Editor’s note: Jon Margolis is VTDigger’s political columnist.
[G]ov. Peter Shumlin and his fellow (if not always friendly) Democrats who control the state Legislature prepared Friday night to play a game.
The game is called “chicken.”
On the next-to-the last day of the 2015 session of the Vermont General Assembly, House and Senate leaders agreed on a state budget and on a tax bill that would raise roughly $30 million in higher taxes for fiscal year 2016.
That’s about $3 million more in new revenue and $3 million less in budget cuts than the governor said he preferred Friday morning on the Mark Johnson radio program on WDEV.
And it’s a small percentage of the $1.47 billion general fund budget likely to become law Saturday before the Legislature adjourns for the year. But legislative leaders, who have already cut into state services and programs in their effort to bridge what was once a $113 million gap between expenses and likely revenues, were in no mood to cut any more.
Shortly after 9 p.m., House Speaker Shap Smith said lawmakers had agreed on the budget and tax bills and would enact them Saturday before adjournment.
He did not say anything about an agreement – or even about negotiations in search of an agreement – between himself and/or Senate President Pro Tem John Campbell and Shumlin, or anyone from Shumlin’s office.
The Legislature, then, appeared ready to pass its budget and tax proposals and send them to the governor for his signature.
Or his veto.
They’re both playing chicken.
Neither on Friday morning’s radio program nor elsewhere has the governor explicitly threatened a veto. But neither has he ruled one out.
Even though it was Shumlin who proposed the biggest tax increase of the year – a payroll tax that would raise $90 million for health care, a levy neither body seriously considered — the governor has been portraying himself as the anti-tax budget-cutter, and at least by implication, suggesting that the legislative Democrats were big spenders too eager to raise taxes.
The Republican minority in the Legislature said it would vote to uphold a veto of the tax bill, and there are, this year, enough Republicans to sustain it, even if all the Democrats, Progressives and independents voted to override.
Still, the prevailing opinion in the Statehouse on Friday held that a veto was unlikely. Assuming that Shumlin plans to seek a fourth term next year – and despite his dismally slim victory over Republican Scott Milne last year, he certainly has been acting of late like a man intent on another term – the veto would be politically risky.
It would anger the governor’s Democratic base, making it more likely that he would face a primary opponent. And while it would please many of the upper-income taxpayers who would have to pay more, many, if not most, of them are Republicans who would be unlikely to vote for Shumlin anyway.
Besides, the tax increases, based largely on trimming some income tax deductions, are modest. They are not Bernie Sanders-style “soak-the-rich” tax hikes; they are Shap Smith center-left tax hikes.
Still, they are tax hikes, and not the only ones. This year’s Legislature has also raised specific taxes earmarked for improving water quality in the Lake Champlain watershed, and on Saturday will probably adopt a few more targeted tax hikes to pay for improving health care.
So the Democratic leaders of the Legislature have provided potential opponents with ammunition to mount a campaign against them as excessive spenders and taxers. It is possible – if not likely – that Shumlin would try to lead that opposition by vetoing the tax bill.
As is often the case, especially when the combatants are in the same political party, the political disagreement here appears to have become personal.
Chatting with reporters Friday afternoon, Smith said that while he had had a pleasant meeting with Shumlin on Thursday evening, the two rarely socialized.
Smith and his wife had been invited to dinner at Shumlin’s home after the end of last year’s session, Smith said, but he doubted the invitation would be repeated.
“That’s when he wanted me to be Speaker again,” Smith said, implying that Shumlin doesn’t feel that way any more.
It was casual conversation, perhaps even a bit light-hearted. Still, Smith’s willingness to suggest that Shumlin no longer considers him an ally at least raised the possibility that the feeling is mutual.
