Dubie is the top rainmaker in governor’s race; Markowitz leads Dems

Deb Markowitz, July 15, 2010

The numbers are in. And the winner is (for the most donors and the highest total) … Brian Dubie.

Dubie, the sole Republican candidate in the race for governor, is the biggest rainmaker of the six contenders for governor. He drew the most in donations — $943,960, and pulled the largest number of small-time contributors (under $100 donors) – 2,724.

Put together, the five Democratic challengers drew $1.49 million and attracted 3,426 donors of less than $100 for the primary election on Aug. 24.

The runner up? Deb Markowitz, hands down. The Secretary of State has collected $523,946 in contributions, and she has drawn 1,387 donors who gave $100.

Peter Shumlin came in second with $418,490 (thanks to a personal loan to the campaign of $150,000) and 390 small-time contributors.

Matt Dunne was third with $267,860 and 722 under-$100 donors; Doug Racine came in fourth place with $210,157 and 695 small contributors; and Susan Bartlett brought up the rear with $70,919 and 232 donations.

So what does all this mean? To figure that out, you have to examine X factors – who got into the race when, how much each candidate has been able to raise since the last reporting cycle, how much cash they have on hand and how much they’re spending – and on what.
As the lone mantle bearer for the GOP, Dubie is in a class all by himself. The lieutenant governor has raised nearly $1 million in less than a year. Dozens of his donations are more than $1,000 – and many of those are from out of state.

He has received money from major corporations – $5,000 from the General Electric Co. political action committee, $2,000 from Nicom Coatings Corp. in Barre and more than $6,000 from members of the Pizzagalli family, which owns a large construction company, for example. The little guys, the small donors who have contributed less than $100, number 2,724, and their contributions total about 14.6 percent of Dubie’s campaign contributions. More than $17,000 comes from the Friends of Brian Dubie.

Kate Duffy, communications director for Brian Dubie

Dubie has spent $455,116 – more than all of the other Democrats have managed to collect (with the notable exception of Markowitz) – on Web advertising, direct mail and staff. He paid the consulting firm OnMessage, Inc., a GOP consulting firm based in the Washington, D.C. area, $36,322; Public Opinion Strategies, a polling firm in Alexandria, Va., $26,500.
Does money matter? Sure it does, said Eric Davis, professor emeritus of political science at Middlebury College. He said Dubie is the only candidate who has a press secretary and a campaign manager at this point, in addition to field staff.

“What I found interesting is that he has spent more than half of what he raised already, and he’s not spent it on advertising, and he’s not travelling out of state,” Davis said.

Davis believes Dubie is spending a lot of money on fundraising staff and expensive direct mail campaigns, which cost 75 to 80 cents for every dollar raised.

“The Democrats are raising more money online, which tends to be more efficient,” Davis said.

Markowitz and Racine both got into the race early and had a head start on fundraising. Markowitz had more than $200,000, and Racine had just over $100,000, before July 15, 2009.

Though the total amounts the Democratic primary candidates have tallied are important, Davis said, what’s critical at this point is how much they’ve raised since they last filed campaign finance reports a year ago.

And based on that criteria, Shumlin and Dunne have begun to catch up, he said. Markowitz raised $333,209 in the last reporting period; Shumlin $418,490; Dunne, 267,860; and Racine $107,742. Bartlett is lagging far behind the others with $70,919.

Cash on hand is another factor. In this category, Shumlin is ahead with $218,000 in the kitty; Markowitz has spent two-thirds of her money and has $186,757 on hand. Dunne has $137,959 in cash; Racine has $75,886 on hand; and Bartlett’s bank account has a balance of $12,117.

Shumlin and Dunne were able to raise significantly more than Racine in just eight months, Davis said, while Bartlett has a “very steep road to climb.”

“Racine is probably disappointed, they’re going to spin it another way,” Davis said. “But they’ve raised only about $100,000 (this year). Markowitz, Shumlin and Dunne have raised roughly three times as much.”

Even if Racine ramps up his contributions, it will be a challenge for him to face off with Markowitz, Shumlin and Dunne, especially as advertising becomes more important closer to the primary election on Aug. 24.

Dennis Steele, Vermont Second Republic candidate for governor

The question is, according to Davis: “Are these endorsements, are the labor organizations in particular, going to be able to put boots on the ground to help Racine now that he’s at a disadvantage vis-a-vis Markowitz, Dunne and Shumlin?”

Davis can envision two different endgames on Aug. 24.

He said Markowitz could use her money and favorable polling to convince people she is the strongest candidate and win 40 percent of the vote and would have 10 percent more ballots than her nearest challenger.

In the second scenario, the primary would be a tight race, with four of the contenders garnering 20 percent to 30 percent of the vote, none of them opening up a significant lead, and Bartlett trailing behind, Davis said.

Correction: The Pizzagallis have donated more than $6,000 to the Dubie campaign, not $10,000 as originally reported. We apologize for the error.