Editor’s note: Jon Margolis is VTDigger’s political columnist.
[W]ell, there goes an era.
What comes next?
It was the Peter Shumlin era in Vermont. It lasted four-and-a-half years, not quite as long as some (possibly including Peter Shumlin) thought it would.
But for those four-and-a-half years, Shumlin dominated Vermont’s politics and government. He didn’t get everything he wanted; no one does. But he got a lot, and for better or for worse (or both, or according to one’s taste), his era left its mark: more solar power, more preschool classes, more high-speed Internet, more treatment for opiate addicts.
Oh, and a health care signup mechanism that cost hundreds of millions of (mostly federal) dollars over three years and didn’t start working right (if in fact it is working right) until just the other day.
The Shumlin administration, of course, has another 18 months to go, plenty of time for the governor to continue to have an impact on Vermont’s laws and policies.
But the era came to an end Monday afternoon with his surprise announcement that he would not seek a fourth term next year. He will be the governor until the start of 2017. That means he gets to sign or veto the bills during next year’s legislative session. He will remain a force.
But a diminished force. On Monday afternoon, he became a lame duck. Others will be the agenda-setters at least as much as he.
Who will those others be?
To begin with, those who seek to replace him. That probably includes Lt. Gov. Phil Scott, the all-but-certain Republican nominee should he choose to run. It may include Doug Racine, who narrowly lost to Shumlin in the 2010 Democratic primary and was cashiered by him as secretary of Human Services; Matt Dunne, another contender in 2010; House Speaker Shap Smith, and … well, any one of a number of other Democrats who might contest what looms as a spirited, competitive primary next year.
Unless, a few Democrats suggested, U.S. Rep. Peter Welch decides that being governor would be more appealing than serving in what is likely to remain a minority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Welch, these Democrats predicted, could clear the field.
Welch is not ruling it out. His chief of staff, Bob Rogan, emailed: “It’s likely Congressman Welch will seek re-election to Congress but this news comes as a surprise so he will be taking the time he needs to thoughtfully consider how he can best serve Vermonters.”
Should he run, Welch might also waltz to the governorship. While Phil Scott is the most obvious immediate beneficiary of Shumlin’s withdrawal, in the longer term the outgoing governor may have done his own party a big favor.
In what remains a heavily Democratic state, and with a big turnout likely in a presidential election year, any untarnished Democrat would start out as a favorite, even against the popular lieutenant governor.
Shumlin was tarnished. For reasons great and small, good and bad, many voters – including voters who tend to support Democrats – simply did not like or trust him.
That was evident in November when Shumlin barely eked out a 2,434-vote plurality over his under-financed Republican opponent, Scott Milne.
The vote wasn’t close because thousands of voters decided they preferred Milne or a Republican governor. It was close because thousands of voters didn’t want to vote for Shumlin. Perhaps lulled by polls showing the governor would be easily re-elected, they either stayed home or went to the polls but didn’t bother to vote for governor. It was a personal rebuke.
By all appearances, popular discomfort with Shumlin, while possibly diminished, has not disappeared. No doubt that was a factor in his decision to withdraw. It isn’t that he couldn’t have been re-elected. But it would have been difficult. It would have cost a lot of money and most likely been unpleasant, especially against Scott. The two are not close friends, but by all appearances, they get along.
It wasn’t worth it.
He was making this announcement, Shumlin said, because “these next 18 months in office to be focused entirely on continuing the work we started together,” and he didn’t want politics to get in the way.
It isn’t necessary to dismiss the sincerity of that statement to suspect that there were several other factors, not all of them political. Every public person is also a private person, with his or her own life to live.
Like Vermont, Peter Shumlin’s life seems to be entering a new era. Near him as he made his announcement was the woman he introduced as “my partner, Katie.” That’s Katie Hunt, the woman many expect Shumlin to marry. The governor was divorced two years ago.
Politically ambitious though he was – and quite likely still is – politics has never been Shumlin’s entire life. He has a successful business in Putney, to which he said he plans to return. He’s 59 years old. A calmer but still busy life in his hometown with a new wife does not seem like a bad choice for a man that age to make.
But in politics, 59 isn’t that old, either, and Vermont may not have seen the last of Shumlin the politician.
“He’s decided to back out of politics for a while, regroup, and seek another office at another time. He’s got to let the dust settle.”
“He’s decided to back out of politics for a while, regroup, and seek another office at another time,” University of Vermont political science professor Garrison Nelson said. “He’s got to let the dust settle.”
Shumlin, who has endorsed Hillary Clinton’s presidential candidacy, could also get a presidential appointment should she win. He said Monday he would not go to Washington, but not many people turn down offers to be secretary – or even undersecretary — of … well, just about anything.
With his announcement, Shumlin made Vermont politics more interesting. A credible Republican challenge looms, as does a multi-candidate Democratic primary. Democrats, who as Garrison Nelson said have a tendency “to seize defeat from victory” run the danger of a contentious primary that damages their eventual nominee. But they had a multi-candidate primary in 2010, and the winner, Shumlin, was elected.
Democrats may have a problem with the single-minded fierce advocates of the kind of single payer health care plan Shumlin abandoned late last year. These true believers could threaten to back a Progressive Party candidate unless the Democratic nominee pledges support for a single payer plan, which the Democrat is not likely to do.
The new era could be lively.
