The picture of the slates going into the Aug. 28 primary elections and beyond into the general election is much clearer now, after the Secretary of State finalized the major party candidacies earlier this week.
With some 11th-hour filings before the June 14 deadline, such as Democrat Cassandra Gekas for lieutenant governor and Vince Illuzzi for state auditor, an initially sparse list of statewide candidates filled out. All incumbents except Secretary of State James Condos face opposition and both Republican and Democratic candidates are in the race for the vacant state auditor’s office.
Chairmen for both the Republican and Democratic state parties said they were pleased with their fields of candidates.
“Right now I’m very pleased. I think that we’re going to be pretty competitive at all levels,” said Vermont GOP chair Jack Lindley.
Even the Secretary of State’s office?
Despite no initial filings by a candidate to oppose Condos, Lindley said the GOP planned to field a write-in candidate opposing the incumbent Secretary of State.
Asked if he was especially confident about any of the races, Lindley’s optimism started at the top.
“I feel pretty comfortable about two races,” he said. “Well there’s a number of races that the Republicans are going to be successful at, and it starts at the top of the ticket. I think Romney’s going to do very well in Vermont, despite what the Obama people say.”
Lindley said the feeling in the Vermont GOP is reminiscent of the 1980 presidential election.
“The tide is rising rapidly for Republicans. It feels very much like it did in 1980, when Reagan ran against Carter, in Vermont,” he said.
Retired Middlebury College political science professor Eric Davis isn’t so optimistic about the GOP’s chances in Vermont. While Lindley says the GOP has a good shot at all statewide offices, Davis only favors the Republicans in the lieutenant governor’s office, which they already hold, though he said two others were “too close to call.”
“Lieutenant Governor Phil Scott will be re-elected certainly,” he said. “I think Cassandra Gekas would be very lucky to get somewhere between 30 to 40 percent of the vote.”
“I think if they have any chance of winning anything statewide aside from lieutenant governor it’s going to be treasurer or auditor,” Davis said of the Republicans.
Wendy Wilton is the GOP candidate for treasurer; Beth Pearce, the incumbent, is a Democrat. For auditor, Republican Illuzzi is vying against Doug Hoffer, a Democrat.
As for the governor’s office, Davis said Shumlin’s victory is almost certain, but the closeness of the race depends on Randy Brock’s campaign.
After the Castleton Polling Institute released a poll putting Shumlin firmly ahead in May, Davis says it’s up to Brock to close the gap.
“If there is some reputable public poll taken around Labor Day that shows Randy Brock has been able to cut that gap in half,” he said, “then I think we could be looking at a competitive race this fall.”
The Democrats face more primaries than Republicans in August, with a widely watched race between Chittenden County State’s Attorney TJ Donovan and Attorney General Bill Sorrell, both campaigning heavily in the AG race. Whoever wins the primary will face Republican Jack McMullen in the general election.
Various Senate and House primaries around the state stand to make Aug. 28 an important day for Vermont Democrats. Davis said the nine-candidate Democratic race for the six seats representing Chittenden County is worth keeping an eye on, as well as the Franklin County Republican primary. Both races, he says, will bring forward many issues and force candidates to make their positions clear during the primary season.
“Primaries present a great opportunity for people to really nail down what they stand for and rally the people that support them to come out to the polls,” said Jake Perkinson, chairman of the Vermont Democratic Party.
“Certainly I think the number of primaries in the Democratic primary demonstrates the strength of the party,” he said. Perkinson says he is confident all the Democratic candidates will win in November.
Before November or even the August primaries, though, is the July 15 campaign finance filing deadline, when all candidates will file a breakdown of campaign contributions with the Secretary of State’s office. Davis said that information will be telling for the rest of the races.
If either Sorrell or Donovan has a significant fundraising advantage come July 15, that will dictate the momentum of the race going forward, Davis says. The same is true for the Brock campaign.
“”If he can raise 300 to 400 [thousand dollars] by July, that should put him on track to raise about $750,000 by the end of the campaign,” Davis said, whereas he expects Shumlin to raise between $1 million and $1.5 million by November. Brock’s fundraising abilities, Davis says, will determine the pressure he can put on the governor.
Still, Davis said, Brock doesn’t have much of a chance at winning.
“The only question is: Is Shumlin going to win by 6 to 8 points – a close race – or is it going to be up into the teens?”
