race, though “the right thing to do,” was a hard decision to make. Lisman, who spent almost $2 million of his own money, pounded Scott in television ads for having a conflict of interest because of DuBois’ work for the state. During the general election, Minter and the Democrats continued to press the issue.
Minter brought up the challenge of campaigning hard and staying focused while grieving for five central Vermont students killed in a horrific crash on Interstate 89. Four of those killed were in her son’s class at Harwood Union High School, one a close family friend. One debate was postponed so the candidates could attend a vigil.
Observers said Minter seemed off her game during a statewide debate on WCAX a week after the deaths, a debate where Team Scott said its candidate hit his stride after some earlier less-than-impressive and uninspiring performances. That included Scott’s heavily criticized decision to turn down an invitation to debate at the Tunbridge World’s Fair on WDEV radio because Lee, a former Red Sox pitcher running a vanity campaign, wasn’t invited. Scott claimed he wanted Lee’s lack of views exposed; some observers thought Scott was trying to dilute the debate and avoid going head-to-head with Minter.
Lee registered 2 percent in the VPR poll and about 4 percent in the WCAX poll.
What many may remember most, according to Davis and others, was the barrage of television ads paid for by groups outside Vermont, particularly the governors associations connected to the two major parties, which ran largely negative ads that sometimes misrepresented a candidate’s positions.
According to campaign finance reports, spending by outside groups exceeded $5 million, with A Stronger Vermont, a pro-Scott PAC funded largely by the Republican Governors Association, spending $2.9 million, mostly on ads. The Democratic Governors Association-backed PAC Our Vermont spent $1.4 million, according to reports on file with the secretary of state. A PAC funded by Planned Parenthood spent more than $440,000 television ads and mass mailings targeting Scott, who is pro-choice while favoring parental notification and a ban on certain late-term procedures.
All of the candidates, in the primary and general election, spent more than $7 million combined, according to the campaign reports filed. In addition to Scott and Minter’s combined $3.5 million, Lisman spent $2.1 million, and Democrats Matt Dunne and Peter Galbraith spent about $1 million and $400,000, respectively.
Overall, Minter raised $2 million and Scott about $1.5 million, breaking the record of $2.9 million Shumlin and Republican Brian Dubie combined to spend in 2010, the last time the governor’s seat was vacant.
“I don’t think either candidate can claim that they didn’t have enough money to get their message across,” Davis said.
The veteran analyst said the national presidential campaign was the “craziest” he had seen because of “the Trump phenomenon” and was dominated by “nasty” name-calling and devoid of discussion about real issues.
By contrast, even with the negative outside advertisements, Davis said Vermonters were fortunate. The outside political action committees are not allowed to coordinate with the campaigns. Both Minter’s and Scott’s campaigns said they could do nothing to stop them but clearly benefited from the seeds of doubt the repeated advertisements sowed with a public that perhaps didn’t know the ads were not from the candidates themselves.
“I think both of them have run good campaigns in the sense of articulating their views and talking about themselves, spending a lot of time with voters, raising enough money to get their message across. I wouldn’t fault either of them for not running a good campaign,” Davis said.
“Vermonters came out well,” he said, “compared to the national campaign.”
