Editor’s note: This commentary is by John Sales, a geologist who has had careers in college teaching, petroleum research and old house renovation for affordable housing. He lives in Danville.
[A]s the Paris talks end, the world has many mega problems: drought, desertification, wildfires, land clearing and endangered species; migration and asylum seekers; global warming, sea level rise, dwindling glaciers and water; leaving too little petroleum in the ground for future infrastructure — such things as highway building, pharmaceuticals, plastics and fertilizer; energy and resource security into the future. All are interrelated. Huge pushback by special interests prevent their solution. Solving energy first gives the most leverage to solve the other problems. We won’t solve energy problems without entrepreneurial competition between the three largest polluters, the U.S., China and India, who also are the most capable of dealing with costs and technology. India has the world’s largest reserves of clean energy in its thorium sands.
The U.S. and China are working diligently on thorium nuclear reactors, and the U.S.’s Martingale Thorcon is ready to go, if politics and mistrust left over from Fukushima weren’t holding it back. Thorcons are modular, cheap, walkaway safe, with little waste risk. The U.S. has enough thorium to last it a millennia, India has enough to last the world a millennia. China is thorium-deficient, but what it has is already mined.
The U.S. should vigorously challenge China to a “moon-shot-like” but entrepreneurial duel to develop India’s thorium.
Southeast Asia has a huge and pressing interest in this — China’s pollution is epic and increasing. Their first red-alert kept all their kids home from school and indoors for a week. India is nearly as bad. But this huge load of pollution almost pales compared to the slightly longer-term water crisis. Himalayan glaciers water most of Southeast Asia and are melting rapidly. This has given a great and greatly misplaced sense of security — stream flow has been well above long-term average and increasing for a century. Since we always fill every niche available, this has encouraged vast overpopulation. Dwindling glacial flow will force billions to seek asylum elsewhere in a world already ravaged by the other problems. Add in those already migrating because of sea level rise and political strife and the resettlement burden will be beyond the pale.
The U.S. should vigorously challenge China to a “moon-shot-like” but entrepreneurial duel to develop India’s thorium — this would result in catastrophic lowering of global warming stress. All three should profit from the venture — it’s the only thing that will drive it forward, and final energy costs and carbon emissions would plummet. It would jolt the rest of the world into action — they wouldn’t be left behind. Congress should subsidize Martingale to get a working prototype and then begin subsidizing working reactors, one for one, in both India and the U.S. (like China, we already have thorium fuel stockpiled). When there are profits, Congress will get 5 percent of them until “the loan is paid off” and Congress has also recouped a 20 percent profit on the venture, at which time it sunsets. Existing energy companies might be given preferred stock in Martingale, to the degree that they agree to leave their formerly burned carbon in the ground. I visualize the future oil company viable as a regular oil company supporting the ongoing needs for infrastructure, such as asphalt for highways, and a healthy portfolio of thorium-generated preferred stock. Since Martingale has roots as ship designer/builders, also subsidize them to come up with a ship that is half Thorcon reactor and half fuel storage, that might be berthed anywhere to supply clean power.
