But Rodrigue, a public health researcher and half-marathon runner who describes herself as fiercely competitive, went ahead. Since announcing her bid, she says, she’s knocked on doors and met with selectboards in all 27 towns in Rutland County — the second largest by area in the state. She’s outraised her three Republican opponents combined and received endorsements from important local officials, including former Rutland City Police Chief Jim Baker.
“It’s exciting,” Rodrigue said. “I think I stand a really great shot, and we’ll see how the cards fall.”
Rodrigue is one of three Democrats hoping to make inroads in this solidly Republican county. The other two are Scott Garren and Cheryl Hooker, who served in the House and one term in the Senate in the 1990s. According to Hooker, it was her vote in favor of civil unions in 2000 that ultimately cost her, and four other Democrats from Rutland City, their House seats.
“Rutland City has always been primarily Republican,” Hooker said. “But there are some pockets of progressive Democrats.”
Garren, who retired and moved from Boston to Vermont 13 years ago, said he was inspired by Bernie Sanders and has been campaigning on a similar platform. But as Hooker acknowledged, “It’s an uphill battle to run against incumbents.”
It’s no secret that Rutland is a Republican stronghold. Sens. Peg Flory and Kevin Mullin have served three and seven terms, respectively. Before joining the Senate, both were longtime members of the House. Brian Collamore, a well-known radio host who has a show every morning on Rutland station WSYB, is running for his second term.
FCC rules prohibit Collamore from appearing on the radio once he’s declared his candidacy, but he acknowledges that the platform has given him a decisive advantage in a large, unevenly populated county. (Collamore does have the option of staying on air as a candidate but if he did so the station would have to provide equal airtime to his opponents if they filed a formal request, according to Jim Condon, executive director of the Vermont Association of Broadcasters.)
“I do recognize that I come with the benefit of having spent 45 years in radio,” said Collamore, who graduated from Middlebury College in 1972. “It’s a built-in advantage.”
In 2014, Collamore unseated Democrat Eldred French in a race that he says bears some similarities to this year’s campaign. French had been appointed to fill the seat vacated by Bill Carris who stepped down due to health reasons in 2012. Carris is the last Democrat to win a Senate seat in Rutland County in the last 15 years.
Like the 2014 race there are seven candidates this year. In addition to the six major party candidates, Richard Lenchus, an architect in Benson, is running as an independent.
Of the Democrats, Rodrigue has campaigned longer and more aggressively than the others, amassing a sizable war chest for a county level race. According to the latest financial disclosure filings Rodrigue has raised more than $24,000 and says she expects to top $30,000 before Election Day. Much of that has been poured into a direct mailing campaign and radio and newspaper ads in the final weeks of the campaign.
“She has run a textbook campaign,” said Mullin.
Even with a solid ground game, Rodrigue faces a formidable challenge, according to Eric Davis, professor emeritus of political science at Middlebury College.
“Her best hope would be a strong Democratic wave that washes one of the Republican incumbents away, so to speak,” Davis said.
Yet that wave is much more likely to occur in places like Chittenden and Windham County than in Rutland County, he said. Davis also pointed out that at the local level, the party will be working to defend the only three Democrats remaining in the House delegation — Dave Potter, Stephen Carr, and Robin Chesnut-Tangerman. Republicans, he said, are targeting those seats.
Davis said the most likely outcome is the re-election of the three Republican incumbents.
The Republicans have been making the rounds as well, actively campaigning since mid-summer. Flory said she’d hit most, if not all, 27 towns at least once or twice. “You eat your way around the county,” Flory said, attending church and fire department suppers.
The Republican delegation is also more unified both on policy and outreach. They coordinate ad campaigns and often appear together at community events or other forums.
However Mullin acknowledged that the ad market has become increasingly splintered in recent years and part of the challenge is figuring out how to reach voters. “It’s not like the old days where you had one newspaper there every day,” Mullin said. None of the Republican candidates have much of a presence online or on social media.
Rodrigue’s path to victory may depend less on a Democratic wave than convincing Republican voters to cross the aisle. According to Rodrigue, part of her appeal lies in the fact that she’s a moderate Democrat who leans right on economic issues and more to the left on social policy.
“I’m not a huge party person even though I’m running as a moderate Democrat,” Rodrigue said.
Whatever her party loyalties, however, Rodrigue’s greatest challenge may be overcoming the hurdle most first time candidates face: Very few people know who they are.
“When I talk to people, they don’t know she is,” Mullin said. “They just don’t know her.”
According to Rodrigue, when they first started phone banking she had very poor name recognition. She was better known in the city because of her role in launching Project Vision but was little known in the outlying towns. However, in the last month, Rodrigue says that has begun to change. “Almost every single call I make,” Rodrigue said, “people tell me I know you and why you’re running.”
Even if voters have heard of the Democratic candidates, they may be less certain of where they stand on the issues. This year has been notable in that there haven’t been any Senate candidate forums or debates. In past years, Castleton University, PEG TV, or one of the local high schools has hosted a debate. Mullin remembers attending six or more debates in most years.
“We’ve talked to a variety of people and nobody seems interested,” said Flory.
“Without having any debates, we have no clue what her [Rodrigue’s] real positions are,” said Mullin. “She’s never had to take a position. We take positions all the time.”
Rutland Mayor Chris Louras says the absence of any sort of candidate forum is surprising and unfortunate.
“It’s highly unusual that there were no debates,” said Louras, who is not endorsing candidates in the Senate race. “People are really voting in a vacuum.”
Still, according to Louras, the city has seen a strong surge in early voting and continued registration. As of last week, more than 1,200 ballots had been cast, about 12 percent of the city’s eligible voters. That figure is up markedly from the same time in 2012, the last presidential election year, when only 644 absentee ballots had been cast. In addition, at least 258 new voters in Rutland City have registered to vote since Oct. 1.
