Horse race
Vermont Public Radio reported this morning that Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie and Democrat Sen. Peter Shumlin are statistically tied in the race for governor, based on new polling information taken this week.
The poll, taken by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research of Washington, D.C., shows Dubie ahead by 1 percent.
Forty-four percent of those polled supported Dubie; 43 percent said they would vote for Shumlin.
The margin of error is 4 percent.
Eight percent of the respondents were undecided.
Shumlin’s has a favorability rating of 41 percent and an unfavorability rating 37 percent.
Dubie’s favorability rating is 50 percent; his unfavorable rating is 31 percent.
Forty-nine percent of those who preferred Dubie identified themselves as independents. Fifty-one percent of those who said they would vote for Shumlin were women.
About 5 percent of the 625 Vermonters polled in all 14 counties didn’t recognize Shumlin’s name; about 4 percent hadn’t heard of Dubie.
Read the full report: http://www.vpr.net/news_detail/89024/
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God, this is heartbreaking. Another two years of a douglas/dubie mess at the helm.
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Why Shumlin is Winning
I find it very strange that all the minor party candidates are listed with 1%. I have to assume that this did not come from actual poll responses, but was a statistical calculation by folks that don’t know Vermont.
For example: Ben Mitchell (of the Liberty Union), and Emily Payton won’t get 1% each. They are both in Shumlin’s back yard (at least that is where the LU gets most of their votes) and will not do well. They also are on the left, and any votes they get would draw from likely Shumlin voters (or at least anti-Dubie voters).
Also, while I would agree with many that our Second Vermont Republic candidate, Dennis Steele, will not do great, he will get more then 1%. I would say 2.3% is a more fair estimate. This is important because he will draw Tea Party like votes away from Dubie. All told I have him taking 1.3% from Dubie, and 1% from Shumlin.
So, if we say the Liberty Union will get 0.6%, and Emily Payton will get 0.3%, and Steele will get 2.3% and adjust the poll results to reflect this, Shumlin would net 1.2%. That would give him the slightest of slightest leads heading into the home stretch.
Making such an adjustment, I’d say right now it is:
44.2% Shumlin
42.8% Dubie
(For what it’s worth) In the end, I predict the following election day outcomes:
Shumlin WINS (decided in General Assembly): 48.2%
Dubie: 47.0%
Denis Steel: 2.3%
Others, Combined: 2.7%
Eric Davis, care to place a wager??
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Thanks, Dave. Do you think it will be that close? We’ll see. In the meantime, am going to do all I can for Shum.
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Thanks for the play by play Dave but I didn’t see any fudge factor applied for the fact that many will still probably vote for the lesser of the two evils in a poll this close just to prevent splitting. A vote for Mitchell,like you said will only hurt either Dubie or Shumlin. There are those who realize this and will vote accordingly.