Mullin said he didn’t have a good sense of the Democrats’ positions on tax policy, the 2nd amendment, renewable energy citing, or aspects of Act 250 that he feels have hampered economic development in the Rutland area. Mullin is particularly concerned with the way provision 9L has made it more difficult for new businesses like car dealerships and big box stores to open up along Route 7 in Rutland Town. Earlier this year BJ’s Wholesale Club withdrew its Act 250 application after nearly three years of public hearings and litigation with the Diamond Run Mall.
“We’ve got to grow the economy and stop spending more than we’re taking in,” said Flory.
Mullin and his colleagues say they will not support an expansion of the sales tax to include services currently exempt or a state or regional carbon tax.
“I will not support a so-called carbon tax,” Collamore said. “I don’t think it’s a good policy.”
Mullin said he was “deadly opposed” to a carbon tax and would fight any efforts to implement one in the state.
Rodrigue has run largely on her record as one of the founders of Project Vision, the community policing initiative widely credited with reducing drug-related crime in Rutland. A public health researcher, she has spent much of her career studying new ways of addressing drug treatment and addiction.
Project Vision, launched in 2012, has been celebrated with good reason — drug-related crime in Rutland is down — but Flory points out that efforts to combat drug addiction began years before. As a member of the House, Flory was part of the committee that established drug courts — a pre-trial system that offers drug offenders the option of treatment instead of going to jail. The state has also invested in prescription drug monitoring and treatment support groups.
“We all support Project Vision which has worked well for the city,” Flory said, “but this is a county wide problem. We need to go further and make sure we’re addressing it not just as a city issue but at the county and state level as well.”
Rodrigue says her public health background would suit her well in the Senate and that she would take a data driven approach to tax policy and other issues.
On raising the minimum wage to $15, for example, a policy that both Cheryl Hooker and Scott Garren enthusiastically support, Rodrigue said she’d have to take a close look at whether such a move would increase the deficit.
“I’m not irresponsible,” Rodrigue said. “I won’t say yes to something not knowing exactly what the budget is, what we can and cannot afford to do.” Garren on the other hand supports raising the minimum wage to $15 by 2020, universal health care, and paid family leave.
Rodrigue said she wouldn’t favor a carbon tax because of its potential impact on small business owners and residents in Rutland County.
Her Democratic colleagues are more sympathetic to a carbon tax at the regional or national level. “Clearly at a national or international level a carbon tax is exactly the right thing to do to harness the energy of the market to solve the emissions problem,” said Garren. However, Garren added that he would have to take a close look at any statewide policy to be sure it wasn’t a regressive tax on the average Vermonter and that it didn’t unfairly burden small farmers.
Hooker said it wouldn’t be good statewide policy but that she would support a national or regional carbon pollution tax. She also said she wouldn’t support anything that isn’t revenue neutral.
Rodrigue said the state needs to take a multifaceted approach to economic development, but was vague on specifics. She pointed to the Vermont Futures Project and the recent work of the Rutland Economic Development Corporation as two models she would support. Even on refugee resettlement, which Rodrigue supports, she said initially she wanted more information about the program before drawing conclusions, a position not unlike her Republican opponents. Hooker, who is involved in Rutland Welcomes, a group that has organized in support of resettlement, and Garren have both embraced the program as part of their campaigns.
“It is something I think we really need to face and talk about and hopefully alleviate fears people have of change,” Hooker said.
“The Rutland Welcomes movement has definitely energized forward looking people who see opportunities and not just problems,” Garren added.
Hooker also faulted the Republican delegation for not being more actively involved in the refugee resettlement debate.
“I think they could’ve taken more of a leadership role,” Hooker said. Like Phil Scott, the GOP candidate for governor, Republican candidates in Rutland County have been critical of the decision-making process led by Mayor Chris Lours, but are generally supportive of the resettlement program.
Even on guns the Democratic candidates have some differences. Garren says there should be more restrictions on gun purchases and that even though there is a culture of responsible gun ownership in the state, firearms are still a leading cause of death in domestic violence related homicides and cases of suicide.
Rodrigue however is less certain that imposing more restrictions would solve the problem. She notes that her husband, a native of Vermont, is a gun owner and that she’s gone to shooting ranges herself. She says she’s had conversations with Republican gunsmiths in Rutland and has mixed feelings on the question of expanding background checks, but believes a closer look at the issue of mental health and gun ownership is necessary.
“In some ways the root cause is mental health, substance abuse, and some of these larger societal issues,” Rodrigue said.
In many ways Rodrigue sounds more like Phil Scott than her Democratic Party colleagues. She is walking a fine line between a more conservative fiscal policy and somewhat liberal to moderate positions on social issues. In Rutland County, she says that strategy may be paying off. According to Rodrigue she’s met voters who’ve said they are planning to vote for Scott and for her.
“I am winning some of that Republican base,” Rodrigue said.
Mullin said he’s been impressed with Rodrigue’s campaign, but he’s not convinced that if elected she’d maintain a fiscally conservative approach to tax policy and budget issues.
“I’ve seen so many people go to Montpelier,” Mullin said. “Once they get there, they fall in line.”
Though early voter turnout in Rutland City has been high, it’s unclear if voters will be motivated to head to the polls on Nov. 8. Candidates in both parties say they’ve been meeting a lot of voters who say they’re fed up with the national race and disenchanted with the electoral process.
“I hear more and more people at the presidential level want to vote none of the above,” said Flory. “That worries me. That they’ll be turned off and not come out to vote.”
Hooker echoed that sentiment: “I think the outcome is going to be heavily dependent on turnout and would encourage people to get out to vote.”